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Joe Kunches & Bill Murtagh NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SWPC Boulder, CO Space Weather Prediction Center Products and Services NOAA GPS/GNSS Workshop Boulder October 24, 2007
SWPC Forecast Office and ISES Event products tied to NOAA Space Weather Scales SWPC Customers Case Study: 18 August 2003 Severe (G4) Magnetic Storm Customer economic impacts Verification and Validation critical Vision for future products Overview
Assess, Predict, Engage, Advise & Inform Space Weather Forecast Office • Joint USAF/NOAA Center, staffed 24/7 • Provide alerts, warnings, watches, and scheduled products to non-DOD customers • Quality driven, verify forecasts • Aggressively strive for product improvement • Function as World Warning Agency for the International Space Environment Service
Introduced in 1999 Similar to Hurricane and Tornado intensity scales (1 thru 5) Three Categories Radio Blackouts, R-scale (Caused by Solar Flares) Solar Radiation Storms, S-scale (Caused by Particle Events) Geomagnetic Storms, G-scale (Caused by CMEs) Equivalent Physical Measures Radio Blackouts, R-scale: Solar X-ray Flux on GOES Solar Radiation Storms, S-scale: Energetic Proton Flux on GOES Geomagnetic Storms, G-scale: Ground-based Magnetometer deviations NOAA Space Weather Scales
DOE Nuclear Reg Comm Schlumberger NY/PJM Grid Ball Loral NESDIS/SOCC Digital Globe Boeing Lockheed Aerospace Echostar NASA Space Command ISS Astronauts FAA American United Airlines Northwest Continental • A few of the agencies and industries that rely on NOAA space weather services today: • U.S. power grid infrastructure • Commercial airline industry • Dept. of Transportation ( GPS) • NASA human space flight activities • Satellite launch and operations • DoD Operations Commercial Space Transportation Airline Polar Flights Microchip technology Precision Guided Munitions Cell phones Atomic Clock Satellite Operations Carbon Dating experiments GPS Navigation Ozone Measurements Aircraft Radiation Hazard Commercial TV Relays Communications Satellite Orientation Spacecraft Charging Satellite Reconnaissance & Remote Sensing Instrument Damage Geophysical Exploration. Pipeline Operations Anti-Submarine Detection Satellite Power Arrays Power Distribution Long-Range Telephone Systems Radiation Hazards to Astronauts Interplanetary Satellite experiments VLF Navigation Systems (OMEGA, LORAN) Over the Horizon Radar Solar-Terres. Research & Applic. Satellites Research & Operations Requirements Satellite Orbit Prediction Solar Balloon & Rocket experiments Ionospheric Rocket experiments Short-wave Radio Propagation Growth of Space Weather Customers NOAA Space Environment Center Sunspot Cycles
NASA Manned Space Flight May alter EVA’s during adverse space weather GPS Survey Operations Can’t work during storms Commercial Airlines Dispatchers change routes to accommodate conditions Missile Launch Operations Atlas launches include space weather information Electric Utilities Configure grid in a more robust/less profitable state Emerging Applications E911 Emergency Services Traffic Management Who Really Cares?
NOAA’s Space Weather Services ~ Economic and Societal Impacts ~
With the right mix of real time data Near the Sun Interplanetary Ionospheric Plus good models USTEC “Son of USTEC” Good predictions can be made August 2003 severe magnetic storm prediction is an illustration Forecasts of Ionospheric Conditions the Target
18 Aug 2003 G4 (Severe) Geomagnetic Storm Geomagnetic Alerts and Warnings issued to over 500 customers - Space Operations NASA/SRAG European Space Agency Canadian Space Agency Lockheed Martin Missiles and Space Space Systems/Loral Hughes Space & Comm Boeing Space Station more… Government NASA FAA US Nuclear Reg Commission NOAA/NESDIS/SOCC U.S. Department of Energy ITS NIST more… Transportation Virgin Atlantic Airways Ltd United Airlines Oakland Oceanic Air Traffic Control Ctr AMTRAK FAA/ATC more… Communications/Nav/GPS SES-Americom Johnson, Frank & Associates, Inc. AT&T Sat Comm Ops AT&T Network Operations Ctr COMSAT General Corp GE Americom ARINC INTELSAT more… Electric Power Electric Research & Management New York Independent System Operator Deer Lake Power Bonneville Power Administration American Transmission Company Virginia Electric Power Company more…
18 Aug 2003 G4 (Severe) Geomagnetic Storm – ACE EPAM ACE Electron, Proton, and Alpha Monitor (EPAM) Large mass ejection impacts ACE on 17 Aug Solar eruption occurred on 14 Aug • The enhancements in the low energy protons alerted forecasters to the strong • possibility of an Earthbound coronal mass ejection, over 24 hours in advance! • The magnitude of the enhancement suggested a strong magnetic storm was possible.
