Overview • Uncertainty? • Scientific consensus about trend, but uncertainty about speed and tempo • Type of security concerns? • Adaptation • Consequence management • Policy responses • Implications for energy security
Climate Change I • Little uncertainty over the direction of change • Statistical analysis of data on climate • Some uncertainty over speed of change • Wide variety of sources and models on data • Intended for scientific purposes, not for forecasting or to help politicians make decisions • Lots of uncertainty over when catastrophic events will occur
Climate Change II • Scientific consensus is that fossil fuel use, particularly coal and oil used in power and transportation is a major contributor to climate change • Major policy prescription is to reduce the impact: • Reduce use of fossil fuels • Increase efficiency of use of fossil fuels • Decrease the byproducts of fossil fuel use theorized to contribute to climate change • Implications for energy security are mixed.
Climate Change V Types of Climate Change Issues • Not just data in temperatures • Ocean chemistry and impact on bio systems • Decline in polar icecaps • Increase in number and duration of droughts • Increased frequency of extreme weather events • Concern over rate of change and potential for acceleration • Short-term challenges of responding to sudden changes • Long term challenges of adaptation
Climate Change VI Consequence management concerns • Extreme climate events shift roles for defense forces • Military support to civilian authorities role becomes more important? • Consequential for budgets, planning and programs? • Consequential for forces most exposed to consequences of climate change • International emergency response and relief roles become more prominent?
Climate Change VII • Adaptation Concerns • Population support • Food and water • Health • Energy • Human security • Migration • Armed conflict • Governance • State viability • Economic viability
Climate Change VIII • Five Climate Threats, Top 12 Most Vulnerable Countries
Climate Change IX • Projected Temperature Increase in Africa 2040, 2090
Climate Change X • Areas of Physical and Economic Water Scarcity
Climate Change XI • Dependence on Inflows/Water Transfers
Climate Change XIII Role of environmental policy • Case of both market failure and government failure • So what should government focus on? • Provide accurate information about national-level costs of climate change • Internalizing costs of climate change in economy so that producers and end users get prices right • Establish simple rules of the game • Getting risk allocation in rules of the game right
Climate Change XIV Policy Tools • Wait and see -- • Internalize climate change costs • Create markets • Regulate sources • Market facilitation (information) • Stimulate technological development • Ease economic adaptation • Pursue international coordinated response
Climate Change XV Defense Science Board 2011 Recommendations • White House Office of Science and Technology Policy • Identify gaps in climate data • Encourage efforts to relate scientific data on climate to societal impact outcomes • NOAA/NSA • Low cost/high reliability launch vehicles for civilian science/climate observations • DNI • Climate change>human security>national security? • Develop indicators
Climate Change XVI Defense Science Board 2011 Recommendations (contd.) • NSC • Coordinate whole of government approach • DoD • Continued focus on military support for civilian authorities (MSCA) and emergence response to catastrophic weather • Adapt security cooperation efforts to include climate issues, especially water • Enhance partner resilience • Conflict/avoidance/shaping efforts • Focus on Africa as region at high risk • Littoral risk assessment and adaptation
Climate Change XVII Implications for energy security • Core policy is to reduce use of fusil fuels and associated emissions • Benefits to energy security • Greater focus on efficiency • Switch to cleaner burning natural gas abundant in North America • More regionally focused economy (North America and Western Hemisphere) where security risks are lower • Cons for security in general
Climate Change XVIII Final Thoughts • Already successful states • Cost to address/mitigate climate change • Competition for capital with other states • Magnets for migration • Looked to for aid and disaster response • Less developed states • Varying impact of climate change • Poor governance increases risks • Lower ability to adapt especially in agricultural economies • Trans nationalization of conflicts over water, resources • Less able to manage uncertainty?