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UPDATED SITUATION IN THE DRC. H. J. BOSHOFF AND R. CORNWELL. SCOPE. BACKGROUND AFTER SUN CITY PRETORIA DEAL CURRENT MILITARY SITUATION INCIDENTS MONUC PHASE 3 AND PRETORIA DEAL CONCLUSION. BACKGROUND. 10 JULY 1999 SIX STATES SIGNED THE LUSAKA AGREEMENT

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Updated situation in the drc

UPDATED SITUATION IN THE DRC

H. J. BOSHOFF

AND

R. CORNWELL


Scope
SCOPE

  • BACKGROUND

  • AFTER SUN CITY

  • PRETORIA DEAL

  • CURRENT MILITARY SITUATION

  • INCIDENTS

  • MONUC PHASE 3 AND PRETORIA DEAL

  • CONCLUSION


Background
BACKGROUND

  • 10 JULY 1999 SIX STATES SIGNED THE LUSAKA AGREEMENT

  • THREE YEARS LATER AND THE PARTIAL FAILURE OF THE ICD(SUN CITY) DID NOT END THE FIGHTING IN THE KIVUS

  • MONUC NOT ABLE TO IMPLEMENT DDRRR

  • PRETORIA DEAL BRINGS NEW HOPE OF PEACE


After sun city
AFTER SUN CITY

  • AFTER SEVEN WEEKS OF NEGOTIATIONS AT SUN CITY A PARTIAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN KABILA AND BEMBA

  • END OF THE ICD WITHIN THE CONTEXT OF LUSAKA AGREEMENT

  • RCD-G AND RWANDA LEFT IN THE COLD

  • THE ISSUE OF DISARMING OF RWANDAN LIBERATION ARMY(ALIR) IS CRUCIAL, NO NEGOTIATIONS ON POWER SHARING AND THE WITHDRAWAL OF FOREIGN FORCES WILL SUCCEED UNLESS THIS ISSUE IS RESOLVED

  • THE PRETORIA DEAL IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE FOR THE FIRST TIME THERE IS EVIDENCE OF POLITICAL WILL FROM RWANDA AND DRC GOVT TO RESOLVE THE ISSUE.

  • THIS CAN LEAD TO FURTHER NEGOTIATIONS BETWEEN ALL ROLE PLAYERS, POSSIBLY FACILITATED BY PRESIDENT MBEKI


Pretoria deal
PRETORIA DEAL

  • THE PRETORIA DEAL ADDRESSES ONE OF THE KEY ASPECTS OF LUSAKA, THE DISARMING OF ALIR FORCES

  • PRETORIA DEAL PROVIDED AN INDICATION OF THE POLITICAL WILL FOR DISARMAMENT FROM THE DRC AND RWANDA, MONITORED BY A THIRD PARTY(UN AND SOUTH AFRICA)

  • IT IS FORESEEN THAT MONUC WILL IMPLEMENT THE DEAL AS PART OF PHASE 3, DDRRR

  • THE KEY TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE PROGRAMME INTER ALIA:

    • FINALISATION OF MONUC PHASE 3 WITHIN 15 DAYS OF SIGNATURE

    • ESTABLISHMENT AND OPERATIONALISATION OF ASSEMBLY POINTS WITHIN 25 DAYS OF SIGNATURE

    • DDRRR OF ALIR TO BE COMPLETED WITHIN 90 DAYSOF SIGNATURE

    • WITHDRAWAL OF RWANDAN TROOPS WITHIN 90 DAYS OF SIGNATURE


Pretoria deal contd
PRETORIA DEAL(CONTD)

  • ADMISSION BY DRC GOVT OF SUPPORT TO ALIR AND COMMITMENT TO COLLABORATE WITH MONUC TO DISARM THESE FORCES

  • DRC TO RE-ESTABLISH CONTROL OVER TERRITORIES PRESENTLY OCCUPIED BY RPA AND RCD-G, RWANDA INTERPRETATION IS THAT MONUC WILL REPLACE AND MONITOR THIS AREA

  • SECURITY CURTAIN

  • ISSUE OF TRACKING DOWN AND DISARMING ARMED GROUPS EVEN MORE PROBLEMATIC. IT IS BEYOND THE MANDATE OF MONUC.

  • RESPONSIBILITY OF DRC GOV IN CO-OPERATION WITH MONUC AND JMC IN TERRITORY UNDER DRC CONTROL. MOST FORCES DEPLOYED IN AREAS OUTSIDE. RCD-G DENIED DRC GOVT IF NOT PART OF INTEGRATED DEFENCE FORCE.

