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Socio Economic Research on Fusion (SERF) under EFDA - Overview and Perspectives

Socio Economic Research on Fusion (SERF) under EFDA - Overview and Perspectives. C. Eherer, christian.eherer@efda.org SERF Workshop IST CFN 21 July 2007, Lisbon, Portugal. Overview. Rationale of SERF SERF Timeline SERF Phases Overview Selected results Current activities

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Socio Economic Research on Fusion (SERF) under EFDA - Overview and Perspectives

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  1. Socio Economic Research on Fusion (SERF) under EFDA - Overview and Perspectives C. Eherer, christian.eherer@efda.org SERF Workshop IST CFN 21 July 2007, Lisbon, Portugal

  2. Overview • Rationale of SERF • SERF Timeline • SERF Phases Overview • Selected results • Current activities • Future perspectives SERF Workshop, IST CFN Portugal, July 2007

  3. Rationale of SERF • Recommendation of the Fusion Programme Evaluation Board (FPEB) 1996 • Fusion as an economically and socially acceptable energy source • Societal implications of fusion power • Complement existing knowledge bases with an additional track in multi-disciplinary approach • Suggested research areas: • Economics: direct and external costs of fusion • Fusion in the energy system, energy scenarios • Fusion as a large technical and complex system (including governance) • Public acceptance and public opinion on fusion SERF Workshop, IST CFN Portugal, July 2007

  4. SERF Timeline • SERF 1 (1997-1998), Coordinated by European Commission • SERF 2 (1999-2000) • SERF 3 (2001-2002), EFDA Technology WP 2001 (TW1) • SERF 2002 (TW2) • SERF 2003 (TW3) • SERF 2004 (TW4) • SERF 2005 (TW5) • SERF 2006 (TW6) SERF Workshop, IST CFN Portugal, July 2007

  5. SERF 1 Overview • Research on 5 macro-tasks as suggested by FPEB • SE0: Long-term scenarios and the role of fusion power • European MARKAL model until 2100 including fusion • E1: Production costs of fusion power • Direct costs of fusion via power plant system code (4 plant designs; later on PPCS), comparison with other technologies • E2: External costs of fusion • ExternE methodology • S1: Fusion as a large technical system • Complexity, governance, megascience, research system • S2: Fusion and the public opinion • Structured interviews, focus groups, social impact of large fusion facilities (Porto Torres fusion experiment siting study) SERF Workshop, IST CFN Portugal, July 2007

  6. SERF 2 Overview • Improvement of work on external costs of fusion started in SERF 1 • Additional investigations on local public perception of fusion (Porto Torres) • Trust and licensing aspects • Politics and megascience SERF Workshop, IST CFN Portugal, July 2007

  7. SERF 3 Overview • Direct fusion cost assessment • Load following • International benchmarking studies (ARIES) • Interaction of physics and technology developments • External fusion cost assessment • Additional fusion plant concepts • Comparison with advanced versions of competitors • Fusion as an energy system option • Fusion in regional models (e.g. India) • Net present value analysis of the fusion option • Future electricity networks (impacts of intermittent sources, requirements) • Fusion and public opinion • Focus groups around Cadarache (ITER site) SERF Workshop, IST CFN Portugal, July 2007

  8. SERF 2002-2003 • Efforts in energy modelling + model building • PLANELEC model: simulation of electricity supply scenarios (Western Europe) • Single region global energy model (MARKAL/TIMES) TUG-IPP model  different fusion penetration scenarios • Impact of technological learning on fusion power • Future electricity grids • Start of development of EFDA-TIMES by an external consortium of companies and experts (global multi-region energy model) • Public opinion • Awareness of fusion in schools across Europe • Fusion and public risk perception in German speaking countries SERF Workshop, IST CFN Portugal, July 2007

