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Population Growth

Population Growth

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Population Growth

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Presentation Transcript

  1. Population Growth

  2. Which Countries Have The Fastest Growing Populations?, 3:50 • Which Countries Have Shrinking Populations?, 4:19 Which places are growing or shrinking?

  3. Why Populations Grow Too Fast • Slightly better healthcare, better hygiene = more children are surviving to adulthood AND adults are living longer • Lack of access to birth control • Low education level of women • Religious beliefs (that large families are better, that birth control is a sin, the preference for boy babies) • Immigration(if the country is a hotspot for refugees, for example)

  4. Effects of Rapidly Growing Population • Depletion of natural resources • Degradation of environment • More conflicts and wars • Rise of unemployment • High cost of living

  5. Why Populations Shrink • Low birth rates (below replacement level) • Little immigration • Lots of emigration • Disease outbreak • High mortality rate • War

  6. Effects of Shrinking Population • Labour shortage • Economic stagnation • Brain drain • Schools and other public services close down • Fewer young people to care for all the older people (and to pay taxes to support them too) Cities with the largest population decline 2005-2015

  7. Demographic Trap: the combination of high fertility and declining mortality in developing countries, resulting in a period of high population growth rate

  8. How Governments Control Population Growth

  9. If you were Prime Minister of a country with a very low birth rate, what could you do about it?

  10. 1:59 • In 2015 Denmark had a series of commercials with the goal of encouraging couples to have more babies • This actually lead to a small increase in births the following year Denmark Wants More Babies

  11. While Denmark wants an increase in the birth rate, however, they are also warning incoming refugees to stay away. • They just passed a law which lets Danish authorities to seize any assets exceeding $1,450 from asylum-seekers • They cut social benefits to refugees and immigrants by 45% and plan to demolish the “ghettoes” most new immigrants live in But only if they’re Danish babies…

  12. The German birth rate is one of the lowest in the world – the population could shrink by 16% by 2060 • Unlike Denmark, Germany is offering asylum to more refugees than any other European nation   • Germany can’t afford to discourage the immigration that could stave off crisis • Germany’s solution has downsides: the dramatic change in population dynamics has led to xenophobic violence and some civil unrest.  • Also unlike Denmark, Germany has not experienced a dramatic rise in support for anti-immigration parties How Germany Deals With Low Birth Rate

  13. Hungary • Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban does not want more immigrants • He said in a speech: “we do not want our own colour…mixed with those of others.” • Their birth rate is very low so he encourages women to have more babies. • The goal is reach replacement level by 2030 • Birth rate has already gone from 1.3 in 2011 to 1.5 now • His government is offering an impressive package of incentives: • up to 5 free IVF cycles for couples having trouble conceiving • 3 years parental leave • Housing subsidies per child running up to tens of thousands of euros • Subsidized childcare

  14. Singapore • • In 2012, Singapore authorities partnered with Mentos to put together “National Night,” a campaign meant to encourage Singaporean couples to let their “patriotism explode” and help the nation increase its 0.78 children per woman rate

  15. Polish government encourages people to “breed like bunnies” Poland

  16. Romania • In 1966, communist dictator Nicolae Ceausescu took some drastic measures to increase the birth rate • He wanted to increase the population by 7 million • Childless men and women over the age of 25 were subject to a new tax that could be as much as 20% of their income. • Divorce was made incredibly difficult • The legal importation of birth control was halted • Police were installed in hospitals to make sure that no illegal abortions were performed • This resulted in the deaths of around 10,000 women in illegal abortions • In the 1980s they again faced a declining birth rate and tried new things: • Women were subjected to monthly gynecological exams to detect pregnancies in their earliest stage and to ensure that the pregnancies came to term.

  17. In 2007, the government declared a National Day of Conception, in the hopes that giving couples the day off from work to do their civic duty would result in a baby spike 9 months later • Women who gave birth that day could win refrigerators, money, and even cars. • It seems to have worked—by 2013, Russia’s birth rate had surpassed America’s. Russia

  18. South Korea • One of the biggest concerns that South Korean parents have is being able to pay for their children’s care and education • So the government is: • Building more cheap governmental childcare facilities • Actively trying to weaken the perception that a college degree is necessary for success • The government doles out 500,000-won bonuses (about $500) to expectant couples to help cover prenatal expenses • For the first year after the child is born, parents get monthly cash allowances of up to 200,000 won—an amount that increases with each subsequent child • Free childcare • Subsidized fertility treatments • Housing assistance • Free parking for families

