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2005 Commercial GSO Demand Forecast. May 2005 Ethan E. Haase COMSTAC Technology & Innovation Working Group. Introduction. COMSTAC commercial GSO demand forecast Updated annually since 1993 Methodology is consistent over time, with ongoing enhancements to final product

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2005 commercial gso demand forecast

2005 Commercial GSO Demand Forecast

May 2005

Ethan E. Haase

COMSTAC Technology & Innovation Working Group

introduction
Introduction
  • COMSTAC commercial GSO demand forecast
    • Updated annually since 1993
    • Methodology is consistent over time, with ongoing enhancements to final product
    • 10-year forecast horizon (2005-2014)
  • Average annual demand is similar to 2004 forecast
    • 20.5 satellites per year vs. 21.1 satellites in 2004 forecast
  • 2005 Report presents updates on:
    • Estimate of “realization” of forecast demand
    • Growth in satellite mass and transponders per satellite
    • Respondents’ views on factors affecting demand
    • Industry developments that may affect demand
2005 mission model panel
2005 Mission Model Panel

Ethan Haase (panel chair) Lockheed Martin / International Launch Services

Alexander Liang (T&IWG chair) Aerospace Corporation

I-Shih Chang Aerospace Corporation

Lisa Hague Boeing Launch Services

Doug Howe Boeing Space and Communications

David Keslow Orbital Sciences Corporation

Debra Lepore Kistler Aerospace Corporation

Jennifer Miceli Tecolote Research / USAF/SMC/MV

Dave Pollock Rocketdyne

Kathy Shockey Space Systems / Loral

John Sloan FAA AST

forecast methodology
Forecast Methodology
  • Request 10-year projection of GSO satellites launched from satellite operators, manufacturers, and launch service providers worldwide
    • Individual demand requirements from operators
    • Comprehensive market inputs from manufacturers and launch providers
    • Projections by mass class
  • Develop Near-Term (2005-2007) Mission Model
    • “Bottom-up” forecast of launch opportunities by name
    • Consensus forecast based on most recent information
    • Individual inputs from operators used as available
    • Timing and likelihood of new opportunities agreed upon by panel
  • Develop Long-Term (2008-2014) Forecast
    • Average of comprehensive domestic forecasts by mass categories
  • Only “addressable” commercial GSO satellites included
    • Addressable satellites are defined as those open for internationally competitive launch service procurement
2005 survey
2005 Survey
  • Individual and comprehensive GSO inputs for 2005-2014
    • 26 survey responses received
    • 6 U.S. domestic companies provided comprehensive inputs
    • 3 international manufacturers / launch service providers submitted comprehensive inputs
  • Questionnaire on factors affecting market demand
    • 15 companies also responded to questions on how various factors affected their plans to procure new satellites
    • Responses compared to 2004 indicate shifts in views on the state of the market
2005 survey respondents
2005 Survey Respondents
  • Alcatel (France)
  • Arianespace (France)
  • Asia Satellite Telecommunications, Ltd. (China – Hong Kong)+
  • The Boeing Company* (U.S.)
  • Broadcasting Satellite System Corp. (Japan)+
  • Intelsat (U.S.)+
  • JSAT Corporation (Japan)
  • Kistler* (U.S.)
  • Lockheed Martin Space Systems Co.* (U.S.)
  • Loral Skynet (U.S.)+
  • MEASAT (Malaysia)+
  • Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (Japan)
  • Mobile Broadcasting Corporation (Japan)+
  • Mobile Satellite Ventures (U.S.)+
  • New Skies Satellites (Netherlands) +
  • Orbital Sciences Corp.* (U.S.)
  • Satmex (Mexico)+
  • Sea Launch* (U.S.)
  • SES Americom (U.S.)+
  • SES Astra (Luxembourg)+
  • Sirius Satellite Radio (U.S.)+
  • Space Communications Corporation (Japan)+
  • Space Systems/Loral* (U.S.)
  • Spacecom (Israel)+
  • Telesat Canada+
  • Thuraya Telecommunications (U.A.E)+