  • SOUTH AFRICA AS PART OF THIRD PARTY TO IMPLEMENT, MONITOR AND VERIFY THE DEAL


Pretoria deal contd1
PRETORIADEAL(CONTD)

  • SECRETARIAT ALREADY IN KINSHASA

  • ISSUE OF UN MANDATE, STILL UNCHANGED

  • TIME SCALES ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE, RATHER A SEQUENTIAL PROCESS, EACH STEP WILL REQUIRE THE PRIOR COMPLETION OF THE PREVIOUS ONE

    • DISARMING AND DISMANTLING OF INTERHAMWE AND EX-FAR ON D+10

    • DEPLOYMENT OF ADDITIONAL FORCE LEVELS BY D+15

    • WITHDRAWAL OF RWANDAN TROOPS, BEGINNING ON D+45

  • THE CAPACITY OF MONUC, NEEDS 4 TASK FORCES TO EXECUTE PHASE 3

  • PRESIDENT MBEKI PLANS TO GET THE POLITICAL PROCESS GOING IN THE DRC





Rebel groups strength
REBEL GROUPS STRENGTH

  • RCD-GOMA: 15 000

  • MLC: 10 000

  • RCD-K-ML: 2 000

  • RCD - N: 3 000



Military activities 17 to 29 aug 2002
MILITARY ACTIVITIES 17 TO 29 AUG 2002

  • SECTOR 1

    • MLC TROOPS MOVED FROM BASAKUSU TO ISIRO BY ANTONOV

  • SECTOR 2

    • LOW LEVEL AIRDROP OF AK 47 AND AMMO IN THE MANDRO AREA(15 KM EAST OF BUNIA) FROM BURUNDI

    • 14 AUG 16 CIVILANS AND 6 SOLDIERS WERE KILLED AT BOGORO(25 KMS SW OF BUNIA

    • UPC MILITIA CAPTURE A VILLAGE 60 KMS SW OF BUNIA


CONT

  • SECTOR 3

    • SHOOTING INCIDENTS IN BUKAVU, NORTH OF FIZI, PEPA AND PWETO

    • LOW LEVEL MAI-MAI VIOLENCE NEAR KINDU, 13 MAI-MAI WERE KILLED IN CLASHES WITH RPA 40 KM FROM KINDU ON KALEMI ROAD

    • 20 AUG SHOOTING CONTINUE ALL DAY LONG FROM THE OUTSKIRTS OF KINDU, RCD-G REINFORCED KINDU WITH 2 BATTALIONS, ONE FROM GOMA AND ONE COMPOSITE BATTALION

    • RCD-N AND UPC(HEMA MILITIA) ALLIANCE COULD DESTABILISE THE EAST


CONT

  • RCD – N VERSUS RCD – K/ML

    • RCD – N REINFORCED HEAVILY BY MLC PUSHED INTO ORIENTALE PROVINCE.

    • ON THE ISIRO MUNGBERE AXIS RCD – N RECAPTURED MUNGBERE WITH 1 X BN WITH THE INTENTION OF ADVANCING ON DURA

    • ON THE ISIRO –DUNGU ROAD, RCD – N HAS RETAKEN GANGA AND INTENDED TO CONTINUE TO FARADJE AND THEN LINK UP WITH THE TROOPS ON THE MUNGBERE AXIS

    • ON THE ISIRO – WAMBA AXIS RCD – N CONTROLLED WAMBA AND HAD ADVANCE TO BAYANGA IN THE DIRECTION OF NIA - NIA,

  • ZDF WITHDRAWL

    • 15 AUG, D COY 13 SADC BN WITHDREW FROMILEBO TO KANANGA AND WAS REPLACED BT FAC

    • ON 19 AUG A COY FROM ILEBO JOINED THE KANANGA BN

    • ON 22 AUG 1st MECH BN WITHDREW FROM ZEWE AIRPORT TO MBUJI MAYI


CONT

  • UPDF WITHDRAWL

    • UPDF WITHDREW FROM BENI, 1 X BN, GABOLITE, 1 X PL

    • 1 X BN STILL IN BUNIA ON UN REQUEST

  • RWANDAN MOVEMENT

    • 10 000 TROOPS MOVET INTO ITURI PROVINCE

    • 16 KM FROM LUBERO

    • 1000 RPA TROOPS SEIZING KASUO, 30 KM FROM LUBERO



Guiding principles of monuc ddrrr programme in the drc
GUIDING PRINCIPLES OF MONUC DDRRR PROGRAMME IN THE DRC

  • VOLUNTARY DISARMAMENT

  • LINKS WITH OTHER ASPECTS OF THE PEACE PROCESS

    • DISENGAGEMENT OF FORCES

    • WITHDRAWAL OF FOREIGN ARMIES

    • INTER CONGOLESE DIALOGUE

  • COOPERATION WITH OTHER AGENCIES

  • COMMUNITY PROGRAMMES

  • COOPERATION WITH NATIONAL AND REGIONAL GOVERNMENTS

  • TARGET AREA FOR DDRRR

    • EX FAR

    • INTERHAMWE

    • ALIR 1

    • ALIR 2


Concept of operations
CONCEPT OF OPERATIONS

  • STAGE 1: TRANSITIONAL OPERATIONS.

