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Climate Prediction Center Products, Services, Partnerships

Climate Prediction Center Products, Services, Partnerships. for Dr. Chet Koblinsky, Director NOAA Climate Office NOAA Climate Program Jim Laver Climate Prediction Center www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov. Climate Prediction Center.

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Climate Prediction Center Products, Services, Partnerships

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  1. Climate Prediction Center Products, Services, Partnerships for Dr. Chet Koblinsky, Director NOAA Climate Office NOAA Climate Program Jim Laver Climate Prediction Center www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

  2. Climate Prediction Center Mission: CPC serves the public by assessing and predicting the impacts of short-term climate variability, emphasizing enhanced risks of weather related extreme events, for use in mitigating losses and maximizing economic gains. Vision: To strive for “Climate Predictions” to be as reliable and applicable as weather predictions.

  3. NWS Seamless Forecast Suiteand CPC’s Role Forecast Uncertainty Outlook Years Seasons Guidance Months Threats Assessments 2 Week Forecast Lead Time 1 Week Forecasts Days Watches Hours Warnings & Alert Coordination Minutes Benefits Energy Health Reservoir Control Space Operation State/Local Planning Agriculture Recreation Commerce Ecosystem Hydropower Protection of Life & Property Environment Fire Weather Flood Mitigation & Navigation Transportation Boundary Conditions Initial Conditions

  4. CPC FY03 Budget 5.4 M - Climate Predictions and Assessments - Baseline 1.1 M - NOAA: OAR (COSP, OGP*); NWS/IA 1.0 M - Other Agencies (USAID, NASA) ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 7.5 M - Total * -- through proposals to PACS, GEWEX, GAPP, C2D2, NDSC

  5. CPC Federal and Support Staff

  6. CPC - NCEP Technical Operating Plan (NTOP) Total 75.60

  7. Trends Climate Change Weather Climate Variability Extreme Events Tropical Storms Droughts/Floods Tropics - El Niño, La Niña Extratropics - Jet Patterns Climate and Weather

  8. Climate Prediction Center Activities • Monitoring (includes Climate “Nowcasting”) • Outlooks (GPRA Measure - U.S. Seasonal Temp.) • Applied Research • Dissemination – Internet, AWIPS, NAWIPS • Outreach – with NWS/OWWCS/CSD (Livezey) • Partnerships – Internal NOAA; External • International Activities How CPC Improves the above 4

  9. Historical Data Base Real-Time Obs CLIMO Applied Research Outlooks Dynamical Models Dissemination User Feedback How CPC’s 4 Major Activities Integrate Monitoring Statistical Models 5

  10. Climate Monitoring • State of Global Oceans • Global Precipitation and Surface Temperature Anomalies • Atmospheric Circulation • Drought • Stratospheric Circulation / Ozone

  11. Climate Monitoring 8

  12. Climate Outlooks • Tropical Pacific SSTs • Seasonal Precipitation and Temperature Anomalies • Monthly Precipitation and Temperature Anomalies • Seasonal Drought Outlooks • Seasonal Hurricane Outlooks • Days 6-10 and 8-14 Outlooks • Hazard Assessments – Day 3-14 – Weather/Climate Connection • UV Index

  13. Climate Outlooks Official Sfc. Temp. Seasonal Outlooks 11

  14. Climate Outlooks • Tools for Seasonal/Monthly Outlooks • Empirical (Regressions, Composites, Trends,…) • Dynamical (Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Models)

  15. Improving Extended-range Predictions: Challenges and Issues • Understanding “natural variability” in GPRA measure • Post-processing of model forecasts (i.e., calibrations); Multi-model ensembles • Climate analysis – e.g., Reanalysis – Ongoing….OACS • Climate attribution – Reanalysis plat a key role • Model improvements for seasonal predictions • Sub-seasonal Predictions; Coupled model based MJO predictions • Statistical reliability of numerical forecasts • Computing and personnel support • Outreach

  16. Measuring Success: U.S. Temperature Skill GPRA Measure: 48-month running average of U. S. seasonal temperature skill score reported on an annual basis. A measure of NOAA’s investment in seasonal climate variability efforts.

  17. Climate Outlook GPRA Measure U.S. Seasonal Temperature Skill 0.5 Month Lead – 4 Year Run vs. GPRA Goal 12

  18. Seasonal Temperature GPRA Measure • Inherent Problem: Intrinsic climate variability (and associated fluctuations in seasonal predictability) does not permit a monotonic increase in time-averaged skill . Therefore, fluctuations in GPRA measure are to be expected. • Alternatives: • An GRPA measure which would be less sensitive to natural fluctuations in climate regimes and more sensitive to improvements in prediction methodologies • Improvements in seasonal prediction tools • Implementation of next global coupled seasonal forecast system in FY04

  19. Applied Climate Research Climate Diagnostics and Attribution Teleconnections Model Diagnostics Atmospheric and Oceanic Predictability Prediction Tools 18

  20. Climate Outreach Products Accessible via Internet/Web OWWCS Climate Service Division Activities Annual Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop Climate Diagnostics Bulletin Annual Climate Review Press Releases and Press Conferences USDA; USAID; USGS; FEMA; DoD 19

  21. Climate Outreach 20

  22. Partnerships • NWS • EMC (dynamical seasonal predictions; week-2 outlooks; Reanalysis – Ongoing Analysis of the Climate System) • TPC (Hurricane Season Outlooks) • HPC (International Desks, WX/CX connection/hazards, HydroMet Testbed) • OPC and SPC (Hazards Assessments) • Climate Services Division (outreach; user feedback; identifying user needs; education) • WFOs – (drought, product dissemination/interpretation ) 21

  23. Partnerships • NOAA • CDC (seasonal outlooks; week-2 outlooks; climate monitoring; ENSO outlooks; climate variability research; climate attribution and Reanalysis….; MOU) • GFDL (global ocean models; ocean data assimilation; climate attribution) • NCDC (climate monitoring; drought monitoring and outlooks; annual climate summaries; MOU) • OGP (applied research support; ARCs) • AOML (Seasonal Hurricane Outlooks) 22

  24. NCEP-CDC Collaboration – D+8 Temp Skill

  25. Partnerships • Inter-agency • USDA (drought monitoring and outlooks; global crop monitoring related Wx/Cx support; Crop Bulletin) • NASA/GMAO (seasonal and intraseasonal outlooks; Ozone monitoring) • EPA (ultraviolet monitoring and forecasts) • DoD (ultraviolet monitoring) • FEMA (seasonal and extended-range forecasts) • USAID (humanitarian support; climate monitoring) • DoE (heating/cooling degree days) 23

  26. Partnerships • External • IRI (dynamical forecasts/tools; Advisory Board) • COLA; U WA; Scripps; COAPS (seasonal outlooks; applied research) • Bi-lateral agreements (China, Korea, Vietnam) • Canada; Mexico (North American Drought Monitor; North American Monsoon Eexperiment) • WMO (ENSO outlooks; Int’l Regional Climate Centers) • International Desks (African Desk, South American,….) • Pacific (Monthly New Zealand/PR conference calls) 24

  27. Other International Activities Global Precipitation Climatology Project Climate/Weather Hazards– Africa, Central America, SW Asia - USAID Humanitarian Effort Mekong and Yellow River rainfall estimation Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Climate Network WMO expert team on verification and heat/health warnings 25

  28. Climate Outlooks • Users of Climate Outlooks • Water Resources Managers • Energy Production Managers • Retailing Business • Emergency Managers • Agriculture • Recreation • Weather Derivatives 17

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