science provides the unambiguous answer george white october 2008 revised july 2009 co2@palisad com
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CO2 Forcing: Fact or Fiction

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Science provides the unambiguous answer George White October 2008 Revised July 2009 [email protected] CO2 Forcing: Fact or Fiction. Many sources of information. Ice Core Data (ppt)‏ Atmospheric Absorption (ppt)‏ Satellite Observations (ppt)‏ Ground Based Observations (ppt)‏

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many sources of information
Many sources of information
  • Ice Core Data(ppt)‏
  • Atmospheric Absorption(ppt)‏
  • Satellite Observations(ppt)‏
  • Ground Based Observations(ppt)‏
  • Biology(ppt)‏
  • Physics(ppt)‏
the ice cores
The Ice Cores
  • > 400K year history from Vostok
  • > 800K year history from DomeC
  • The climate is far from constant
  • CO2, CH4 and Temperature are all correlated
  • The data tells us far more than this
    • What kind of changes are expected?
    • Which came first, the gas or the heat?
    • What are the periodic influences?
data smoothing
Data Smoothing
  • Data samples are intrinsically biased
    • Recent samples represent short term averages
    • Ancient samples represent long term averages
    • Different variables have different sample periods
  • Integrate samples over N years
    • Matches short term data to long term data
    • Matches temperature to CO2 and CH4
    • Isolate long and short term periodicity
    • Isolate long and short term dependency
correlation analysis
Correlation Analysis
  • Simple correlation metric for time Δt from t
    • Plus 1 when t+Δt changes in the same direction as t
    • Minus 1 when t+Δt changes in the opposite direction
  • Cross correlation identifies cause and effect
  • Auto correlation identifies periodic components
  • Use smoothing to select long or short term
  • Variable window to match Δt to sample period
cross correlation analysis
Cross Correlation Analysis
  • Can identify which of 2 variables changes first
    • Temperature and CO2
    • Temperature and CH4
    • CO2 and CH4
  • Smoothing is required to normalize variability
    • Smoothing does not mask cause and effect
    • Smoothing makes short term dependence apparent
domec cross correlation
DomeC Cross Correlation
  • DomeC has finer resolution CO2 measurements
    • Shows apparent correlation of CO2 to future Temp
    • Frequently misinterpreted as a causal dependency
    • Also shows earlier correlation to opposite change
    • This is an aliasing effect which really indicates
      • CO2 increase -> Temp Decrease -> Temp Increase
      • Indicates correlation across a period of unrelated change
      • Indicates interference from a periodic effect
  • When smoothing is applied
    • Same results as Vostok data
auto correlation analysis
Auto Correlation Analysis
  • Auto correlate temperature
    • Apparent short term periodic behavior
      • 200 year DomeC, 300 year Vostok
      • Seems to be aliasing of seasonal variability
  • Apply smoothing
    • Unambiguous 22K, 41K period (Vostok and DomeC)‏
    • Modulated peaks are evidence for other periodicity
    • Related to variability in Earth's orbit and axis
    • Related to sums and harmonics of this variability
  • Common to temperature, CO2 and CH4
combined effects
Combined Effects
  • The change between 96K and 41K ice ages
    • Considered by some to be a mystery
    • When the 41K, 96K and 500K forcing are combined
      • One can cancel or enhance the other
      • 96K is weaker, 500K is weakest, 41K is dominant
    • The pattern is clearly an interference pattern
    • We are entering a new age of 41K ice ages
      • Evidenced by current weaker, but longer interglacial
      • Currently approaching 500K peak
      • 41K and 96K peaks are separated by about 30K years
      • Stretching out the current interglacial
is this enough forcing
Is This Enough Forcing?
  • Some say that these effects are not strong enough
    • The periodicity clearly aligns
    • Magnitudes seem unexpected
      • 96K is weak, but appears dominant recently
      • Several 41K peaks have aligned with 96K minimums
      • This mitigates the magnitude of the 41K effects
  • There is a feedback effect at work
    • Hemispheric asymmetry and ice amplification
atmospheric absorption
Atmospheric Absorption
  • An objective review of atmospheric absorption is all that's required to disprove CO2 forcing
  • The atmospheric absorption spectrum is known
    • It has been measured and correlated to theory
    • Water vapor contributes about 2/3, CO2 is 1/3
  • Relatively transparent window from 8μ to 14μ
    • Weak ozone absorption in the middle
    • 7.5μ CH4 line on one side, 15μ CO2 line on the other, water vapor continuum absorption throughout
co2 absorption
CO2 Absorption
  • 15u CO2 line absorption
    • Highly saturated
    • Energy limited, not concentration limited
    • Double CO2
      • Insignificant increase in width
      • Primarily decreases mean distance before absorption
  • Other bands are between 2u and 4.3u
    • Narrower lines
    • Significant H2O overlap
    • Far less energy available to be absorbed
ghg forcing
GHG Forcing
  • The Energy Cycle
    • CO2 captures 15u surface energy
    • Collisions transfer energy to other gas molecules
    • Some energy gets back to the surface
    • The cycle repeats
  • Delays the release of surface energy
    • GHG flux is a circulating flux
    • Solar flux is an incident flux
satellite observations
Satellite Observations
  • 25 year history of detailed weather measurements
    • 10 km surface resolution
    • 3 hour time resolution
    • 100% surface coverage
    • Measurements include
      • Surface temperature
      • Cloud temperature
      • Cloud coverage
      • Reflectivities
observed variability
Observed Variability
  • Global mean temperature varies significantly
    • +/- 2.1˚ C seasonal variability
    • +2.1˚ in June, -2.1˚ in December
    • Sun is closest in early January, farthest in July
    • Global mean temperature changes oppositely
      • Indicates dramatic hemispheric asymmetry
      • Unambiguously supports Milankovitch forcing
    • Data calibration error around 2001-2002
      • This has been misinterpreted as 'evidence' of warming
hemispheric differences
Hemispheric Differences
  • Southern Hemisphere
    • 8˚K Degrees peak to peak variability
    • 276˚K mean
  • Northern Hemisphere
    • 24˚K Degrees peak to peak variability
    • 280˚K Mean
  • Equatorial
    • Small 6 month periodic variability
    • Clearly illustrates 2001/2002 calibration error
surface reflectivity
Surface Reflectivity
  • Northern Hemisphere
    • Higher mean
      • More land, less water
    • More variability
      • Greater range in surface ice
    • More time spent during higher reflectivity
      • More persistent ice coverage
  • Consequences
    • Sun closer in Northern summer -> cooler climate
    • Sun closer in Southern summer -> warmer climate
where is the sun now
Where is the Sun Now?
