Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles APSenergy March 2nd, 2008 Dr. Mark Duvall Electric Power Research Institute
Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV)Combustion engine plus one or more electric motors. Uses only hydrocarbon fuel Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV)Use on on-board electricityRecharged from electrical grid No engine Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV)Combustion engine and stored electric energy both usedAdaptation of existing hybrids Range-Extended Electric Vehicle (REEV)Drive power is primarily electric Engine is used only when stored electrical energy is exhausted
A Few Thoughts on Current Status(2007 was a big year) • Most major OEMs have either announced PHEV activities or are already moving • Diversity of activities • Major presence at Detroit Auto Show • Recent DOE solicitation • Reunification of PHEV concept to include both EV-based and HEV-based concepts • Growing consensus around advanced battery manufacturing and cost as key issues • Renewed discussion on the future of U.S. battery manufacturing
Plug-In Hybrid – Many Different Designs Split Parallel Series
Vehicle Fuel Economy – Torque Control • Component efficiencies from modeling (FUDS) • Fuel inputs need Gasoline to Electricity Equivalence: • Fuel Costs ($/gal, $/kWh) • Well to Tank Efficiency • CO2 Emissions (g/kWh, g/gal) Battery Sustaining Battery Depleting
Vehicle Fuel Economy – Torque Control • Results of Optimization • T_engine = f(rpm, T_command) Battery Depleting – Fueling Cost Optimized Battery Sustaining
LiIon Testing at SCE (capacity) LiIon capacity is looking good. There is some degradation, but it is within bounds and linear.
LiIon Testing at SCE (power) LiIon power is also degrading, but within acceptable limits.
The Future of the Electric Sector Three Possible Scenarios Key Parameters Value of CO2 emissions allowances Plant capacity retirement and expansion Technology availability, cost and performance Electricity demand PHEV bounding scenarios of 20%, 62%, and 80% new vehicle market share by 2050 SCPC – Supercritical Pulverized Coal CCNG – Combined Cycle Natural Gas GT – Gas Turbine (natural gas) CCS – Carbon Capture and Storage
Power Plant-Specific PHEV Emissions in 2010PHEV 20 – 12,000 Annual Miles Coal Natural Gas Non-Emitting Generation
Greenhouse Gas Emissions Increase with Liquid Fossil-Fuel Alternatives to Oil Source: Farrell, A. E. and Brandt, Adam R. (2006). Risks of the oil transition. Environmental Research Letters, 2006.
Electric Sector Simulation Results (2050)PHEV 10, 20, & 40 – 12,000 Annual Miles
Greenhouse Gas Emissions Electricity grid evolves over time Nationwide fleet takes time to renew itself or “turn over” Impact would be low in early years, but could be very high in future A potential 400-500 million metric ton annual reduction in GHG emissions Annual Reduction in Greenhouse Gas EmissionsFrom PHEV Adoption
Overall CO2e Results All nine scenarios resulted in CO2e reductions from PHEV adoption Every region of the country will see reductions In the future, PHEVs charged from new coal (highest emitter)w/o CCS roughly equivalent to HEV, superior to CV There is unlikely to be a future electric scenario where PHEVsdo not return CO2e benefit
Impacts to EnergyElectricity and Petroleum Moderate electricitydemand growth Capacity expansion 19 to 72 GW by 2050 nationwide (1.2 – 4.6%) 3-4 million barrels per day inoil savings (Medium PHEV Case, 2050) Electricity Demand: Medium CO2 Case
U.S. Power Plant Emissions Trends Source: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency • Power plant emissions of SO2 and NOx will continue to decrease due to tighter federal regulatory limits (caps) on emissions • Other local and national regulations further constrain power plantemissions • Air quality is determined by emissions from all sources undergoing chemical reactions within the atmosphere
Net Changes in Criteria Emissions Due to PHEVs Power Plant Emissions Emissions capped under law (SO2, NOx, Hg) are essentially unchanged Primary PM emissions increase (defined by a performance standard) • Vehicle Emissions • NOx, VOC, SO2, PM all decrease • Significant NOx, VOC reductions at vehicle tailpipe • Reduction in refinery and related emissions
PHEVs Improve Overall Air QualityReduced Formation of Ozone Air quality model simulates atmospheric chemistry and transport Lower NOx and VOC emissions results in less ozone formation particularly in urban areas Change in 8-Hour Ozone Design Value (ppb)PHEV Case – Base Case