  19. In 2010, the South Korean government decided to turn off the lights in its offices at 7:30 p.m. on the third Wednesday of every month—which the government dubbed “Family Day” • People were encouraged to go spend time with their families (or to go spend some time with their partner and making some new babies)

  20. Japan’s Population Decline • Japan is projected to lose about 15% of its population by 2050 • Women are having fewer babies later in life = very low birth rate • People are getting married later or not at all • The # of kids is shrinking so much that Japan loses about 400 schools a year • Japan is one of the planet’s oldest societies, with a median age of 46.5 years • There is a growing shortage of labour. This will hurt the world’s third-largest economy • They get very few immigrants to fill the gap

  21. Why is this happening in Japan?

  22. Japan – so many old people • Today, over 25% of Japan's 127 million people are over 65. • By 2055, it's estimated to be 40%. • This will create a ton of healthcare costs.

  23. Extreme Work Culture • Japan's extreme work culture, where employees are expected to work into the night, go out drinking with their colleagues, and potentially move across Japan or abroad to advance their careers • The lifestyle of the “salaryman” • No time or energy left to date

  24. Working Women • 70% of Japanese women give up work as soon as they have their first child • Japanese men don’t help with the children as much • Not enough daycares • Moms that do go back to work are often vilified and looked down on • Married working women are sometimes demonized as oniyome, or "devil wives” • Married women are often passed over for promotions since it is assumed they will get pregnant and leave

  25. Young People Not Dating • 61% of unmarried men and 49% of women aged 18-34 were not in any kind of romantic relationship, a rise of almost 10% from five years earlier. • 45% of women aged 16-24 "were not interested in or despised sexual contact". More than a quarter of men felt the same way • Some resort to virtual reality girlfriends

  26. Pensions • Now older people can get pensions when they retire, so they don’t have to rely on children to care for them when they are elderly

  27. A Train Stop For A Single Person • A train in Hokkaido, Japan stops twice a day for a single passenger – a high school student on her way to school • The station was slated to close in 2012 due to its remote location • The train schedule is based on the girl’s timetable, and so passes by the station on her holidays • That’s how much the population has shrunk in some areas

  28. 3:46 Japan's Population Decline: Incredible Facts About Japan's Aging Population • 2:25 How Japan’s Economy is Ruining Its Youth • 16:40 Japan's Baby Drain (just the first 3.5 minutes or so)

  29. China’s 1 Child Policy • Introduced in 1979 (after a decade-long two-child policy), modified in the mid-80s to let rural parents a second child if the first was a daughter, and then lasted until eliminated at the end of 2015. • Now they have a 2-Child Policy • 1:32 • According to the Chinese government, 400 million births were prevented, though many scholars dispute this claim • Places with similar socioeconomic development like Thailand and Iran, along with the Indian states of Kerala and Tamil Nadu, achieved similar declines of fertility without a one-child policy

  30. China’s Gender Imbalance • 117 baby boys were being born to every 100 girls in the 2000s • There will be 30 million more men than women in 2020, potentially leading to social instability, and courtship-motivated emigration • Tens of millions of young men, especially poor, rural men cannot find or afford wives • Where are the missing girls? • Adopted out • Sex selective abortions • Unregistered births • Being excluded from the family register means they do not possess a Hukou (an identifying document, similar to a social security card.) They do not legally exist and cannot access most public services, such as education and health care, and do not receive protection under the law • Female infanticide

  31. India’s Forced Sterilization • In India, "the Emergency" refers to a 21-month period from 1975-1977 when Prime Minister Indira Gandhi had a state of emergency declared across the country • For much of the Emergency, most of Gandhi's political opponents were imprisoned and the press was censored. • Several other human rights violations were reported from the time, including a forced mass-sterilization campaign • The campaign primarily involved getting males to undergo vasectomy. • Quotas were set up that enthusiastic supporters and government officials worked hard to achieve. • There were allegations of coercion of unwilling candidates • In 1976–1977, the programme led to 8.3 million sterilisations, most of them forced, up from 2.7 million the previous year.

  32. Should the citizens of the fast growing countries have, as a basic human right, the opportunity to migrate to less densely settled countries? • Are the governments of ‘overpopulated’ countries justified in legally requiring small families? In requiring involuntary sterilization? Reflection on Demographics