1 / 58

Regional Growth Patterns and Scenario Planning – Futures 2040

Regional Growth Patterns and Scenario Planning – Futures 2040. New Mexico Housing Summit August 20, 2014. Who we are. Mid-Region Metropolitan Planning Organization, or MRMPO MPOs are responsible for transportation planning activities for each metropolitan area of more than 50,000 people

kim-sparks
Download Presentation

Regional Growth Patterns and Scenario Planning – Futures 2040

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript


  1. Regional Growth Patterns and Scenario Planning – Futures 2040 New Mexico Housing Summit August 20, 2014

  2. Who we are • Mid-Region Metropolitan Planning Organization, or MRMPO • MPOs are responsible for transportation planning activities for each metropolitan area of more than 50,000 people • MRMPO is part of the umbrella organization, the Mid-Region Council of Governments (MRCOG)

  3. Who you are • Public housing agency, or other public sector? • Developer, realtor, or other private sector? • Involved in transportation planning, MRCOG or other? • None of the above? Mid-Region Council of Governments of New Mexico

  4. Albuquerque Metropolitan Planning Area: • Three counties • Bernalillo County • Valencia County • Sandoval County (part) • Two urbanized areas: • Albuquerque • Los Lunas

  5. Role of MRCOG in Prioritizing Infrastructure Projects • Not an implementation agency • Identify high priority projects • Distribute federal funds • Ensure that projects are consistent with the region’s long-range transportation plan

  6. Metropolitan Transportation Plan • Long-range (20+ years) multi-modal transportation plan for the Albuquerque metro area • Updated every 4 years (current update  April 2015) • Projections of growth/development • List of all anticipated transportation projects in the region

  7. MTP Questions • Can our transportation infrastructure handle the projected growth? • What roles should different modes play? • What type of strategies and investments should we pursue?

  8. 2035 MTP: Roadway Enhancements • $3 billion in increased capacity • 600 new lane miles • North-south capacity • New network • 9 new/reconstructed interchanges

  9. 2035 No-Build First step: Consider impacts of growth on existing infrastructure See what happens if we don’t build anything! Second step: Consider impacts of growth AND infrastructure investments See what happens after $3 billion in roadway investments

  10. 2035 No-Build 2035 Build

  11. Summary Statistics • Miles traveled by car: 16 million to 24 million (+ 50%) • Hours traveled by car: 400,000 to 740,000 (+ 80%) • Average speeds: 40 mph to 33 mph (- 17%) • Trips across the river: 492,000 to 960,000 (+94%)

  12. Key Findings from 2035 MTP • River crossing congestion is a critical issue. • No new bridges have been proposed. • Building our way out of congestion is not realistic. • There is no silver bullet. A variety of strategies will be necessary to tackle congestion.

  13. Scenario Planning Mid-Region Council of Governments of New Mexico

  14. Scenario Planning How have you used scenario planning? Mid-Region Council of Governments of New Mexico

  15. Scenario Planning • Scenario Planning vs. • Contingency Planning Mid-Region Council of Governments of New Mexico

  16. Scenario Planning • How we grow is not a forgone conclusion • Allows us to ask: what if? • For example: What if future development takes place differently than it has in the past?

  17. Scenario Planning • Approach that uses growth scenarios to understand costs and benefits of development patterns • Land consumption • Transportation conditions • Environmental impacts • Economic competiveness • Integrate land use and transportation planning to ensure effective long-term policy decisions Example from Nashville MPO

  18. 2040 MTP: Scenario Planning June 2013 Fall 2014 Summer 2014 Spring 2014 LUTI Meetings / Workshops / Focus Groups Spring 2015 Futures 2040 Recommendations

  19. Growth Projections Mid-Region Council of Governments of New Mexico

  20. Population Projection Mid-Region Council of Governments of New Mexico

  21. Growing Metropolitan Areas Mid-Region Council of Governments of New Mexico

  22. 30-Year Growth by County Absolute Growth Percentage Growth

  23. Employment Projection 582,300 396,900 Mid-Region Council of Governments of New Mexico

  24. Key Employment Sectors Mid-Region Council of Governments of New Mexico

  25. Age Distribution 2040 2012 Mid-Region Council of Governments of New Mexico

  26. Shifting Age Distribution

  27. An Aging Population Mid-Region Council of Governments of New Mexico

  28. Generation Y / Millennials • Born early 1980s to early 2000s • 3x more likely to use transit (18% compared with 6%) • 63% expected to move within the next 5 years • Preference for smaller homes closer to work Mid-Region Council of Governments of New Mexico