PHEVs Improve Overall Air Quality Reduced Formation of Secondary PM2.5 • PM2.5 includes both direct emissions and secondary PM formed in the atmosphere • PHEVs reduce motor vehicle emissions of VOC and NOx. • VOCs emissions from power plants are not significant • Total annual SO2 and NOx from power plants capped by federal law • The net result of PHEVs is a notable decrease in the formation of secondary PM2.5 Change in Daily PM2.5 Design Value (µg m-3)PHEV Case – Base Case
PHEVs Improve Overall Air Quality Reduced Deposition of Sulfates, Nitrates, Nitrogen, Mercury
The Future of the Electric Sector Three Possible Scenarios Key Parameters Value of CO2 emissions allowances Plant capacity retirement and expansion Technology availability, cost and performance Electricity demand SCPC – Supercritical Pulverized Coal CCNG – Combined Cycle Natural Gas GT – Gas Turbine (natural gas) CCS – Carbon Capture and Storage
Electricity as a Fuel(for Transportation) APSenergy March 2nd, 2008 Dr. Mark Duvall Electric Power Research Institute
Overview – Electric Utility Perspective • Long-held consensus view of the value of electrifying transportation • Financial • Environmental • Energy Security • Industry is incredibly diverse • Number of companies and organizations • Financial and operating models • External requirements • Electric sector undergoing fundamental change • Environmental and sustainability • New technology adoption
Electricity as a transportation fuel PHEVs as energy storage Demand response Energy efficiency Integration of renewables Load shaping Improved asset utilization Improved system efficiency Lower cost of stationary energy storage PHEVs synergistic with Smart Grid Emissions reductions CO2 reductions or credits Environmental Image Customer satisfaction Local economic development Improve reliability Improve customer rate structure Plug-In Hybrid Value Proposition for the Electric Utility Industry We need to understand the many components
What is the Smart Grid?Will PHEVs Participate in the Smart Grid • Smart Grid is the interaction of power systems and information technology • Enables greater information flow, superior management of system for reliability, stability, cost, etc. • Empowers ratepayers to manage energy and costs • Standardized communication between vehicles and the grid critical to enabling this link. ?
The Electric System of the Future Efficient Use of Energy • Provide information and tools to install infrastructure now • Develop designs and migration strategies for “ideal” future
Last 25% of capacity needed less than 10% of the time Electric Load Duration Curve Last 5% (2,500 MW) needed less than 50 hours per year Hours per Year Source: California Independent System Operator Corporation
Integrating Renewables • Source – Pacific Gas & Electric
Energy StorageTransportation – Electric Sector Synergies • Energy storage is a disruptive technology for the electric industry • Cost-effective energy storage would benefit all areas of the energy value chain: generation, transmission, distribution, and end-use • Key applications: firming large penetration of intermittent renewables, grid support, end-use load shifting, etc. • Current energy storage systems are only marginally cost competitive. Costs need to come down by factor of 2-5 times. • Need innovation and standardization as well as policy recognition.
PHEV Interface to Infrastructure • General consensus that first step is charging-only functionality • Intelligent charging is key to minimizing customer and utility costs, customer satisfaction • Cooperation on standards currently ongoing • Infrastructure Working Council • Utility participation in SAE committees • Understanding tradeoffs and capabilities between numerous communications options • V2G and V2H (home) are out there—not yet clear consensus on value and feasibility
Technologies for New Generation in 2010-2015 Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh 100 IGCC 90 Wind@29% CF 80 NGCC@$6 70 Biomass PC 60 50 Nuclear 40 30 0 10 20 30 40 50 Cost of CO2, $/metric ton
Technologies for New Generation in 2020-2025 Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh 100 90 Solar (CSP) 80 70 NGCC@$6 60 PC w/cap IGCC w/cap Wind@40%CF 50 Biomass 40 Nuclear 30 0 10 20 30 40 50 Cost of CO2, $/metric ton
Summary • Electricity is a clean, abundant, low-carbon, non-petroleum based transportation fuel • Infrastructure standards are a critical • Numerous elements to the value proposition that must be clearly understood • Information flow between vehicle and utiliity—on some level—is critical to maximizing value • Energy storage also a disruptive technology to electric sector • Lack of installed manufacturing • National demonstrations are important, as soon as feasible