  • Sun is closest in early January
    • 3.4% more incident energy than average
  • Sun is farthest away in early July
    • 3.4% less incident solar energy than average
  • Nearly 7% total solar variability over a year
    • Corresponds to a 4˚C difference in temperature
  • Peak aphelion/perihelion differences are > 20%
implications of sun earth distance
Implications of Sun-Earth distance?
  • When Sun is closest during North winter (now)‏
    • Warmer seasons, ice shrinks
    • Ice shrinks, -> less reflected energy -> even warmer
    • Positive feedback stops once minimum ice is reached
  • When Sun is farther away during Northern winter
    • Colder seasons, ice grows
    • Ice grows -> more reflected energy -> even colder
  • Southern hemisphere climate is more stable
  • Equatorial climate is even more stable
ice amplification
Ice Amplification
  • A popular hypothesis is that CO2 forcing amplifies periodic influences of orbit and axis
  • As evidenced by hemispheric differences, small changes in reflectivity have big consequences
  • This is confirmed by energy balance modeling
  • Surface ice and snow reflects a lot of energy
    • Positive feedback reinforces this effect
  • Models show that the ebb and flow of northern hemisphere surface snow and ice provides all of the required amplification
ground based observations
Ground Based Observations
  • Thermometers, tree rings, etc.
    • Must be very careful here
      • It's invalid to compare short term changes to changes in long term averages
      • The most common mistake in climate alarmists arguments
        • The 'Hockey Stick'
        • Claims that temperatures are rising faster than ever
  • Mauna Loa CO2 measurements
    • Yes, CO2 is increasing, but ...
mauna loa co2
Mauna Loa CO2
  • Overlay Mauna Loa CO2 with global temperature
    • Temperature decreases as CO2 increases
      • Actually CO2 decreases as temperature increases
    • Clear biological response
      • More warmth, more plants, more CO2 is consumed
      • As it cools, plants die, decomposing into CO2 and CH4
    • Very fast acting
      • Responds to temperature changes immediately
      • Removing trend bias, the response is relatively linear
    • Short term response
biology
Biology
  • The CO2 and CH4 record reflects biology
  • Short term
    • More warmth -> more plants -> less CO2
    • Less warmth -> more decomposition -> more CO2
  • Long Term
    • Plants require Sun energy + CO2
    • Build up of CO2 required to support more biomass
      • More biomass -> more decomposition -> more CO2/CH4
      • More CO2 and Energy -> more biomass
    • Animals slowly catch up, increasing CH4/CO2 ratio
physics
Physics
  • Conservation of Energy
    • Precludes runaway greenhouse effects
    • Atmospheric absorption has no effect on the energy budget, i.e. Energy in == Energy out
  • Clouds and greenhouse gases, warm surface
    • Clouds trap far more energy than greenhouse gases
    • Greenhouse gases redistribute atmospheric energy
    • Greenhouse gas effects are primarily diurnal
is co2 forcing plausible
Is CO2 Forcing Plausible?
  • Ice cores
    • The recent rate of temperature change is exceeded in the data
    • Past temperatures were warmer with far lower CO2 levels
    • Temperature changes are correlated to orbit and axis variability
    • There is no correlation of temperature to prior CO2 or CH4 levels
    • Biology offers a complete explanation for CO2 and CH4
  • Atmospheric absorption
    • CO2 absorption is energy limited and not concentration limited
    • Water vapor is a far larger contributor
  • Mauna Loa
    • Increasing temperature is associated with decreasing CO2
  • Satellite
    • Ebb and flow of ice provides all necessary positive feedback
    • Hemispheric asymmetry amplifies seasonal differences
politics
Politics
  • Unfortunately, politics has subverted the science
  • Many want global warming to man made
    • There are convenient scapegoats
    • It's preached as the 'the right thing to do'
  • The issue fits too well as a left/right conflict
    • Guilt/greed
    • Environment/business
  • There's money to be made
conclusion
Conclusion
  • Natural CO2 and CH4 are indicators of biology
    • No forward feedback to temperature is in the record
  • To Solve Global Warming
    • All we need to do is wait
    • In geologic terms, another ice age is eminent
      • It's too bad that anthropogenic CO2 can't stop it
  • Spending money on CO2 mitigation
    • Absolute worst thing to do
    • No climate change reversal will result
    • Better spent on adapting to the inevitable
references
References
  • Data Hyperlinks
    • Satellite Data
    • Ice Core Data
    • Irradiance Data
    • Atmospheric Absorption Data
  • Science Hyperlinks
    • Milankovitch
    • Weather Satellite Data
    • Black Body Radiation And Stefan-Boltzmann Law
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