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Plug-In Hybrid-Electric Vehicles Current Status, Long-Term Prospects and Key Challenges

Plug-In Hybrid-Electric Vehicles Current Status, Long-Term Prospects and Key Challenges. University of Colorado Sustainable Energy Course Lecture by Tony Markel National Renewable Energy Laboratory Thursday November 16 th , 2006. Overview. Why plug-in?

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Plug-In Hybrid-Electric Vehicles Current Status, Long-Term Prospects and Key Challenges

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  1. Plug-In Hybrid-Electric VehiclesCurrent Status, Long-Term Prospects and Key Challenges University of Colorado Sustainable Energy Course Lecture by Tony Markel National Renewable Energy Laboratory Thursday November 16th, 2006

  2. Overview • Why plug-in? • What is a Plug-In Hybrid-Electric Vehicle (PHEV)? • State-of-the-art in PHEV technology and key players in the industry • Key challenges in bringing viable PHEVs to market • NREL’s contributions to PHEV research and development

  3. Why Plug-In Hybrids?

  4. Source: Hubbert Center Newsletter #99/1 R. Udall and S. Andrews The Perfect Storm • Petroleum consumption has steadily increased while domestic production has continued to decline • World oil production predicted to peak within the next 5-15 years • Recent increase in gasoline price is indicator of growing tension between supply and demand Gasoline price - 200% rise in 8 years! WHAT’S OUR PLAN?

  5. Transportation sector nearly 100% petroleum dependent Transportation accounts for two-thirds of total petroleum consumption 58% of petroleum is imported America’s Oil Addiction “America is addicted to oil…” The President’s Advanced Energy Initiative Goals: Fueling Our Vehicles • Develop advanced battery technologies that allow a plug-in hybrid-electric vehicle to have a 40-mile range operating solely on battery charge • Foster the breakthrough technologies needed to make cellulosic ethanol cost-competitive with corn-based ethanol by 2012. • Accelerate progress towards the President’s goal of enabling large numbers of Americans to choose hydrogen fuel cell vehicles by 2020. Source: www.whitehouse.gov

  6. 3 MBPD Oil Use Reduction with HEVs Oil use same as today! This highly aggressive scenario assumes 100% HEV sales from 2010 onwards… HEVs unable to reduce consumption below today’s consumption level • Produced using VISION model, MBPD = million barrels per day

  7. 4 MBPD Oil Use Reduction with PHEVs Oil use reduction! PHEVs on E85 ?? This highly aggressive scenario assumes 100% HEV sales from 2010 and 50% PHEV40 sales from 2020 onwards… PHEVs reduce oil consumption with a transition to electricity • Produced using VISION model, MBPD = million barrels per day

  8. What is a Plug-In Hybrid-Electric Vehicle (PHEV)?

  9. Contemporary Hybrids Toyota Camry Toyota Prius Toyota Highlander Honda Insight Lexus RX400h Lexus GS450h Honda Civic Honda Accord Chevy Silverado Ford Escape Saturn Vue

  10. ELECTRIC ACCESSORIES PETROLEUM ONLY REGENERATIVE BRAKING ENGINE DOWNSIZING ADVANCED ENGINE ENGINE IDLE-OFF A “Full” Hybrid 76hp gasoline engine, 67hp electric motor, 1.5kWh battery

  11. Fuel Flexibility ELECTRICITY PETROLEUM AND/OR REGENERATIVE BRAKING ENGINE DOWNSIZING ADVANCED ENGINE ELECTRIC ACCESSORIES ENGINE IDLE-OFF BATTERY RECHARGE A Plug-In Hybrid 76hp gasoline engine, 67hp electric motor, 9.0kWh battery (30mi)

  12. Lower “fuel” costs Home recharging convenience Fewer fill-ups Fuel flexibility Vehicle-to-grid (V2G) potential Better utilization of generation capacity Less CO2 emissions Less petroleum use Less air pollution Energy diversity Benefits of a Plug-In vs. Full Hybrid CONSUMER BENEFITS By plugging it in… NATIONAL BENEFITS

  13. HEV Conventional 103hp 47hp / 1.3kWh 164hp 3150 lbs 3070 lbs 3460 lbs 3240 lbs PHEV40 PHEV20 110hp 60hp / 16.1kWh 106hp 59hp / 7.7kWh Plug-In Hybrid Variants - Midsize Sedan Note: these are hypothetical vehicles with equivalent 0-60mph performance

  14. Plug-In Hybrid Fuel Economy Predicted fuel economy and operating costs for midsize sedan1 • Assumes 15,000 miles annually, gasoline price of $2.41 per gallon, electricity price of 9c/kWh • Note that average US household consumes 10,700 kWh of electricity each year • Using 110V, 20A household outlet

  15. Average Daily Costs Gas. Elec. ¢/mi CV $3.45 --- 9.1 HEV $2.48 --- 6.5 PHEV20 $1.58 $0.48 5.4 PHEV40 $1.21 $0.72 5.1 Assumes $2.41/gal and 9¢/kWh PHEVs: >40% reduction in operating costs >$500 annual savings PHEVs Reduce Fuel Consumption By >50% On Real- World Driving Cycles 227 vehicles from St. Louis each modeled as a conventional, hybrid and PHEV 26 mpg 37 mpg • 8647 total miles driven • 100% replacement of sample fleet 58 mpg & 140 Wh/mi 76 mpg & 211 Wh/mi

