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MONTHLY CLIMATE REVIEW. MARCH 2014. 500-hPa. Cyclone Hellen (Mozambique Channel). CONTENTS. * Tropics - ENSO [Neutral] - MJO * Extra-tropics (& Sea Ice) *Verification of JFM & March 2014 Outlooks * Drought * Selected Weather Events * Outlooks (April & AMJ 2014 & MDO). I. The Tropics.

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Presentation Transcript
slide1

MONTHLY CLIMATE REVIEW

MARCH 2014

500-hPa

Cyclone Hellen (Mozambique Channel)

slide2

CONTENTS

*Tropics

-ENSO [Neutral]

-MJO

*Extra-tropics (& Sea Ice)

*Verification of JFM & March 2014 Outlooks

*Drought

*Selected Weather Events

*Outlooks (April & AMJ 2014 & MDO)

slide7

850-hPa Wind

Recent

Westerlies, esp. mid-month

slide9

SST & Anomalies

Subsurface

slide10

SSTA Predictions for Nino 3.4 Region

CFSv2

NMME & inputs

(6th)

CPC/IRI

CPC Consolidation

slide12

MJO (March 17, 31 Overviews)

  • MJO remains active with E.P.* entering Indian Ocean; though indicators are

increasingly incoherent due to destructive interference with slowly evolving

atmospheric and oceanic conditions in western Pacific.

  • Dynamical model MJO index forecasts diverge considerably for next 2 weeks.

Some models weaken MJO as it interacts with the low frequency base state, while

others indicate a more robust Indian Ocean MJO event.

  • Statistical models generally favor continued MJO activity.
  • MJO favors enhanced (suppressed) convection over western & central Indian Ocean

(Maritime Continent and western Pacific) during period; also tending to oppose ongoing

convection across the west-central Pacific associated with increasing ocean temperatures.

*E.P. = Enhanced Phase

slide13

200-hPa Velocity Potential

Anomalies (5°S-5°N)

Positive anomalies (brown shading) indicate unfavorable conditions for precipitation

Negative anomalies (green shading) indicate favorable conditions for precipitation

MJO

strengthens

Faster

propagation

speeds – atmo

Kelvin waves?

Indo-Pacific

warm

pool region

Slower

propagation

speeds

Little

propagation?

Longitude

slide14

Ensemble GFS (GEFS) MJO Forecast

Yellow Lines – 20 Individual Members Green Line – Ensemble Mean

RMM1 and RMM2 values for the most recent 40 days and forecasts from the ensemble Global Forecast System (GEFS) for the next 15 days

light gray shading: 90% of forecasts dark gray shading: 50% of forecasts

The ensemble GFS forecast indicates no additional eastward propagation of the MJO signal.

slide18

Global Temperatures

King Salmon (52F)

March 1

(record high)*

*Weekly Weather & Crop Bulletin (April 8)

slide19

Global Precipitation

Seattle record:

9.44” (254%);

previous: 8.40” (1950)*

E.P. = Enhanced

Phase

ITCZ

S.P.

MJO

E.P.

MJO

S.P. = Suppressed

Phase

*Weekly Weather & Crop Bulletin (April 8)

slide20

Departures clearly related

to orography (much more

so than PNP)

Precipitation

Featureless

slide21

Hawaiian Rainfall (March 2014)

Dry start followed by trade wind strengthening

Total

PNP (% of normal)

+

54

1.9”

3.4”

M

4.0”

92

3.8”

160

18.7”

~135

+: 6.46” (March 8-9)

Oahu Forest Nat’l Wildlife Refuge

Weekly Weather & Crop Bulletin (April 8)

slide22

Sea Ice

Arctic

Antarctic

*Annual maximum extent on March 21

2014 Arctic max is 5th lowest in record (1978-2014)

*Annual minimum extent on February 23

2014 Antarctic min is 4th highest in record (1978-2014)

L

-2

-1

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

slide23

Significant increase in

coverage of multi-year ice

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

http://projects.kmi.open.ac.uk/role/moodle/pluginfile.php/712/mod_page/content/1/u116_2_f004i.jpg

slide30

DROUGHT MONITOR

March 4

April 1*

* Okay, so data cutoff extends 8 hours into April (12z April 1st) !

slide31

http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/support/water/westwide/snowpack/wy2014/snow1404.gifhttp://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/support/water/westwide/snowpack/wy2014/snow1404.gif

slide34

Track of Cyclone Gillian

Borneo

Sumatra

PNG

E. Timor

March 6-26, 2014

10-min winds: 125 mph

1-min winds: 160 mph

Highest Gusts: 180 mph

Minimum SLP: 937 hPa

Java

Bali

X

Christmas

Island

Gillian also affected search

for missing

Malaysian Airlines Flight 370

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/74/Gillian_2014_track.png

slide35

Gillian

“X”

Java

Approximate location

of Christmas Island

(10.5S, 105.6E)

X

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/00/Gillian_Mar_23_2014_0645Z.jpg/459px-Gillian_Mar_23_2014_0645Z.jpg

slide36

Track of Cyclone Hellen

March 27-April 1, 2014

10-min winds: 145 mph

1-min winds: 155 mph

Minimum SLP: 925-hPa

Tanzania

Mozambique

Madagascar

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Hellen_2014_track.png

slide37

Explosive Deepening of Cyclone Hellen over

the Mozambique Channel

Symmetrical &

Intense CDO

(150 miles)

Eye: 12 mi

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/1e/Hellen_Mar_30_2014_0720Z.jpg/515px-Hellen_Mar_30_2014_0720Z.jpg

slide38

Hazel Landslide/Oso Mudslide in Washington state

March 22, 2014

ACIS

{1500 feet long, 4400 feet wide and 30-40 feet deep}

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Oso_landslide_%28WSP%29.png

Washington State Patrol

slide40

APRIL TEMP

APRIL PRCP

AMJ TEMP

AMJ PRCP

slide42

THE END

??!

http://roflmouse.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/funny-animal-pictures-cute-duckling-scam.jpg