    • DEPLOYMENT OF COMMAND AND CONTROL, LOGISTIC, ENGINEERING AND GUARD ASSETS TO KINDU

    • THEREAFTER THE DEPLOYMENT OF ‘TASK FORCE I’ TO KINDU FOR DEPLOYMENT INTO STAGE 1 AREA OF OPERATIONS, FORWARD HQ IN KINDU

    • FORCE NOT BIGGER THAN 2500

  • STAGE 2: ASSISTANCE TO THE D3 PROGRAMME.

    • DEPENDS ON THE SUCCESS OF THE INITIAL DEPLOYMENT IN CREATING CONDITIONS OF CONFIDENCE AND SECURITY TO EMBARKING ON MEANINGFUL D3 ACTIVITY

    • SWIFT BUILD-UP OF TASK FORCES 2-4 IN STAGE 2 AREA OF OPERATIONS (NOT TO EXCEED 7000)

  • STAGE 3: SUBSEQUENT OPERATIONS.

    • SITUATION NOT YET CLEAR ENOUGH TO PREDICT THE SCOPE AND SCALE OF SUBSEQUENT OPERATIONS BUT THESE WILL BE UNDERPINNED BY THE FOLLOWING KEY CONCEPTS

      • EXTENT OF ANY MONUC RESPONSIBILITY FOR MONITORING BORDER SECURITY

      • TO LINK KINDU WITH KISANGANI, LUMUBASI AND KALEMI


Update on phase 3
UPDATE ON PHASE 3

  • KISANGANI OFFICE DEPLOYED AND FULLY OPERATIONAL

  • DATABASE AND INITIAL PICTURE OF THE ARMED GROUP SETUP

  • RECCE IN KISANGANI AND KINDU PERFORMED

  • 1ST INFORMATION CAMPAIGN PREPARED AND LAUNCHED

  • DDRRR DIVISION DEPLOYED

  • KISANGANI GUARD UNIT DEPLOYED

  • BROAD INFO CAMPAIGN STARTED

  • KINDU UNIT DEPLOYED

  • LOCATION OF DDRRR CAMPS IDENTIFIED


Assembly Areas

Priority

Presence of troops

Risk Assessment

Logistics

UAG to be Demobilised

Deployment

Remarks

Bukavu

1st

Low

Very good

ALiR, FNL, FDD, Mayi Mayi

1 Bat (-)

Kananga

1st

1 Coy (+)

Low

Very good

ALiR, WNBF, UNRF II, LRA

1 Bat (-)

Kalemie

1st

1 Coy (+)

Low

Good

ALiR, Mayi Mayi

1 Coy

Kamina

1st

Medium

Very good

FDD

1 Coy

1,800 unarmed and screened ALiR troops already present

Goma

2nd

1 Coy

Medium

Very good

ALiR, Mayi Mayi

1 Coy

Kindu

2nd

Medium

Good

ALiR, Mayi Mayi

1 Bat (-)

Main DDRRR headquarters

Manono

2nd

1 Coy

Low

Good

FDD, Mayi Mayi

1 Coy

Boende

2nd

1 Coy

Low

Good

ALiR

1 Coy

Beni

2nd

Medium

Good

ALiR, ADF, NALU, Mayi Mayi

1 Bat (-)

Uvira

3rd

High

Good

ALiR, FNL, FDD, Mayi Mayi

1 Bat (-)

Lubumbashi

3rd

Low

Very good

ALiR, FDD, Mayi Mayi

1 Bat (-)

Kongolo

3rd

Medium

Very good

ALiR, Mayi Mayi

1 Coy

Mahagi

3rd

Medium

Good

LRA

1 Coy

Gemena

3rd

Low

Very good

UNITA

1 Coy

Isiro

4th

Low

Good

LRA

TBC

Alternative to Mahagi

Shabunda

4th

Medium

Regular

ALiR, Mayi Mayi

TBC

Main UAG concentration area


Monuc and the pretoria deal
MONUC AND THE PRETORIA DEAL

  • THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE PRETORIA DEAL WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH THE MONUC STRUCTURE

  • MONUC PHASE 3 WILL BE THE MOST IMPORTANT ACTIVITY

  • THE THIRD PARTY SECRETARIAT (SA AND UN) HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED IN KINSHASA

  • THE SECRETARIAT COORDINATION MECHANISM WITH MONUC HAS NOT BEEN ESTABLISHED

  • SOUTH AFRICA WILL POSSIBLY PROVIDE THE FIRST TASK FORCE


Conclusion
CONCLUSION

  • INTERLOCKING PROCESSES TO SUCCEED:

    • THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE PRETORIA DEAL

    • THE EXECUTION OF MONUC PHASE 3

    • THE COMPLETION OF THE POLITICAL SOLUTION IN THE DRC

    • THE REGIONAL SUMMIT


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