  29. Multi-Family Construction Mid-Region Council of Governments of New Mexico

  30. Regional Challenges Mid-Region Council of Governments of New Mexico

  31. Regional Challenges What are the biggest challenges & opportunities for our region as we grow? Mid-Region Council of Governments of New Mexico

  32. Regional Challenges • Challenges Scenarios • Workshops • Agency staff • Public health advocates • Valencia County

  33. Prioritizing Challenges for Future Growth Water Resources Economic Development Diverse Housing and Transportation Options (Modes/Types) Target Growth in Activity Centers Collaborative and Equitable Process Historic and Rural Preservation Composite Score

  34. Summary of Regional Challenges / Needs • Water Sustainability / • Environment • Look at ways to improve water conservation through reuse, delivery and development patterns. • Better understand the current water resources and future availabilityand how transportation decisions affect our environment. • Economic • Development • Identify the best ways to achieve economic vitality that take health and quality of life into consideration. • Develop a sustainable, diversified, attractive, and resilient local economy. • Work to retain families and the younger generation. • Diverse Housing / • Transportation Options • Improve roadway and trail connectivity and design. • Create a transportation network that allows safe and convenient options to walk, bicycle, take transit and drive. • Support a variety of housing options for people of all ages and incomes. • Balance of Jobs • and Housing • Effectively use compact development and infill to balance housing and jobs and decrease travel distancesto services and transit stations. • Reduce pressure on the transportation system by limiting sprawl development. • Target Growth in Activity Centers • Support public spaces that foster social life with a mix of housing, retail, and workspace. • Improve existing centers and strategically locate new activity centers. • Provide a unique variety of great places accessible by transit for entertainment and arts, to gather, or to run errands. • Historic and • Rural Preservation • Preserve cultural heritage, balance rural character with urban growth, and respect and acknowledge the difference between our local neighborhood and regional identities. • Ensure historic preservation in main streets and original town sites. • Preserve agricultural land. • Climate Change / Resiliency • Pursue development patterns that make us more resilient to climate impacts . • Consider impacts of changing temperature and precipitation on energy demands, transportation infrastructure, and flood risk. • Reduce GHG emissions. • Reduce how much water we consume.

  35. Growth Scenarios Mid-Region Council of Governments of New Mexico

  36. 1. What are the scenarios? • Allowable Uses • Emerging Lifestyles • Balancing Jobs and Housing Mid-Region Council of Governments of New Mexico

  37. Zoning:AllowableUses Mid-Region Council of Governments of New Mexico

  38. Zoning:EmergingLifestyles Mid-Region Council of Governments of New Mexico

  39. Zoning:Balancing Housing &Jobs Mid-Region Council of Governments of New Mexico

  40. 2. How were the Scenarios Created? • UrbanSim • Predictive model for Socioeconomic Forecasting • Based on Local Data • Simulates Market Behavior • Compatible with our Travel Demand Model Mid-Region Council of Governments of New Mexico

  41. 3. What do the scenarios have in common? • Local data (except zoning!!) • Model structure & equations • Roadway network • Regional population projection • Regional employment projection Mid-Region Council of Governments of New Mexico

  42. Housing by Scenario Balancing Housing & Jobs Emerging Lifestyles Allowable Uses Mid-Region Council of Governments of New Mexico

  43. Employment by Scenario Balancing Housing & Jobs Emerging Lifestyles Allowable Uses Mid-Region Council of Governments of New Mexico

  44. Jobs to Housing Balance

  45. Population Share by County 2012 AU JH EL Mid-Region Council of Governments of New Mexico

  46. Employment Share by County 2012 AU JH EL Mid-Region Council of Governments of New Mexico

  47. Roadway Performance Mid-Region Council of Governments of New Mexico

  48. Commuting Measures Mid-Region Council of Governments of New Mexico

  49. Sustainability Measures Mid-Region Council of Governments of New Mexico

  50. Putting it All Together • All scenarios show deteriorating travel conditions. • Zoning does have an impact on roadway performance; can test other strategies. • You can have fewer acres consumed by development and less congestion at the same time. • An increase in jobs west of the river appears to help alleviate the river crossing issue, but not commuting time. • Development patterns carry different benefits and costs to the region. Mid-Region Council of Governments of New Mexico

More Related