18 Aug 2003 G4 (Severe) Geomagnetic Storm – ACE SWEPAM The mass ejection impacts ACE on 17 Aug/1340Z – almost 66 hours after the eruption on the sun. Measurements at L1 provide 30-45 minutes leadtime before the mass ejection impacts the Earth’s magnetic field, but interplanetary magnetic field information will determine which warnings should be issued.
18 Aug 2003 G4 (Severe) Geomagnetic Storm – ACE Mag The Magnetic Field Instrument (MAG) Strong magnetic field measurements at ACE alert forecasters to potentially severe geomagnetic storming. • Forecasters wait for “rotation”, then issue K6 warning at 18/0439Z to over 400 customers. • K6 occurs at 18/0641Z – 2:02 Hours Leadtime!
Annual Number of Space Weather Products Issued During Solar Cycle 23 • The number of products above does not include the NOAA POES and GOES, or NASA ACE real time solar wind data sets, which account for over 14 million file transfers per month • Over 400 event-driven products were issued during each of the solar “minimum” years (1996 & 1997)
Service Begins Lockheed Martin Management NOAA space weather alerts and warnings are distributed by lead organizations to sister agencies and subordinate groups… NASDA (Japan) Mission Control CSA (Canada) Mission Control • NASA Mission Control • NASA Management • Flight Control • Biomedical Engineers • Surgeon ESA (Europe) Mission Control NASA Space Radiation Analysis Group RSA (Russia) Mission Control NOAA/SEC Radiation Alert/Warning Russian Inst. Biomedical Problems
46 ACE RTSW Data Displays on the SEC Public Web Site: • 35 updating plots • 8 real-time lists • 3 special displays for S/C location, tracking, and current conditions "dials" • Extensive Usage of Real Time Solar Wind Data • A million ACE solar wind files are downloaded from the SEC FTP server every month by nearly 25,000 unique customers • SEC's public internet serves 4.8 million ACE RTSW data display files every month ACE RTSW customers are from 62 domains, the top users: Japan U.S. Government .com (commercial) United Kingdom Education .net (commercial) Germany Russia Australia Belgium
Total (Estimated) Number of Space Weather Models Driven or Validated by ACE Solar Wind Data • SEC is unable to fund transition of critical models into operations • Without additional resources, the gap above will continue to grow • Customer demands for regional specification/forecasts - unmet • ACE data directly drives five of the eleven SEC space weather watches and warnings, and influences the remaining six
Average Monthly NOAA/SEC Internet Traffic and Customer Summary • Web Site: More than 30 million files transferred each month. • ~500,000 files created monthly with near-real-time data for 176 products • more than 250,000 unique customers per month • customers from 150 countries • NOAA/SEC has end-to-end system responsibility for universally used space environment data acquired by the GOES and POES environmental satellites. SEC also supplies real time solar wind data from the NASA ACE satellite. • A million solar wind files are downloaded from the SEC FTP server every month by nearly 25,000 unique customers • Eight million GOES file transfers per month (web only) • – 140,000 unique users monthly • Five million POES file transfers per month (web only) • – 185,000 unique users monthly • – 30-40% of all NOAA/SEC customers use POES data All the above numbers reflect monthly usage near solar minimum!
