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Back to the Future

Back to the Future. On Behalf of: ABC – Central Florida. Anirban Basu, Chief Economist, ABC January 2011. The Big Chill. Historic and Projected World Output Growth 2004 through 2011*. *2010-2011 data are projections. Source: International Monetary Fund.

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Back to the Future

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  1. Back to the Future On Behalf of: ABC – Central Florida AnirbanBasu, Chief Economist, ABC January 2011

  2. The Big Chill

  3. Historic and Projected World Output Growth 2004 through 2011* *2010-2011 data are projections Source: International Monetary Fund

  4. Estimated Growth in Output by Select Global Areas 2010 Projected Source: International Monetary Fund

  5. Estimated Growth in Output by Select Global Areas 2011 Projected Source: International Monetary Fund

  6. Top 12 Stock Exchanges 2008 Growth Source: Yahoo! Finance

  7. Top 12 Stock Exchanges 2009 Growth Source: Yahoo! Finance

  8. Top 12 Stock Exchanges 2010 Growth Source: Yahoo! Finance

  9. Ferris Bueller’s Day Off

  10. Recession Watchas of May 2009 Source: Moody’s Economy

  11. Industrial ProductionJanuary 2001 through December 2010 Source: Federal Reserve The industrial production index measures the real output of the manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities industries.

  12. Gross Domestic Product1990Q1 through 2010Q3 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

  13. Recession Watchas of April 2010 Source: Moody’s Economy

  14. Recession Watchas of November 2010 Source: Moody’s Economy

  15. Net Change in U.S. Jobs, BLSJanuary 2001 through December 2010 Between December 2009 and December 2010, the nation gained 1.1 million jobs. 12/10: +103k Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  16. National Initial Unemployment Claims, 4-week moving averageSeasonally adjustedJanuary 2001- December 2010 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  17. National Private Sector Job Openings, SAJanuary 2001 through November 2010 November 2010: 3,248 October 2010: 3,328 November 2009: 2,456 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  18. Unemployed Workers per Private Sector Job Opening, SAJanuary 2001 through November 2010 November 2010: 4.6 October 2010: 4.5 November 2009: 6.2 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  19. National Nonfarm Employmentby Industry Sector GroupsDecember 2007 v. December 2010 All told 7,239K Jobs Lost Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  20. National Nonfarm Employmentby Industry Sector GroupsDecember 2009 v. December 2010 All told 1,124K Jobs Gained Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  21. National Construction Employment Monthly Net ChangeFebruary 2000 – December 2010 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  22. Florida Nonfarm Employmentby Industry Sector Groups (SA)December 2009 v. December 2010Absolute Change FL Total: +43.5; +0.6% US Total: +1,124K; +0.9% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  23. Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL MSA Nonfarm Employmentby Industry Sector Groups (NSA)December 2009 v. December 2010Absolute Change Orlando Total: +10.8K; +1.1% FL Total: +43.5; +0.6% US Total: +1,124K; +0.9% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  24. Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL MSA Nonfarm Employmentby Industry Sector Groups (NSA)December 2009 v. December 2010Absolute Change Tampa Total: +1.7K; +0.2% FL Total: +43.5; +0.6% US Total: +1,124K; +0.9% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  25. Unemployment Rates, Largest 20 Metros(NSA)November 2010 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  26. Unemployment Rates, U.S. States (SA) December 2010 • U.S. Unemployment Rate: November 10’ =9.8% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  27. Florida MSA’s Unemployment RatesNovember 2010 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  28. Trading Places

  29. 15-Year & 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates January 1995 through December 2010 Source: Freddie Mac

  30. U.S. New Home SalesJanuary 1999 through November 2010 Source: Economy.com, Census Bureau

  31. U.S. Housing StartsJanuary 1999 through December 2010 Source: Economy.com

  32. Mortgage Banker’s Association Mortgage ApplicationsPurchase IndexJanuary 2006 through December 2010 Source: Economy.com

  33. Architecture Billings IndexDecember 2007 through December 2010 Source: The American Institute of Architects

  34. ABC’s National Backlog AverageNovember 2008 through September 2010 Sept. 09 – Sept. 10: +13.7% Source: ABC

  35. Nonresidential Construction Put-in-PlaceJune 2006 through November 2010 Oct. 08: $719.0 billion Nov. 10: $563.4 billion -21.6% Source: U.S. Census Bureau November 2010:

  36. National Nonresidential Construction Spending by SubsectorNovember 2010 v. November 2009 Source: U.S. Census Bureau

  37. Inputs to Construction PPIJanuary 2001- December 2010 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

  38. Key Commodity PricesJanuary 2001- December 2010 Source: BLS: EIA

  39. Die Hard

  40. U.S. Retail & Food Services SalesJanuary 2001 through December 2010 Source: Census

  41. U.S. Chain Store Sales Growth by Type of Store November 2009 v. November 2010 Source: Economy.com

  42. National Vehicle Sales January 2004 through December 2010 (SAAR) Source: Autodata Corp.

  43. U.S. Federal Budget Deficit1995-2012* *2010-2012 data are projections Source: Congressional Budget Office

  44. Projected State Budget Shortfalls for FY 2012As Percentage of FY 2011 Budget Combined gaps of $113 billion for 2012. Source: Center on Budget and Policy Priorities • Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Delaware, D.C, Indiana, New Hampshire, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming are not projected to have budget shortfalls in 2012. • Note: Kentucky and Virginia have two-year budgets. They closed their FY2012 shortfalls when they enacted their budgets for the FY2011-FY2012 biennium.

  45. Return to Oz • Stimulus, stimulus, stimulus; • We’ve seen the worst of it from a broader economic perspective; • Too soon to tell if broad inflation domestically or globally will be problematic; • Election results will be good for economy because gridlock is desirable, at least to a certain extent; • Global economy on the mend for now; • Commodity price surges remain a threat; • 2011: GDP 3.0%-3.5%; 1.6M jobs; US UE stays above 9%; • 2012????

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