EEA air and climate change scenarios SoER2005

1. EEA air and climate change scenarios SoER2005 Hans Eerens May 7-9, 2003, TFIAM Haarlem EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE

2. Content • Introduction to SoER 2005 report • Which questions we propose to find an answer to for Air and Climate Change? • Which are the core indicators we propose to relate the questions to. • Options for scenario’s • Planning 2003 • Conclusions EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE

3. Outlooks in the SoEOR2005 report • An European environment outlook: • Relevant to the 6th EAP mid-term review and the EU SDS • Timeframe: 2020 and 2030 are the policy relevant timeframes; explorative approaches applied to the 2030-2050 time period; 2100 horizon is used for assessing environmental impacts • Scope: EEA 31 member countries • Quantitative assessments, whenever possible and appropriate. The 2005 report will incorporate quantitative and qualitative assessments for short- and long-term timeframes based on the development of both a baseline projection and scenarios. • Report any expected discrepancies between EU environment targets and the projections and give early warnings (see EEA’s mandate) • Integrate outlooks in each SoEOR2005 Summary report and sub-report, across sectors and themes

4. The SoEOR2005 report – Summary reports SOER2005 summary reports SOER2005 summary I: related to 6EAP SOER2005 summary II: Assessment of issues relevant but not yet Not covered by 6EAP/SDS e.g. sustainable consumption, enlargement Ecosystem goods and services Global responsibility climate change, – SOER2005 summary III: Biodiversity, resources extraction, technology transfer, trade, governance

5. SOER2005 sub-report proposals SR1 Changing consumption patterns and meeting the needs of the population SR2 Environmental aspects of enlargement SR3 Conserving ecosystems and biodiversity (Ecosystem goods and services) SR4 Sustainable use and management of natural resources SR5 Policy integration SR6 Climate change and the use of clean energy SR7 European Environment Outlook SR8 Global issues – Europe’s impact on the global environment SR9 Environment and health EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE

6. Objectives scenario development capability • Why outlooks are important to EEA activities: linking past evolutions and expected future to support policy makers. • Objectives of the prospective analysis at the EEA: • Provide prospective analysis across sectors and themes according to the SoEOR2005 report requirements, i.e. relevant to decision-makers and give insights (and early warnings if necessary) on what might be expected from the future. • Enhance the development of a long-term systematic approach to prospective analysis in the EEA-EIONET network so as to make sure outlooks are used in EEA regular reporting and that the SoEOR2005 report exercise is not a one-off event.

7. Where are we now in the process? EEA has produced first draft outlines of the potential sub-reports; started work on the outlines of the SOER summary reports; and started work on how to implement the SOER2005 activities During April-May we will finalise the proposal for the SOER2005 implementation plans and the draft outlines for the reports; This will be the background for activities and work plans in the coming 1½ years End May-June first discussions with stakeholders on the content of the SOER2005 report EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE

8. What are the key policy questions to be addressed for Air and Climate change (1): (1) What is the progress at the EU level in meeting the agreed emission targets in 2010 (Kyoto protocol and NEC-D)? • Distance to target approach • baseline required • costs (effectiveness) to achieve targets • Information from countries are essential for measuring progress and additional measures. EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE

9. What are the key policy questions to be addressed for Air and Climate change (2): (2) What is the state of the environment in 2020 assuming full implementation of current policies and 2010 targets? • Define indicators for assessing 2020 environment (3) What are the co-benefits of climate policies by 2020 for air pollution in terms of reduced emissions and reduced costs? (4) What could be GHG emissions for the EU (and asso- ciated driving forces), other industrialized and developing countries, from different equity and burden sharing perspectives and consistent with the EU long-term goal? EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE

10. What are the key policy questions to be addressed for Air and Climate change (3): (5) What are the uncertainties in 2020 in certain policy areas (climate change, transport, energy, agriculture) and socio-economic developmentsand how will this affect the state of the environment? • Economic and technology progress are uncertain • Society preferences • Impact on cost-benefit outcomes? EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE

11. What are the key policy questions to be addressed for Air and Climate change (4): (6) What will be impact and vulnerability of climate change effects for Europe and other world regions in the long run (2050/2100)? • Are we on the right track (to sustainability) • Can economic and technology progress help us, what are the risks if not • Society preferences will change over time, how can they affect our environmental targets, are our current policies robust and adequate for the LT. EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE

12. ACC Scenario Framework proposed methodology (I): four zones EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE

13. Proposed methodologyscenario framework (II) National SO2, NOx, NH3, VOC, PM emissions National/Regional GHG & SO2 emissions (global) Urban emissions Concentration/ Deposition GHG & S Concentration Urban Concentration Population Climate (change) Interaction Background • Impacts • Sea level • Ecosystems • Climate • Impacts • Health • Impacts • Health • Ecosystems • Response: . Ancillary benefits • cost- & environmental effectiveness EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE

