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ASCE 7-10 Wind Speed Map

ASCE 7-10 Wind Speed Map. Peter J. Vickery Applied Research Associates, Inc. 8537 Six Forks Road, Suite 600 Raleigh, NC, 27615. Summary. New Hurricane Simulation Model Windfield Filling (weakening after landfall) Holland B (pressure-wind Relationship)

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ASCE 7-10 Wind Speed Map

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  1. ASCE 7-10 Wind Speed Map Peter J. Vickery Applied Research Associates, Inc. 8537 Six Forks Road, Suite 600 Raleigh, NC, 27615

  2. Summary • New Hurricane Simulation Model • Windfield • Filling (weakening after landfall) • Holland B (pressure-wind Relationship) • Tracks and pressures (Landfall location and intensity) • Results in Lower Design Wind Speeds • Moving to strength wind speed map (wind load factor = 1 for strength design, 0.63 for ASD) • Strength map corresponds to 700 year RP • ASCE 7-05 Equivalent Map = V700/√1.6 • Cat III and IV structures use 1700 year RP winds • Cat I structures use 300 year RP winds

  3. V700/√1.6

  4. V700/√1.6 • ASCE 7-05 • ASCE 7-10 Equivalent

  5. 700 Year Return Period Winds

  6. 700 Year Return Period Winds

  7. 1700 Year Return Period Winds

  8. Simulation Methodology

  9. Additional Data in New Model

  10. Landfall Pressures

  11. Landfall Pressures

  12. Coastal Segments

  13. Landfall Pressures

  14. Landfall Pressures

  15. Landfall Pressure

  16. 2008 Model vs. 2000 Model

  17. Simulated vs. Historical Maximum Wind Speeds

  18. Simulated vs. Historical Maximum Wind Speeds

  19. Simulated vs. Historical Maximum Wind Speeds

  20. Simulated vs. Historical Maximum Wind Speeds

  21. Landfall Pressures vs. RP

  22. Landfall Intensity (by Pressure)

  23. QUESTION:If the new model produces more intense hurricanes (defined by pressure) than the old model, why have the design wind speeds gone down?

  24. ANSWER:Because of the New Model for the Holland B Parameter

  25. What is B?

  26. What is B?

  27. What is B?

  28. Statistical Model for Holland B Parameter

  29. Holland B Pressure Fits

  30. B Parameter

  31. Statistical Model for B

  32. Holland B from Wind Field Analyses

  33. Mean B at Land Fall (old vs. new models

  34. Effect of B on Predicted Wind Speeds

  35. Effect of B on Predicted Wind Speeds

  36. Summary • New model produces more landfall intense hurricanes by pressure than the model used to develop ASCE 7, yet results in lower wind speeds. • Additional flight level data and improved statistical model for B resulted in lower ~10% estimates of the Holland B parameter. • In some areas (e.g. Florida Panhandle) the new model produces fewer land falling strong hurricanes, and hence wind speeds are lower than associated with the reduction of B alone.

  37. Windborne Debris Region • Current Standard • V > 120 or 110 within one mile of coast • Exact Mapping (new 700 year map) • 120√1.6=152~150 • 110 √1.6=139~140 • New WBDR is intended to mimic current standard, pending new research • V > 140 or 130 within one mile of coast • Results in less area within WBD Region that the existing standard

  38. Wind Borne Debris Region

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