Climate Change and AB 32: The California Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006

1. Society Of American Military Engineers Climate Change and AB 32: The California Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006 California Air Resources Board Richard Varenchik April 23, 2007

2. Global Temperatures Since 1850 Hansen et al., “Earth’s energy imbalance”, Science (2005) and “Global temperature change”, PNAS (2006)

3. 12 Hottest Years on RecordOccurred in Past 16 Years 1998 2002 2003 2004 2001 1997 1995 1990 1991 1999 2005 2006 First Six Months of 2006 Warmest on Record No U.S. State was Cooler Than Average Five States Had Record Heat: Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska and Missouri Oceans Warming Too—Absorbing Heat From Earth’s Surface 900 Climate Journal Articles Agree: Human GHGs ImpactClimate

4. Industrial Era Has Changed The Atmosphere • Carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and other pollutants cause global warming • IPCC concludes increase in these gases is a result of human activities Source:IPCC Report: Summary for Policy Makers, Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis

5. California Climate Change: Projections For Next 100 Years With aggressive control policies: • – Average temperature increase 4 to 6 F • – Sea level rise 8 to 11 inches • – Sierra snowpack decreased 29 to 72 percent With business as usual: • – Average temperature increase 7 to 10 F • – Sea level rise 11 to 16 inches • – Sierra snowpack reduced 73 to 89 percent

6. California’s Man-Made GHG Emissions 2002 (CO2-equivalent) Others 8.4% Transportation Electric Power 41.2% 19.6% Total statewide inventory ~ 500 MMTCO2E Industrial 22.8% Agriculture & Forestry 8.0% Source: March 2006 CAT Report, adapted from CEC, 2005

7. Control Implementation Timeline(Through Scoping Plan Approval)

8. Emission Reduction Measures • Direct reduction measures • Market-based measures • Incentives to reduce emissions • Voluntary programs

9. Criteria for Rulemaking Design regulations to be equitable, minimize cost, encourage early action No disproportionate impact on low-income communities Credit for early voluntary reductions Complement criteria pollutant strategies Open process – public involvement through workshops, working groups, public meeting.

10. Potential ARB Early Actions • Early reductions prior to Scoping Plan • Publish list by June 30, 2007 • Regulations enforceable January 1, 2010 • Low Carbon Fuels • Auto Refrigerants (DIY cans) • Landfill Methane gas control • More from ARB & other agencies • Web Page: http://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/030507symp/030507agenda.htm

11. Statewide GHG Limit—AB 32 Statutory Directives • Determine 1990 GHG emissions level and approve an equivalent limit for 2020 • Evaluate best scientific, technological and economic information • Adopt Limit by Dec. 31, 2007 • Limit remains in effect unless amended or repealed

12. REPORTING • Working on Reporting Regulation • Public Workshops in 2007 • Need Input From All Interested Groups • Bring to Board by December 2007 • Effective in 2008; First Reporting 2009 • Use CA Climate Action Registry Tools • Visit the New Web Page • http://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/ccei/ccei.htm

13. Mandatory Reporting—Milestones • Early 2007 • Identify significant sources, who will be required to report and when • Review existing protocols • Workshops and workgroups to develop regulation and supporting tools • Spring/summer 2007 • Review and prepare protocols • Ongoing workgroups, workshops

14. Mandatory Reporting—Milestones • October 22, 2007 • Release staff report • December 6, 2007 • Board hearing • Reporting begins • TBD

15. SOURCES THAT MAY BE INCLUDED FOR MANDATORY REPORTING • Oil and gas production/distribution • Oil refineries • Cement manufacturers • Industrial/commercial combustion • Landfills • Electric power generators/utilities • Other sources may be considered • Looking at CEQA impacts

16. Supreme Court’s April 2 DecisionIn Massachusetts V. EPA • Ruled EPA can regulate greenhouse gases • Ruling does not force EPA to regulate • However, any refusal should be based on science & “reasoned justification” • CA asks Fresno court to set conference for moving ahead with AB 1493 • Still awaiting EPA waiver on AB 1493 • Federal government can still do national GHG rules

17. AB 1493 – Passenger Car Regulations AB 1493 Adopted by Ca. Legislature in 2002 Directs ARB to Pass Automobile GHG Reduction Rule Rule Passed By ARB in September 2004 Provides largest GHG reduction of any measure • Cut auto GHGs 30% by 2016 model year • Adopted or considered by 11 states • Currently under court challenge • Have Just Asked Judge to set Conference for Moving Ahead If overturned, ARB to achieve equivalent or greater reductions through other mobile source regulations 17

18. VERMONT AUTO CASE(Son of AB 1493) • At Least 11 states have Adopted or are Considering ARB’s 1493 Regulation • Automakers Sued in Ca., Rhode Island and Vermont to block the Regulation • Vermont Case Currently in Trial • Vermont Outcome Applies Only to Vermont • California Case may go to Trial this Summer • Ca. Case Impacts all other states

19. Local Government Activities • Local governments showing climate leadership • ARB liaison James Goldstene working to build relationships • Climate Action Team subgroup established to better define state/local interaction • Support for local activities • Guidance on possible reduction strategies • Quantification/accounting of reductions

20. Contacts and More Information • ARB Climate Change Web Site • http://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/cc.htm • Stay informed - sign up for the list serve • California Climate Change Portal • http://climatechange.ca.gov/ • Chuck Shulock (916) 322-6964 cshulock@arb.ca.gov • Richard Varenchik (626) 575-6730 rvarench@arb.ca.gov • James Goldstene (916) 445-8449 jgoldste@arb.ca.gov (Business & local govt Issues) • ARB’s Help Line: 800 242-4450