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Predicting Summer Low Flows Using Winter Recharge: A Preliminary Study on Drought Forecasting

This preliminary draft outlines a study focusing on the prediction of summer low flows based on winter recharge data. It aims to ascertain the likelihood of drought flows extending beyond 30, 60, or 90 days in advance, allowing for timely drought response mobilization. Key objectives include linking critical winter rainfall during the recharge months (November to February) to summer stream flow and using Maximum Likelihood Logistic Regression (MLLR) to forecast low-flow probabilities. The study builds upon historical data and collaboration with USGS and VA-DEQ.

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Predicting Summer Low Flows Using Winter Recharge: A Preliminary Study on Drought Forecasting

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  1. DEQ Maximum Likelihood Flow Probability Using Winter Recharge to Predict Summer Low Flow Preliminary Draft

  2. Objectives of Current Study • Can we provide information about the likelihood of summertime drought flows 30, 60, 90 or more days ahead of time? • Provide us with the ability to mobilize drought response long before the drought hits Preliminary Draft

  3. Concept: Effective Recharge Window Rainfall during the N-D-J-F “recharge months” (before “leaf-out”), is linked to summer stream flow. Recharge during this critical time may drive water availability during summer low-flow months. Preliminary Draft

  4. Background • Built on historical data & institutional knowledge: • Long-Term Collaboration USGS & VA-DEQ • Low-Flow Characterization Study (2009-2011) • “Chloride”/Tracer Studies (2010) • Groundwater Well Network Observations (2002-current) • Provides Warning of Summer Low Flows Up to 4-8 Months in Advance Preliminary Draft

  5. Definitions R25: Probability that a daily stream flow during a particular month will be less than the 25th percentile for that month (equivalent to Drought Watch Condition) R10: Probability that a daily stream flow during a particular month will be less than the 10thpercentile for that month (equivalent to Drought Warning Condition) R5: Probability that a daily stream flow during a particular month will be less than the 5thpercentile for that month (equivalent to Drought Warning Condition) Preliminary Draft

  6. Maximum Likelihood Logistic Regression (MLLR) to Predict Summer Low-Flow Probabilities(Preliminary Draft Results for July, 2013) Preliminary Draft

  7. Maximum Likelihood Logistic Regression (MLLR) to Predict Summer Low-Flow Probabilities(Preliminary Draft Results for August, 2013) Preliminary Draft

  8. Maximum Likelihood Logistic Regression (MLLR) to Predict Summer Low-Flow Probabilities(Preliminary Draft Results for September 2013) Preliminary Draft

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