  9. SERF 2004-2005 • Fusion in the energy system • Development of EFDA-TIMES • Various tasks on data collection, first analyses, economic scenarios, debugging, first peer reviews with subcontracted external partners (AEAT, ECN), international networking and expertise, etc. • Fusion scenarios and impacts of technological learning, global TUG-IPP energy model • PLANELEC Pro model: Global long-term electricity supply scenarios • Fusion in the electricity grid • Social and economic sciences • Risk communication guidelines for fusion • Focus groups on long term energy scenarios • Communication of energy scenario results • Spill-over effects and social rate of return on investments in Fusion research, development, demonstration and deployment SERF Workshop, IST CFN Portugal, July 2007

  10. SERF 2004-2005 (cont.) • Social and economic science • International press analysis on the decision to host ITER in Europe • Review of Impact of Communication EU ITER Site Decision in Terms of Public Opinion (focus groups around Cadarache and French media analysis) • Systematic review of social science research concerning large R&D programmes; Identification of key research questions & design of an empirical programme to address the nature of social perception of large R&D programmes SERF Workshop, IST CFN Portugal, July 2007

  11. Selected Results (1) • Energy scenarios • ECN, Western Europe MARKAL model (1998) • Fusion power gets window of opportunity in case of CO2 emission mitigation policies • TUG-IPP global TIMES model (end 2006 version) • CO2 emissions constraints, corresponding to a stabilisation level of 650 ppm  fusion gains a market share SERF Workshop, IST CFN Portugal, July 2007

  12. Energy scenarios – MARKAL ECN Illustrating the effect of constraining CO2 emissions on the 2100 electricity supply in Western Europe in the SERF 1 (1998) ECN studies. As the constraint tightens, the use of coal diminishes and the contribution from other sources, including fusion, increases. Nuclear fission was not allowed to increase in this case. SERF Workshop, IST CFN Portugal, July 2007

  13. Energy scenarios – TUG-IPP TIMES Key assumptions: 650 ppm CO2 constraints; conservative annual fusion capacity growth rates; optimistic non-renewable resources potential; availability of fast breeder reactors; availability of CO2 sequestration SERF Workshop, IST CFN Portugal, July 2007

  14. Selected results (2) • Conclusions of recent media analysis and focus group survey on ITER site decision around Cadarache • Overall, (local) newspapers mainly treat ITER or fusion power in general in a 'neutral' to 'positive' way. • Fusion power is predominantly presented as a 'new' energy option in media communication (especially w.r.t. fission). On a cognitive level, this message is more or less internalised by focus group participants. • Risks associated with operation of ITER or fusion power in general do not get much media attention. • Opportunities for local/regional development tend to be described in a positive way in the newspapers, while the focus group results reveal a more ambiguous picture. SERF Workshop, IST CFN Portugal, July 2007

  15. Selected results (3) • Conclusions of recent media analysis and focus group survey on ITER site decision around Cadarache (cont.) • Focus groups results however indicate a certain lack of trust in government and nuclear agencies when it comes to nuclear energy. In addition, the public debate organised in France was observed critically by the people, as the major decision to host ITER was already taken at international and national level. • The focus groups revealed a largely uninformed public. Consequently, most focus group participants clearly expressed a need for a more elaborate communication effort, which should be transparent, interactive (i.e. dealing with the questions defined by the local populations), as complete as possible, balanced, and most of all, continuous (i.e. running in parallel to ITER's 'life cycle'). • Recommendation to set up an a targeted research programme with the aim of developing a shared perspective on continuous communication and public engagement in the further development of the ITER project. SERF Workshop, IST CFN Portugal, July 2007

  16. Current activities • EFDA-TIMES development: Review and integration • Initial studies of hydrogen production from fusion power plants (will be fed into the EFDA-TIMES hydrogen module) • Lessons learned from public interaction, participative processes and information/communication strategies in the context of big nuclear projects • Investigating lay understanding and reasoning about fusion technology by means of a group-based methodology suitable to take lay participants through a learning process about fusion • Communication quality and lay understanding of fusion technology in Poland: a quasi experimental study of message formulation effects on attitude change SERF Workshop, IST CFN Portugal, July 2007

  17. Future perspectives (1) • EFDA Steering Group appointed AdHoc Group to assess the achievements of SERF against its original objectives and give recommendations • General guidelines for SERF in FP7: • An increased level of coherence (cf. the EFDA-TIMES Steering Group recently set-up) • Clear objectives • Multi-year goals • More collaborative actions among Associations • Increased links to universities and other laboratories • Integration of the new EU member countries SERF Workshop, IST CFN Portugal, July 2007

