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Population Growth. AAEC 3204. George Norton Agricultural and Applied Economics Virginia Tech. Objectives. Discuss nature of population growth in the world Consider determinants and consequences of rapid population growth and urbanization. Population issues to be discussed.

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population growth
Population Growth

AAEC 3204

George Norton Agricultural and Applied Economics

Virginia Tech

objectives
Objectives
  • Discuss nature of population growth in the world
  • Consider determinants and consequences of rapid population growth and urbanization
population issues to be discussed
Population issues to be discussed
  • Basic facts about population growth
  • Consequences of population growth
  • Causes of population growth
  • Policies to influence population growth and rural to urban migration
world population1
World Population
  • What is the present world population?
  • What is the current growth rate and is the growth rate currently at its historical peak?
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Past and projected

World population

1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150

when would world population double at the current growth rate
When would world population double at the current growth rate?

Is the growth rate likely to remain at 1.2 percent? Why or why not?

70/1.2 = 58 years

slide10
Why has population increased faster in developing countries today that it did in early stages of U.S. development?
are population growth rates more likely to increase rather than decrease over the next 10 years
Are population growth rates more likely to increase rather than decrease over the next 10 years?

Decrease

when will the world population stop growing and at what population
When will the world population stop growing and at what population?

Maybe in 2150 at 10.5-11.5 billion;

By 2050, expect about 9 billion

why does population grow when growth rates are declining
Why does population grow when growth rates are declining?

Recent rapid growth

means young population

with many in child

bearing years

let s examine
Let’s examine:
  • Determinants of birth rates
  • Economic factors important in affecting birth rates

3) Consequences of rapid population growth

determinants of birth rates
Determinants of birth rates
  • Income (economic factors)
  • Culture and social factors
  • Birth control
  • Education
  • Religion
  • Wars
why are economic factors important in affecting birth rates
Why are economic factors important in affecting birth rates?
  • Children provide labor in agriculture
  • Children provide social security
  • Children are a consumption good
  • Income implies value of time so number of children
  • Quantity / quality tradeoff
missing institutions and markets
Missing Institutions and markets
  • Insurance
    • Medical
    • Life insurance
    • Disability
    • Natural disaster
    • Theft
  • Social security
    • Government
    • Employer
gender bias
Gender bias
  • Culture and inheritance laws
  • Low female wages reduces opportunity cost of children
  • Education of females
externalities
Externalities
  • What externalities might be involved with fertility choices and why?
    • Costs of certain public goods such as schools and infrastructure might exceed private costs
    • Environmental effects
    • Family structure
what are the consequences of rapid population growth
Negative

Food

Difficult to educate

Environment

Age dependency

Jobs

Capital shallowing

Investment diversion

Positive

Labor

Economies of scale

Market

Intellectual base for ideas and innovations

Effect on demand for technologies

What are the consequences of rapid population growth?
what are some policies that influence population growth
What are some policies that influence population growth?
  • Policies for social and economic improvement
  • Social security system
  • Family planning
  • Female education
urbanization also increasing with rural to urban migration
Urbanization also increasing with rural to urban migration
  • Nature of migration
  • Why migration occurs
  • Consequences
  • Policy implications
rural to urban migration
Rural to urban migration

1980’s and 90’s– population growth in LDC’s averaged 2.1%

But, urban population growth averaged 3.5% (in many countries, 6 to 8%)

why is rural to urban migration good and why is it bad
Why is rural to urban migration good and why is it bad?
  • Good
    • Labor for industry (efficient use of resources)
    • Education: costs and benefits
    • Larger markets
  • Bad
    • Unemployment
    • Housing & Public services
    • Environment
why do people migrate from rural to urban areas
Why do people migrate from rural to urban areas?
  • Economic factors
    • Benefits of move
    • Costs of move
    • Planning horizon
  • Social & cultural factors
who tends to migrate
Who tends to migrate?

Age of migrants?

  • Young

Education of migrants?

  • Better educated

Marital status of migrants?

  • Single
harris todaro model of migration
Harris-Todaro Model of Migration
  • Potential migrants evaluate the “potential” or expected gains from migration versus the costs
  • Expected gains: real income differential times the probability of receiving a job offer
  • Probability is inversely related to the rate of unemployment
  • Migration rates in excess of urban job growth rates are expected in this model
what is the urban informal sector
What is the urban informal sector?

Why is the informal sector both good and bad for developing countries?

what policies can affect rural to urban migration
What policies can affect rural to urban migration?
  • Improve services in rural areas (education, health, etc.)
  • Remove bias in economic policies
  • Jobs in rural areas
conclusions
Conclusions
  • Population growth and R-U migration have been rapid in developing countries in recent years
  • Many causes but several are economic and institutional
  • Effects are positive and negative
  • Public policies can influence pop growth and R-U migration rates