  16. HEVs and PHEVs Likely to Reduce Greenhouse Emissions Source: Hybrid Electric Vehicle Working Group, www.epri.com

  17. Electrified Miles May Lead to Cleaner Operation Source: Hybrid Electric Vehicle Working Group, www.epri.com

  18. PHEV Impact on Utilities Typical Hourly Electric Demand Patterns

  19. Utility Sized for Annual Peak Peak Shaving? Excess Capacity Night-time charging of PHEV’s PHEV Impact on Utilities Ratio of base to peak is measure of utility performance Hours at Load Annually Assumes utility controlled night-time charging for 50% of the vehicles in this utility district

  20. State-of-the-Art in PHEV Technology and Key Players in the Industry

  21. OEM Plug-In Hybrids • 2003 Renault Kangoo Elect’road • up to 50mi electric range • approximately 500 sold in Europe • DaimlerChrysler Sprinter PHEV • 15 prototypes being produced for testing in various locations in Europe and North America • up to 20mi electric range

  22. DaimlerChrysler Sprinter PHEV

  23. OEM Plug-In Hybrids “…Toyota executive Shinichi Abe has been quoted…that Toyota is working on plug-in hybrids…that the next-generation Prius will have an all-electric range of about nine miles…” Green Car Congress, 23 April 2006 “…we are looking at plug-in hybrids…we are very keenly looking at it, and working with that technology.” Bill Ford Jr, 11 May 2006

  24. Other PHEV Prototypes - Industry EnergyCS Plug-In Prius HyMotion Escape PHEV AFS Trinity Extreme Hybrid™ AC Propulsion Jetta PHEV Esoro AG H301

  25. Other PHEV Prototypes - Universities University of Queensland, Australia University of California, Davis San Diego State University

  26. PHEV Batteries Johnson Controls / SAFT Cobasys Valence Technologies Hymotion

  27. PHEV Supporters Founding Partners • Austin Energy • City of Austin, Texas • City of New York • Set America Free Coalition • Center for Energy and Climate Solutions • Center for National Security Policy • American Public Power Association • Plus several hundred other cities and counties, utilities, national security and environmental groups www.pluginpartners.org

  28. PHEV Supporters cont. Membership as of March 2006 • Pacific Gas & Electric (utility) • Southern California Edison (utility) • Raser Technologies (drives) • Maxwell Technologies (ultracaps) • Electrovaya (lithium batteries) • Enax (lithium batteries) • Daiken (lithium batteries) • International Battery (lithium batteries) • A123Systems (lithium batteries) • Delta-Q Technologies (power electronics) www.hybridconsortium.org

  29. PHEV Supporters cont. • Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) • California Cars Initiative • Plug-In America • Americans for Energy Independence • Senator Orrin Hatch (R), Utah • President George W. Bush

  30. Key challenges in bringingviable PHEVs to market

  31. 4000 Battery Life • PHEV battery likely to deep-cycle each day driven: 15 yrs equates to 4000-5000 deep cycles • Also need to consider combination of high and low frequency cycling 70% 50% Data presented by Christian Rosenkranz (Johnson Controls) at EVS 20

  32. Battery Packaging

  33. Vehicle Costs

  34. $2.41/gal. (2005 avg) $3.00/gal. (today) $4.00/gal. Vehicle Costs cont.

  35. Vehicle Costs cont. Why would PHEV buyers pay more? • Tax incentives • Reduced petroleum use, air pollution and CO2 • National energy security • Less maintenance • Reduced fill-ups • Convenience of home recharging (off-peak) • Improved acceleration (high torque of electric motors) • Green image, “feel-good factor”

  36. Summary • PHEVs are a key technology in the portfolio of options to reduce US oil use • They also provide significant other consumer and national benefits • Precommerical PHEV prototypes are on the road today • There has been a surge in community, industry and political support for PHEVs • The key remaining barriers to commercial PHEVs are battery life, packaging and cost

  37. Summary of NREL PHEV Activities • National benefits assessment – oil use and greenhouse emissions • Vehicle-Level • PHEV systems modeling and design tradeoffs analysis • Battery characterization testing and engineering • Developing procedures for PHEV testing and MPG reporting • Evaluating real-world use and performance of PHEVs • Utility Level • Assessment of PHEV impacts on utilities • Exploring synergies between PHEVs and renewables • V2G opportunities for PHEVs in regulation services • Advisors to DOE and automotive OEMs – working to identify and overcome barriers to PHEV adoption

  38. Vision for Transport in Sustainable Communities PHEVs with renewable electricity and biofuels/hydrogen

  39. Acknowledgements NREL Center for Transportation Technologies and Systems: • Terry Penney– Manager, FreedomCAR and Vehicle Technologies • Matthew Thornton, Tony Markel, Aaron Brooker, Jeff Gonder– Vehicle Systems Analysis Team • Michael O’Keefe – Advanced Power Electronics Team • Ahmad Pesaran– Energy Storage Team • Jennifer Elling, Theresa von Kuegelgen – Communications Team NREL Energy Analysis Office: • Walter Short, Paul Denholm, Peter Lilienthal

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