Navigating the Future: Being and Becoming a Futurist

1. Navigating the Future:Being and Becoming a Futurist Daniel J. Pesut PhD APRN BC FAAN Professor and Associate Dean for Graduate Programs Indiana University School of Nursing dpesut@iupui.edu

2. Future Pacing • What concepts, tools, techniques are most useful? • How can information be used? • Why is information important? • Why care about the information?

3. Foresight “Images of the future are the blue prints that we use in constructing our lives” Cornish, E. (1977). The study of the future. Bethesda, MD: World Future Society.

4. Wonder If a time traveler from 50 years in the future could give you the answer to one question, what would it be?

5. Pride If you were looking back 10 years from now and telling the tale of the organization’s greatest success, what would the story be and why?

6. Shame If you were looking back 10 years from now and telling the tale of the organization’s greatest failure, what would the story be and why?

7. Memory What does the organization need to forget? What must it always remember?

8. Imperatives What are the most important strategic decisions we will have to make as an organization?

9. Obstacles and Dangers What will prevent us from succeeding? What are the greatest risks and dangers?

10. Priorities If you had the power to do one thing for the organization, what would it be, and why?

11. Objectives • Discuss eight strategies that help to navigate future trends and issues in health care. • Discuss futures thinking tools that help discern consequences of identified future health care trends.

12. Foresight ~ Future Blind Knowledge ~ Research Learning ~ Education Service ~ Practice Kelso, Scott & Engstrom, D. (2006) The complementary nature. Bradford Books, MIT Press, Boston, MA. http://www.thecomplementarynature.com/TCN_Glossary.php

13. Future Blind • Lost and trapped in yesterday’s decisions, choices and consequences –become risk aversive • Betrayed by expectations -must negotiate the expectations of youth with the experience of life Hudson, Frederic (1999). The Adult Years: Mastering the art of self-renewal. Jossey-Bass: San Francisco.

14. Future Blind • Social systems once protective are destabilizing • Overwhelmed with information and decisions • Bewildered by change, complexity and discontinuities • Develop discourse of regret versus hope Hudson, Frederic (1999). The Adult Years: Mastering the art of self-renewal. Jossey-Bass: San Francisco.

15. Crossing the Quality Chasm A New Health System for the 21st Century- The Century of Complexity http://newton.nap.edu/books/0309072808/html/

16. Health Care PerformanceCharacteristics • Safe • Effective • Patient- centered • Timely • Efficient • Equitable

17. A 21st Century Health Care System • Evidenced based, planned care • Reorganization of practices • Systematic attention to patient information needs and behavioral change • Ready access to clinical expertise • Supportive information systems Institute of Medicine (2001). Crossing the quality chasm: A new health system for the 21st century. Institute of Medicine, National Academy Press, Washington, D.C.

18. Redesign Challenges • Redesign care processes • Effective use of information technologies • Manage clinical knowledge and skills • Develop effective teams • Coordinate across conditions, services, settings, time • Use of outcome measures for improvement and accountability

19. USA AHA Workforce Keys • Foster meaningful work • Patients, staff needs, meaning • Improve workplace partnerships • Value, voice, rewards • Broaden base of health care workers • Attract and retain a diverse work force • Collaborate and build societal support • Institutional and public policy reform

20. Four Futures • Possible • Plausible • Probable • Preferred

21. “What the future holds for us depends on what we hold for the future.” Mikela and Philip Tarlow Navigating the Future

22. Sustainable Society Global Renaissance The New Economy Failures of Success Fortress World Collapse intoChaos Zone of High Aspiration Zone of Conventional Expectation Successes Alternative Futures Business-As-Usual Problems Zone of Growing Desperation

23. Future Studies The purpose of future studies is not to predict the future, but to envision desirable futures and avoid or prevent catastrophic ones.

24. Becoming A Futurist • Pay attention to time and time-spirits. • Learn about the future. • Understand people’s reactions to learning about the future. • Actively monitor industry trends and forecasts.

25. Becoming a Futurist • Discern logical consequences of trends using futures thinking tools and techniques. • Use emotional intelligence in change efforts. • Create vision-based scenarios. • Stimulate strategic conversations about espoused visions.

26. Time and Time Spirits

29. Learning About the Future

30. World Future Society http://www.wfs.org/ http://www.wfs.org/futuretimesmay07.htm

31. Reactions to Learning About the Future • Patterns of Mind • Patterns of Heart • Patterns of Soul

32. Actively Monitor Trends and Forecasts

33. Scanning Scanning involves searching information resources, consciously (active) or not (passive), for a particular kind (directed) of information which is then subjected to special attention.

34. Top Ten Forecasts http://www.wfs.org/forecasts.htm

35. Trends and Consequences • Personal • Professional • Organizational

36. Future Trends • On a sheet of paper write what you believe to be the top 7 trends • Share your trends with a colleague • Colleagues – must mark off the trend they believe least likely to happen • Share with one more colleague and they must mark off the trend they believe least likely to happen • One more time repeat the sharing and marking off • What trends are left?

37. Discern Consequences of Trends

38. Trend • What does this really mean? • What does this really mean? • What does this really mean? • What does this really mean? • What does this really mean?

39. Futures Wheel A futures research method that draws out the consequences and expands the impact of an identified trend or event.

40. Futures Wheel The search for consequences continues until three unanimously agreed-upon consequences have been developed.

41. Cross-Impact Analysis • A futures method technique used to make judgments about relationships among identified trend consequences. • A matrix is developed with the identified trends. • Judgments are made about the positive and negative impact of the trends in relation to one another.

42. Global Health EconomyMap of the Decade http://www.iftf.org/features/ghe_map.html

43. Future Health Scan • Globalization • Cost containment and outcomes • Advanced personalized therapies • Information infrastructure advances • Human genome project • Predict-and-manage paradigm

44. Salvage Diagnosis Life Threat Symptoms Emerge Intensity Treatment 0 Age Old ParadigmChronic Disease Management Source: Health Futures

45. Cardiac Surgery Dialysis Insulin dependence Life Threat Symptoms Emerge Acuity Amputation of limbs Cataract removal/ new lenses Diagnosis 0 Time Diabetes - The Harvest Scenario Source: Health Futures

46. Life Threat Symptoms Emerge Acuity Genetic screening Biosensors/regulation Artificial pancreas Islet cell transplantation Immunotherapy Serum marker testing 0 Time Diabetes - The Prediction & Management Scenario Source: Health Futures

47. The future happens at the intersection of knowledge and services……

48. Influence Change With Emotional Intelligence

49. Emotional Intelligence • “The ability to sense, understand and effectively apply the power and acumen of emotions as a source of human energy, information, connection and influence” Cooper, Robert & Sawaf, Ayman. (1997). Executive EQ: Emotional intelligence in leadership & organizations: Grosset/Putnam: New York.

50. Future Think : Integrated Levels • Environment • Behavior • Capabilities • Values and Beliefs • Identity • Mission • Vision • Spirit Dilts, Robert : http://nlpu.com/Coach2Awakener.htm