NOAA/SEC Real Time Data - an absolute requirement to support worldwide DoD operations >80% of ALL DoD space wx alerts/warnings rely on NOAA data NOAA/SEC Data (Primarily Satellite) STRATCOM Space Command USAF Air Force Weather Agency Army and Navy Operations Missile Defense Agency National Reconnaissance Office U.S. Northern Command and NORAD Joint Space Ops Center - Critical loss of radar target tracking or creates false targets - Launch trajectory errors & payload deployment problems - Direct radiation hazard to high altitude aircrews - HF radio blackouts – comm impact to sensitive operations - SATCOM interference/downlink problems - Impede SAR (search & rescue) operations National Security Impacts
The direct global economic impact of SW has been estimated at about $200 M per year Rationale and Requirements for A Space Weather Programme (Richard B. Horne, 2001), 3. US Department of Defense spends $500M per year to mitigate space weather effects Storms from the Sun (Carlowicz and Lopez, 2002), 128. Between 6/00 and 12/01 space weather added $650 million of costs to the wholesale price of electricity in one power pool in the U.S. ($433 million/yr) Space Weather and the Electricity Market (Forbes & St. Cyr, 2002) Some Economic Estimates Williamson et al, Space Policy Institute The George Washington University
Ionospheric disturbances result in system failure, loss of phase lock, and position errors A 1% gain in continuity and availability of GPS would be worth $180M per year Benefits of a European Space Weather Programme (DERA, 2000), 21. Navigation Systems and GPS Williamson et al, Space Policy Institute The George Washington University
GIC in transmission lines cause: Power surges, network supply interruptions, transformer damage, and reduced lifetime of components – and any single failure can develop into cascading damages and outages A geomagnetic storm in 1989 caused $13.2M in damage to power systems operators in Quebec, and another $27M to power operators in NJ; additional social and direct economic costs to customers Natural Resources, Government of Canada Electric Power: Geomagnetically Induced Currents Williamson et al, Space Policy Institute The George Washington University
Oak Ridge National Laboratory estimates that a GIC- induced black out in the NE could result in $3-6B loss in GDP Earth in Space, Vol. 9 No 7 1997 Space weather in deregulated grid can cause the cost of electricity to jump from $15 to $68 per MW on spot market Forbes & St. Cyr, 2002 Cost of shielding power lines from GIC is prohibitive, some preventive measures can be taken with prediction notice Storms from the Sun, 104. After 1989, Hydro-Quebec spent $1.2B on capacitors to prevent flow of GIC direct current New Scientist “Fire in the Sky” 1999 Electric Power Williamson et al, Space Policy Institute The George Washington University
Space weather is a serious consideration for spacecraft designers, satellite operators, and space insurance companies Estimated annual benefit of avoiding space weather losses: $11M Benefits of a European Space Weather Programme, 20. In 1989, a space weather storm caused such significant orbital decay that Air Force Space Command lost track of 1,300 of the 8,000 objects under observation to orbital decay Of possible concern to human spaceflight crews SW loss of a satellite could be confused with a hostile act by an adversary or potential adversary Satellites & Spacecraft Williamson et al, Space Policy Institute The George Washington University
In March 1989, 7 geostationary satellites made 177 orbital adjustments in 2 days, more than normally made in a year, reducing the satellites’ useful life Storms from the Sun, 98. Spacecraft insurance companies paid out $500M between 1994-1999 for on-orbit failures (some from space weather effects) Space Environment Center Topic Paper: Satellites and Space Weather In 1998-2000, space insurance payouts = twice premiums Benefits of a European Space Weather Programme, 27. Improved space weather prediction could provide insurers with better risk assessment capabilities Satellites Williamson et al, Space Policy Institute The George Washington University
In 1997, destruction of AT&T’s Telestar satellite disrupted TV networks and part of the US earthquake monitoring network, and forced renegotiation of the sale of Telestar, resulting in a drop of $234M in value Storms from the Sun, 132. Disruptions to government satellites cost about $100M per year, with potential to be reduced by 50% through improved anomaly diagnostics Benefits of a European Space Weather Programme, 21. Space Launch Space weather exacts extra costs for space launch when it causes launches to be delayed With 2 days warning of solar proton events, Arianespace could save up to $2.5M per year (Benefits of Space Weather Programme) Satellites Williamson et al, Space Policy Institute The George Washington University
Creating Valuable Space Weather Products:Transition and Verification at SEC Space Weather Operations Kent A. Doggett NOAA Space Environment Center Space Weather Operations Boulder, Colorado, USA Space Weather Week May 19–22, 2003
Forecasts, Forecasts, Forecasts!!! IF GOES, STEREO, and SDO give better solar observations AND ACE, STEREO, KwaFu give the solar wind propagating earthward PLUS CORS, COSMIC give ionospheric conditions globally THEN USTEC and newer renditions give predictions for Positioning /Navigation/Timing (PNT) users External User Base continues to grow Electronic navigation (GPS III, Galileo, Glonass, Compass, etc., plus backup system eLoran) Commercial providers, per recent interaction with AGI NextGen, E911/E112, ADS-B implementations all rely on GPS/GNSS to be the best it can be Internal to NOAA, User Base also expanding Airborne, marine, ground surveying all need optimal GPS/GNSS Future Products