  18. Future perspectives (2) • Economic studies (WP 2008 working paper) • Development, exploitation and maintenance (including know-how) of the EFDA-TIMES global multi-region energy model in a project oriented manner • Continuing the investigation of economic benefits of spin-offs and spillover effects of fusion R&D, building on the findings of the work done so far and using appropriate economic methodologies • Continuing the investigation of the economics of non-electric applications of fusion power, starting from the latest achievements of the DEMO studies SERF Workshop, IST CFN Portugal, July 2007

  19. Future perspectives (3) • To continue to have a look on public and decision makers’ perception and opinions on fusion in order to derive recommendations for different areas of fusion activities, e.g. • Public Information and communication strategies • Education strategies • Technological aspects and risks (e.g. energy supply, hydrogen vs. electricity, safety & environment aspects) • To follow the discourse on other technologies under debate, emerging and existing ones, and derive lessons learnt for fusion. • To develop with field experts from different Associations a common approach or methodology to investigate lay understanding and reasoning about fusion technology in ways applicable in different European countries. • Targeted research programme with the aim of developing a shared perspective on continuous communication and public engagement in the further development of the ITER project (tbd) SERF Workshop, IST CFN Portugal, July 2007

  20. Thank you! SERF Workshop, IST CFN Portugal, July 2007

  21. SERF Workshop, IST CFN Portugal, July 2007

  22. Motivation of EFDA-TIMES • Fusion power practically not considered in existing long-term energy scenarios (e.g. IIASA-WEC, IPCC SRES) • Earlier energy scenario studies within EFDA: • Only considered Western Europe (ECN) • Basic single-region global model (TUG-IPP) • Thus, need for a tool within EFDA and the Associations to develop long-term multi-regional energy scenarios with fusion power • State-of-the-art and internationally accepted methodology • Enabling to contribute to the energy debate with such scenarios •  Start of the EFDA-TIMES project in 2004 • First version of the EFDA-TIMES Modelling Framework was developed for EFDA by an external consortium of experts and delivered in autumn 2004 SERF Workshop, IST CFN Portugal, July 2007

  23. EFDA-TIMES Intro (1) • TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System) • State-of-the-art model generator developed by the Energy Technology System Analysis Programme (ETSAP) of the IEA • Successor of MARKAL • Partial equilibrium energy model • Computes a supply-demand equilibrium of energy sector of the economy the that maximizes net social surplus • Bottom-up, energy/technology model based on technology explicit representation • Long-term and multi-period (until 2100) • 15 world regions including different trade mechanisms • Covers all sectors of the energy system SERF Workshop, IST CFN Portugal, July 2007

  24. EFDA-TIMES Intro (2) SERF Workshop, IST CFN Portugal, July 2007

  25. EFDA-TIMES Intro (3) • TIMES is a model for the prospective analysis of possible futures by scenarios (not a forecasting model) • A Scenario consists of: • Demand Curves: reference energy service demand projections + demand elasticities to own prices (GEM-E3  macroeconomic drivers; + driver elasticities  demand projections) • Supply Curves: primary reserves, annual potentials, expressed as stepped supply curves • Technology data-base (with optional penetration bounds) • Policy scenario: technology or fuel policies (taxes, subsidies, portfolio standards), emission policies (caps, taxes), general policies (fuel taxes, etc.) SERF Workshop, IST CFN Portugal, July 2007

  26. EFDA-TIMES Intro (4) • Typical application of TIMES models • Technological assessment • Analysis of competitiveness • Life-cycle analysis in a dynamic setting (cradle-to-grave) • Assesses bundles of competing and/or of complementary technologies, rather than stand-alone evaluations • Impact of Technological Progress • Energy Policy evaluation • energy taxes/subsidies, fiscal measures on investments, etc. • micro-measures: building code, building retrofit programs, energy efficiency programs, etc. • Emission policy assessment • Emission taxes • Emission Cap-and-trade systems: global or partial coverage • Emission intensity standards (for industry) • Energy security evaluation • E.g. Measured by oil/ gas/ nuclear fuel imports SERF Workshop, IST CFN Portugal, July 2007

