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Coastal Inundation Forecasting for Vulnerable Populations

The Coastal Inundation Forecasting Demonstration Project aims to enhance coastal inundation forecasting systems to reduce vulnerability in coastal areas and protect vulnerable populations from flooding. This project integrates various forecasting models and provides specialized training for operators and disaster managers.

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Coastal Inundation Forecasting for Vulnerable Populations

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  1. World Meteorological OrganizationWorking together in weather, climate and water JCOMM-CHy Coastal Inundation Forecasting Demonstration Project (CIFDP) WMO

  2. Coastal Flooding & Vulnerable Populations • Coastal populations are rapidly growing worldwide – more than 44% people live within 150km of the coast • Coastal inundation threatens lives and livelihoods • Historically, storm surges have killed more people than winds by Tropical Cyclones, and inundation from earthquake-triggered tsunamis • Storm surges are the most underestimated and misunderstood of natural hazards

  3. Reducing vulnerability in coastal areas • Recognizing the extreme vulnerability of coastal areas and reducing the risk of disaster is a priority in WMO, the Joint IOC-WMO Technical Commission for Oceanography and Marine Meteorology (JCOMM) and the Commission for Hydrology (CHy). • The Coastal Inundation Demonstration Forecasting Project (CIFDP) was established in 2009 – a partnership between WMO, JCOMM and CHy. • It’s a multi-hazard early warning system, integrating river flow, storm surge, wave and flood forecasting to enhance coastal inundation forecasting and warning systems, that can be sustained by the responsible national agencies.

  4. End-to-end Coastal Inundation Management Forecasting and Warning sytems Policy / Management Seismic Obs. Tsunamis Coastal Flooding Storm Surges Sea Level Observations Real-time Data transmisison + dissemination of products Modelling (Forecasting / Hindcasting) Extreme Waves Wind, hydrometeorological Observations Regulations / Policy Adaptation Post-event survey, Mapping Socio-economic analyses DEM, Bathymetry Planning Tides Sea Level Rise / Climate Change Hydrological Flooding CHy ICAM

  5. CIFDP Implementation: 4 countries (currently) http://www.jcomm.info/CIFDP Caribbean Bangladesh Fiji Indonesia Natural Disaster Hotspots: A Global Risk Analysis. World Bank, 2005 Anticipated completion 2019

  6. CIFDP: Overall Aim • Reliable open source coastal inundation end to end operational forecasting and warning system • Specialized training for operators/forecasters and disaster managers • Cross-cutting cooperation among different scientific disciplines and user communities

  7. CIFDP: How ? • Being implemented on national and regional scales to support end-user needs – on completion, forecasting will be provided by National Meteorological and Hydrological Services • Phased approach – with collaboration between individuals and institutions with expertise in storm surge, wave and hydrological flooding • Focused on transfer of technology to adopting countries, particularly for developing capacity in the met and hydrological services • Public outreach – increasing awareness of storm surges - important • Demonstration projects – other countries are encouraged to join

  8. No storm surge, wave or inundation forecasting is presently done in Bangladesh. CIFPD Bangladesh Implementation along entire Bangladesh coast

  9. Scope of CIFDP-Bangladesh • Focus on the following sources of coastal inundation: • Wind driven storm surge from tropical cyclones (episodic) • Riverine flooding included, primarily for storm surge inundation, not as a sole source of inundation • Tides • Waves are not being considered independently, but included within the storm surge modelling • Sea Surface Height Anomaly (SSHA) not considered significant

  10. Coastal Inundation ForecastingSystem Requirements • Models for storm surge, waves, river flood (or river flow data) in real time or non real time • Tidal data • bathymetry and Digital Elevation Model • Integrating shell • Post-processing and products • post–event survey data, including wave and water level measurements, extent and depth of inundation for validation • computing capacity • communication capacity • available staff resources • training

  11. CIFDP-B: Governance Context • Funding: USAID • Overall Co-ordination: WMO (Marine Meteorology and Oceanography Division, Hydrological Forecasting and Water Resources Division), support from JCOMM and CHy • Overall Guidance: CIFPD Project Steering Group (PSG), Co-Chairs Val Swail and Yuri Simonov • National Coordination Team: Led by BMD (examples of other local stakeholders include Cyclone Preparedness Programme, Bangladesh Navy and Water Resources Planning Organization) • System Developer: Mr B Fahkruddin (independent consultant), and Dr Nadao Kohno from Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)

  12. CIFDP-Bangladesh: Progress so far…. • February 2013, Definitive National Agreement signed by Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD), Dept for Disaster Management (DDM), Cyclone Preparedness Programme (CPP), Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System for Africa & Asia (RIMES) • January 2014, National Capacity Assessment published • January 2014, User Requirements Plan (for Phase 1) published • February 2014, System Design Plan published (end of Phase 1) • December 2014, Storm Surge Model complete, and integration with river flood model. First training course carried out • April 2015, Pre-operational testing completed

  13. Coming up…. • October 2016, in Dhaka: • 2nd Training Course for Forecasters on Coastal Inundation; and • End to End Forecast Simulation Exercise Bangladesh • If all goes to plan with the simulation, the system should go live in 2017 • CIFPD Bangladesh will be the 1st CIFPD for completion, amongst the 4 sub-projects. • Evaluation of it’s benefits will be useful for encouraging other countries in the region with similar coastal inundation issues, to adopt the multi-hazard EWS. • If there is an interest from Myanmar, now is an ideal time to discuss with the WMO Secretariat, prior to the upcoming overall CIFDP Project Steering Group meeting, and the CHy (2016) and JCOMM Sessions (2017)

  14. CIFDP and links to RAII (Asia) - SWFDP, TCC • Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP) for the Bay of Bengal and South East Asia, since 2010. Focus on improved forecasting and early warning for damaging rain, winds and waves. • RAII Tropical Cyclone Committee Meeting, India (May 2016) – discussion on the CIFDP – strong links between cyclone events and destructive coastal surge/inundation. The TCC for RAII are supportive of the CIFPD project in Bangladesh.

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