14. Proposed methodologyscenario framework (III) EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE

15. Proposed (core) indicators Air and climate change (1) s Socio-economic and demographic driving forces (exogenous input) DPSIR GDP growth (total & by sector) D 1 Energy prices (by fuel type ) D 1 Energy consumption and production (total & by sector, fuel type ) D Population (total & by age, household) D Urban population (total & by age, density) D Transport growth (total & modal split) D Agricultural demand D Agricultural production (area, by live stock type) D Ecosystem (by type, area, critical load ) D Waste production (by type, e.g. landfills) D EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE

16. Proposed (core) indicators Air and climate change (2) DPSIR s Indicators for Climate change Emissions 6 GHG (total & by sector) P Emissions CO2 (total & by sector) P Emissions CH4 (total & by sector) P Emissions N2O (total & by sector) P Emissions fluorinated greenhouse gases (HFCs, PFCs, SF6) P 1 Effectiveness of policies and measures to reduce GHG emissions (by R gas/sector) Concentration GHG (total & by component, world/Europe) S Radiative forcing (total & by component) world/Europe S Temperature world/Europe (annual mean deviations) S/I Precipitation Europe S/I 2 Mountain Glacier extent I Growing season length I Global and regional river discharge I 2 Sea surface temperature I 1 P OLICIES AND MEASURES IN THE BASELINE SCENARIO 2 Method to quantify projections has still to be defined. EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE

17. Proposed (core) indicators Air and climate change (3) EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE

18. Proposed linkage indicators Air and climate change (4) EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE

19. Gap between GHG projection 2010 and target EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE

20. GHG projections Germany EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE

21. GHG projections Spain EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE

22. Long-term scenario 2030-2050/2100: technological and social changes • Can be tied to IPCC post-SRES stabilization runs • Bifurcations (e.g. fossil-fuel based with CO2 capture and disposal, hydrogen-renewable system) • Technological fix versus social innovation • Contribute to the development of sustainable pathways EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE

23. Links CC-AQ; other issues • Long-term scenarios GHG emissions sufficiently available? • Emissions of air pollutants to be updated/added? • European details to be added? • Possibly add CC&AQ impact indicators? • Co-ordinate with other ETCs: land-use changes, biodiversity, water resources, waste and material flows? EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE

24. EU Climate goal is consistent with 550 ppm CO2 equivalent and 450 ppm CO2 rather than 550 ppm CO2 only IMAGE S550 eq. IMAGE S650 eq EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE

25. Stab 550 / 650 eq: implications for GHG emissions 650 ppmv-eq ~ 550 ppmv CO2 550 ppmv-eq ~ 450 ppmv CO2 AllGHGs CO2 CO2 • S550 eq. : peak global emissions in 2015 and return to 1990 level in 2035 • S560 eq. : peak global emissions in 2025 and return to 1990 level in 2070 • Contribution non-CO2 approximately 100 ppmv EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE

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27. Climate regime: Contraction & Convergence 2050 Baseline • Emissions/capita converge in 2050 • Global emissions remain under emission profile Contraction and Convergence EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE

28. TIMER, Global, 17 region energy system model • Baseline scenarios / Mitigation scenarios • To analyze the long-term dynamics of the energy system, and in particular changes in energy demand and the transition to non-fossil fuels within an integrated modeling framework; FAIR, scanner for impact of climate policies • Future commitments • Overall costs of policies • Emission trading EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE

29. Comparison of the different models TIMER POLES PRIMES Energy system model Global, 17 regions (25) Global, >30 regions European countries 1970-2100 1995-2030 1995-2030 Medium detail Medium detail High detail Simulation Annual optimisation Annual optimisation All GHGs, many pollutants Most Kyoto gasses EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE

30. Scenario development CAFE -- EEA (1) EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE

31. Scenario development CAFE -- EEA (2) EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE

32. Choice of scenario’s: selection criteria • Which selection process can we use to reduce the number of runs? • A 3-step approach proposed: • Policy relevance – (What are we varying?) • Discriminatory potential – (how much are we varying?). • Legitimacy/acceptance (Do we do the right thing EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE

33. Conclusions (1) • Testruns 2003: two baseline variants, including some sensitivity runs for e.g. transport. • Elements unfavourable package: • Low oil/gas prices • Nuclear extension to 50 years lifetime in Europe <--- • Low support renewables • Moderate economic growth <--- • Moderate energy efficiency improvement • Slow enlargement EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE

34. Conclusions (2) • environmental favourable scenario package: • High fossil fuel prices, • High penetration of renewable sources (close to 12% target in 2010 and additional gains thereafter) . • Shift of agricultural subsidies to environmental and sustainable agricultural practices • Rapid technology change (e.g. hydrogen economy, fuel cells in the transport sector) • Carbon tax on CO2 emissions (including the maritime and air transport sector) • Global developments supporting strict sustainable/environmental targets • High economic growth <--- • Rapid progress EU enlargement • Economic structural changes (EU most competitive knowledge-based economy) EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON AIR AND CLIMATE CHANGE

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