Haiti Expert Mission Process Observations

Haiti Expert Mission Process Observations Statistical Back-Story Fritz Scheuren

Rules of Engagement • Goals of Mission • Validating Fitness for Use as a Basis for A Run-Off • Not Simply Conformance to Requirements • Voting Recommendations

Main Team Process Steps • Start Up Preparations • First Meet of Expert Mission • Initial Sample and Review • Forensic Driven Search • Results In and Report Made

Start-Up Preparations • My Background on Elections • Personal Knowledge of Haiti • Fits about Starts • Data Collection Straw Man • Well Chosen Experts

First Expert Meeting • Form, Storm, Norm, Perform • Colin’s Leadership • Steve’ Managership • Getting to Know Each Other • Getting to Task Right Away

Initial Sample Reviews • Getting Frame/List of Election Sites • Systematic Zonal Sample • Piloting Review Procedures • Replicate Team Workgroups

Team Process • Teams of Two Used • Checked by Repeating Cases • Comparison of Replicates Too • Sampling Error • Nonsampling Error

Forensic Directed Step • Reviewing Earlier Exclusions • Continuing Proven Reviews • Expanding to Check All SINs • High Vote Count Locations • High Participation Locations

Overvote Statistics • One Million Votes • About 50,000 Exclusions 5% • 1 Manigat 4% Excluded • 2 Martelly 3% Excluded • 3 Celestin 8% Excluded

Reports of Results • Some Personal Praise • Order of Top Candidates Changed • Missing Tallies Studied • Run-Off Recommendation

Reactions and Confusions • Initially the Mission’s Large Representative Sample was Misunderstood • Missing Voting Locations were a Limitation looked into but unable to model

Concluding Comments • Many Thanks for Your Attention • Contacts – Fritz Scheuren • Email – scheuren@aol.com • Phone – +1-202-320-3446

Haiti Expert Mission Process Observations