1 / 110

SCENARIO PLANNING

SCENARIO PLANNING. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO. UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING PRODUCE A SCENARIO ON A PARTICULAR ISSUE OF COMMON INTEREST IN A DEFINED TIME FRAME. IN ORDER TO GUARANTEE COMPETITIVENESS. ENTERPRISES MUST IDENTIFY SUCCESS POTENTIALS VERY EARLY.

vernon
Download Presentation

SCENARIO PLANNING

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. SCENARIO PLANNING

  2. THE PURPOSE OF THIS WORKSHOP IS TO • UNDERSTAND THE BASIC CONCEPTS BEHIND SCENARIO PLANNING • PRODUCE A SCENARIO ON A PARTICULAR ISSUE OF COMMON INTEREST • IN A DEFINED TIME FRAME

  3. IN ORDER TO GUARANTEE COMPETITIVENESS ENTERPRISES MUST IDENTIFY SUCCESS POTENTIALS VERY EARLY

  4. THIS HAS BEEN CALLED COMPETITION FOR INDUSTRY FORESIGHT

  5. ENTERPRISES SHOULD NOT LOOK FOR ONE VISIONARY VIEW

  6. AS IT WILL CORRESPOND TO THE GENERALLY EXPECTED VIEW

  7. INSTEAD THEY SHOULD TRY TO ACQUIRE VARIOUS VIEWS WHICH DESCRIBE THE WHOLE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITIES

  8. THE FUTURE IS NOT A SINGLE UNIFORM STATE

  9. BUT AN ONGOING PROCESS THAT REFLECTS THE PLENITUDE OF HUMAN LIFE

  10. THE FUTURE INCLUDES • ALL THE THINGS WE LEARN ABOUT OURSELVES AND THE WORLD • ALL THE INCREMENTAL IMPROVEMENTS WE DISCOVER • ALL NEW IDEAS • ALL TE NEW WAYS WE EXPRESS THEM AND RECOMBINE THEM

  11. THE FUTURE IS A SYSTEM • NATURAL • OUT OF ANYONE’S CONTROL • DRIVEN BY TECHNOLOGY AND TRENDS • AND INDIVIDUAL ATTEMPTS TO CONTROL IT

  12. SCCENARIOS ARE ALTERNATIVE VIEWS OF THE FUTURE

  13. SCENARIO PLANNING ORIGINATES FROM HERMAN KAHN and ANTHONY WIENER

  14. THE SCHEMES OF OUR MENTAL MAPS LEAD US TO IMAGINE FUTURES THAT ARE SPECIFIC TO EACH ONE OF US

  15. AND THAT DEPEND ON OUR PERCEPTIONS OF THE PAST

  16. BASED ON WHICH WE MAKE ASSUMPTIONS

  17. THE FUTURE TELLS US WHO WE ARE • AS INDIVIDUALS • AS A CIVILIZATION

  18. DEPENDING ON PERSONAL INCLINATIONS THE FUTURE WILL BE EXTREMELY ROSY OR EXTREMELY GRIM

  19. WE CAN SEE IT AS • STATIC • REGULATED • ENGINEERED

  20. OR WE CAN SEE IT AS • DYNAMIC • IN CONSTANT CREATION • TO BE DISCOVERED AS A PLACE OF LEARNING • A PLACE OF INTENSE COMPETITION

  21. TECHNOLOGY CAN BE SEEN AS • AN EXPRESSION OF HUMAN CREATIVITY • LEADING TO AN INVITING FUTURE

  22. OR AS A SCARY KILLING THING

  23. A TRAP WE MUST AVOID

  24. IS FALLING INTO SCIENCE FICTION

  25. IF ONE DROPS FUNDAMENTAL SCIENTIFIC CONSTRAINTS ANYTHING BECOMES POSSIBLE

  26. THE FUTURE IS NOT PREDICTABLE

  27. SCENARIO PLANNING GIVES US DIFFERENT SIGHTS OF THE FUTURE

  28. SCENARIO PLANNING IS MORE A THINKING INTO THE FUTURE THAN A PREDICTION

  29. SCENARIOS CAN BE CLASSIFIED INTO THREE MAJOR CATEGORIES • INTUITIVE LOGIC BASED ON ORGANIZED COHERENT AND PLAUSIBLE THEMES • TREND-IMPACT ANALYSIS BASED ON ALTERNATIVE PROJECTIONS OF DIFFERENT KEY FACTORS • CROSS-IMPACT ANALYSIS BASED ON ALTERNATIVE PROJECTIONS COMBINING DIFFERENT KEY FACTORS IN NEW WAYS

  30. INTUITIVE LOGIC AND TREND IMPACT SCENARIOS ARE STRATEGIC THINKING TOOLS

  31. CROSS-IMPACT ANALYSIS SCENARIOS FOCUS ON QUANTITATIVE PROJECTIONS

  32. THE FUTURE MAY BE CONSIDERED AS EMERGING FROM THE INTERACTIION OF • EVENTS • TRENDS • IMAGES • ACTIONS

  33. EVENTS ARE THOSE THINGS WHICH MAKE MANY PEOPLE DOUBT THE EFFICACY OF THINKING ABOUT THE FUTURE AT ALL

  34. THINGS JUST SEEM TO HAPPEN

  35. WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN NEXT SEEMS UTTERLY UNKNOWABLE

  36. SEPTEMBER 11, 2002 IS AN EXAMPLE OF AN EVENT

  37. THE 1929 STOCK MARKET CRASH IS ANOTHER EXAMPLE

  38. SOMETIMES THE SIGNIFCANCE OF AN EVENT IS NOT IMMEDIATE

  39. AN EXAMPLE WOULD BE THE DISCOVERY OF FIRE

  40. OR THE INVENTION OF THE COMPUTER

  41. THERE ARE THREE TYPES OF TRENDS • A CONTINUATION OF THE PRESENT AND OF THE PAST • CYCLICAL TRENDS • EMERGING ISSUES OR DISCONTINUITIES

  42. TRENDS CONTINUING THE PRESENT AND THE PAST CAN BE IDENTIFIED THROUGH • CONTEMPLATING OUR OWN LIFE EXPERIENCES • SOCIOLOGICAL ANALYSIS • HISTORICAL ANALYSIS

  43. AN EXAMPLE IS THE CONTINUED PRIVATIZATION OF SOCIETY

  44. STARTED IN ENGLAND IN THE SIXTEENTH CENTURY

  45. WITH THE LAW ON ENCLOSURES

  46. THESE LAWS PRIVATIZED THE COMMON FEUDAL LANDS

  47. AND ALLOWED THE PURCHASING AND SELLING OF THESE LANDS

  48. THIS RESULTED IN A DRAMATIC CHANGE IN THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN MEN AND LAND

  49. MEN NO LONGER BELONGED TO THE LAND

  50. THEY OWNED IT

More Related