+ = Provided input on factors affecting demand

* = Provided comprehensive input

realization of demand
“Realization” of Demand
  • The COMSTAC GSO Forecast projects demand for launches of satellites
  • Several factors can affect the execution of a scheduled launch in a given year, including:
    • Launch failures
    • Launch vehicle delays
    • Manifesting delays
  • One or more of these factors have delayed missions each year that the COMSTAC forecast of identified demand has been presented
  • Manufacturing delays
  • Satellite component issues
  • Regulatory delays
forecasted demand vs realization
Forecasted Demand vs. Realization
  • 2004 GSO Report forecasted demand of 20 satellites to be launched in 2004
  • 13 commercial GSO satellites were launched in 2004
    • 6 satellites were delayed due to satellite issues
    • 2 satellites were delayed due to launch vehicle issues
    • 1 satellite projected for 2005 launched early
  • To give guidance on the number of satellites expected to be launched, the GSO forecast report includes a historically-based “realization factor”
    • Estimate of actual satellites launched introduced in 2002 report
    • Expected realization for 2004 was estimated at between 12 and 17 satellites launched
    • Methodology has evolved to present realization factor for the first two years of the forecast
2005 gso demand forecast and realization
2005 GSO Demand Forecast and Realization
  • Expected realization is based on historical analysis of difference between demand forecast and actual satellites launched
    • 2005 expected realization = 13-19 satellites (historical 1st year variance of 13% to 42%)
    • 2006 expected realization = 10-20 satellites (historical 2nd year variance of 10% to 55%)
historical demand forecast comparison
Historical Demand Forecast Comparison
  • 2005 10-year average about the same as last year’s forecast
  • 2005 forecast higher in near-term, lower in out-years
spacecraft trends transponders
Spacecraft Trends: Transponders
  • The average commercial GSO satellite carried almost 42% more transponders in 2002 that it did in 1997
  • Total transponders launched is projected to increase from 2004 to 2005, due mainly to the shift of several large satellites to 2005
  • The average satellite will carry fewer transponders in 2005 than in 2004, yet still more than the 2000-2003 average
spacecraft trends mass
Spacecraft Trends: Mass
  • Average satellite mass continues to increase; the typical commercial GSO satellite now has a launch mass of over 4,000kg
  • Total mass launched projected to jump in 2005 due to the launch of several very large satellites
spacecraft trends forecast by mass
Spacecraft Trends: Forecast by Mass
  • 2005 forecast indicates growth in average satellite mass will continue
    • Satellites in the 4,200kg to 5,400kg range increase from 7.0 per year in last year’s forecast to 8.1 per year
    • Satellites in the below 2,200kg category fell from 4.1 per year to 2.7 per year
international input comparison
International Input Comparison
  • 3 international companies provided comprehensive forecast inputs (Arianespace, Alcatel, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries)
  • The average 10-year demand forecast projection from the international inputs was nearly the same as the 2005 GSO demand forecast
  • One significant difference between the GSO demand forecast and the international inputs
    • International inputs projected more satellites in the 2,200kg to 4,200kg range than the 4,200kg to 5,400kg range
factors affecting demand
Factors Affecting Demand
  • Economic and market conditions worldwide continue to be challenging…
    • Capacity oversupply continues in some markets
    • Financing for new ventures heavily scrutinized
  • …But with signs of improvement:

Results comparison: 2004 & 2005 COMSTAC supplemental questionnaire

factors affecting demand17
Factors Affecting Demand
  • Rollout of new services
    • Ka-band systems providing HDTV and broadband services are rolling out in 2005 (e.g. DIRECTV; Wildblue)
    • Their success will determine future growth prospects in this segment
  • Private Equity buy-ins
    • Over the last few years, Private Equity firms have purchased stakes in many of the world’s major satellite operators
      • e.g. Inmarsat, Intelsat, PanAmSat, Eutelsat
    • The effect of the business plans of these new owners has yet to be fully seen, but their strategies will have a substantial impact on future satellite demand
comstac launch demand model feedback
COMSTAC Launch Demand Model Feedback
  • The 2004 and 2005 surveys included a feedback form for contributors to inform Working Group what is useful in the report
  • 2004 Feedback
    • Most companies use the report for market/business planning
    • Many respondents asked for easier report availability
      • Action: FAA AST and the Working Group will electronically distribute the report to respondents
  • 2005 Feedback
    • Different companies found various parts of the report to be most useful
    • Majority of respondents find the addition of the “realization factor” and the transponder & mass history charts useful
summary of findings
Summary of Findings
  • 2005 COMSTAC commercial GSO demand forecast
    • Average satellite demand 2005-2014 = 20.5 per year
    • Near-term demand is 22 in 2005, 22 in 2006, and 19 in 2007
    • Expected realization is 13 to 19 satellites launched in 2005
  • Average transponders per satellite and average satellite mass continue to increase
    • Compared to last year’s forecast, the 2005 forecast includes fewer satellites below 2,200kg and more satellites between 4,200kg and 5,400kg
  • Economic and market conditions continue to be challenging, with some improvement being seen
  • The success of new broadband services and the strategies of new owners should have significant impact on demand in the coming years