  27. Components of EFDA-TIMES • The data base(s) / files where the model is specified (the EFDA data base = the EFDA model) • The code that processes the data, generates the economic equilibrium problem (the TIMES model generator) • The language in which TIMES is written (called GAMS) • The solver of the mathematical programming problem generated (we use CPLEX) • The user interfaces, that makes it feasible to work with such large and data intensive models: • input processing, data management, scenario management (VEDA Front End) and • output preparation, result analysis (VEDA Back End) SERF Workshop, IST CFN Portugal, July 2007

  28. Distribution and use of EFDA-TIMES • EFDA model database (distributed by EFDA only) • Now: only to EU Fusion Associations which request it • May be used by EU Fusion Associations also for domestic analyses by inserting their country as a 16th region (tbd) • EFDA-TIMES cannot be used for profit or commercial purposes • The TIMES model generator is available free of charge from ETSAP (www.etsap.org) • (+4.) GAMS and CPLEX are commercial software and have to be purchased • EFDA has a group license for the Associations for VEDA-FE/BE for use with the EFDA database; VEDA has to be purchased by external groups SERF Workshop, IST CFN Portugal, July 2007

  29. Involved research groups • CIEMAT, Spain • ENEA, Italy • iSpace, Austrian Research Studios, Austria • Max Planck Institute for Plasma Physics (IPP), Germany • Politecnico di Torino (POLITO), Italy • Risoe National Laboratory, Denmark • UKAEA Culham, UK • ECN, AEAT as subcontractors • University of Technology Graz (TUG), Austria • VTT-TEKES, Finland SERF Workshop, IST CFN Portugal, July 2007

  30. Achievements 2005/2006 • First review of EFDA-TIMES and extensive list of suggestions for improvement by VTT-TEKES and AEAT • Alternative economic growth assumptions and revised driver elasticities for EFDA-TIMES (ENEA) • Data collection and improvements • Electricity sector (CIEMAT) • Non-GHG pollutants (CIEMAT) • External costs (CIEMAT) • Methodology for assessing external versus mitigation costs of fusion in long-term energy scenarios (CIEMAT) • Implementation of a basic nuclear fuel cycle for Uranium (fission) and Lithium (fusion) (UKAEA) • Review and suggestions for improvements of the residential sector (IPP) • Impacts of Endogenous Technological Learning (ETL) and development of other learning approaches, e.g. ATL, Knowledge-Based-Learning (TUG) SERF Workshop, IST CFN Portugal, July 2007

  31. Roadmap and perspectives • To speed up the development process of EFDA-TIMES a two stage roadmap has been adopted: • Stage I: Do what is needed to produce publishable results. Publish the key assumptions and defensible preliminary results in a definitive paper. • Stage II: Further studies using the model, by fusion associations. Do what is needed to release a version to non-fusion users, which is attractive enough for them to want to use it. • Stage I focuses on the following activities: • Consolidation of the model • Review of the technology database and model structure • Review of major assumptions and their impact and get them “right” • Stay close to well known IPCC scenarios (as far as possible) • Implementation of quality guidelines • Centralised management and documentation of the master version of the model • Validation/benchmarking exercise SERF Workshop, IST CFN Portugal, July 2007

  32. Roadmap and perspectives (2) EFDA-TIMES Steering Group - EFDA RO, representatives of involved groups - Quality guidelines- Propose consistent work programme- Advise and review publication- Organise benchmarking exercises and external peer reviews Centralised Management of the Master Version - To avoid diverging model version - Ensure proper inclusion of changes- Checking of changes by the groups - Ensuring proper motivation and documentation of changes - Collect elements for a model documentation- Release updated master versions to the groups Supporting tools:- Internet forum- Ftp-server- Document management system- EFDA-TV (remote desktop sharing)- Video/Phone Conferences Involved Groups SERF Workshop, IST CFN Portugal, July 2007

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