Using Semi-Automated Decision Algorithms in Military Operations

1. Using Semi-Automated Decision Algorithms in Military Operations By Dennis R. Ellis Dennis.Ellis@trw.com TRW Systems PHOENIX CHALLENGE 2002February 20-22, 2002New Mexico State University,Las Cruces, NM

2. General Purpose Decision Aids Overview • The goal is a set of configurable, flexible, semi-automated decision support tools. • Support for multi-echelon, joint services command simulation at the operational and strategic levels for the IO/IW, AOC, NMD, TMD, and Strategic Deterence missions. • Based on Joint Operations Planning and Execution System (JOPES) concepts. • Includes Data Mining, Dempster-Shafer Belief Network, Genetic, Optimal Policy, and Case Based Planning algorithms. • Supports parallelism, shared memory, and multiple processors. • Designed for maximum scalability and parallelism as a distributed system. Decision Makers DecisionAlgorithms Coordinated CONOPS OperationalDatabases Doctrine

3. Spectrum of Options for Approach Common Decisions Message passing Collaborative Agents Joint Exercises Operational Cells Degree of Integration Co-dependent Missions Operator Dialog Tight Loose System of Systems Passive Observance Non-Interacting Systems Single System Our focus has been in this area Basis for multi-mission synergy TADIL-Jis a start SmartCollaboration PracticalImplementation at AOCs NMD/TMD/AOC Wargames

4. JOPES-based Deliberative Processes Typical Mission Execute Order Execute Order Weather Update Terminate Order Operations Order DEFCON Change Readiness Reports Target Assessment Threat Assessment Fragmentary Order Engagement Schedule Commander’s Estimate OPSCAP/SYSCAP Reports OPSCAP/SYSCAP Reports Joint Operations Planning & Execution System Mission Execution Course of Action Selection Detailed Planning Situation Assessment Repeat if necessary - Manage Forces - Force Survivable - Weather - Target Viability - Threats - Identify Goals - Filter Preplans - Selects COAs - Defensive Strategies - Offensive Strategies - Integrate/Deconflict - Weapon Allocation - Asset Tasking - Joint Scheduling - Define C2 timeline - Satisfy Constraints - Optimize Plan - Adjust Status - Set Engagement - Assign Assets - Monitor Strikes - Enforce Timeline - Assess Mission - Plan Update - Redirect Forces - Reconstitute

5. Decision Centered Approach Legend: known unknown • Decision = State Transition • - Current State, Transition (Plan & Assess) , and Desired State may not be known • - This paradigm has been shown to neatly sort decisions, algorithms, and displays • Representation: Decision Categories: Military Equivalent: • Clarify Current State Situation Analysis • Clarify Desired State Determine Objective • Define Alternatives Develop COAs • Execute/Assess Plan Combat Assessment Desired State Current State Plan Assess NEW! Transition

6. Decision Tools • Our decision tools span the full spectrum of military decision making, including Effects Based Operations assessment feedback. • Background Tasks Decision Tools Controller MissionSimulator C&C Fog-of-War • Foreground Tasks - Decision Toolkit • Execution Monitoring • Timeline Enforcer • Rule-Based Execution • Effectiveness Metric • Plan Update Trigger • Mission Planning • Mission Previewer • Engagement Planner • Optimize Effectiveness • Schedule Repair • Deliberate Planning • Case-based Planner • Planning Horizon • Terrain Reasoning • Target Designation • Element Management • Force Management • Force Survival • Target Viability • Assessment • Dempster-Shafer Belief Network • Problem Recognition • Profile Generation • Clustering • Rule Induction

7. Interleaved Planning & Execution Function Technology Legend: Planning Thread: Preview Mission Map-Based Visualizer Optimize Plan Genetic Algorithm Assess Mission Readiness Data Mining Determine Course of Action Case-Based Reasoning Execution Thread: Update Plan Optimal Policy Monitor Timeline Timeline Visualizer Assess Mission Effectiveness Belief Network Perturb Environment Fog-of-War Module

8. Situation Diagnosis • Dempster-Shafer Networks • Information Operations • Anti-Terrorism Operations • Combat Assessment • Weather Forecast • Space & Terrestrial Weather • Time Critical Target Assessment • Foreign Launch Assessment It is crucial that situations are properly diagnosed because military decisions that adversely affect lives, property, and the environment are based on the assessment of the situation, making the decision inherently risky. Under intense time pressure, people often: 1) Refuse to decide 2) “Jump to conclusions” 3) Ignore potentially important evidence 4) Have difficulty understanding data correlation Evidence The data: - Is usually uncertain, incomplete, ambiguous - Possibly conflicting - Arrives asynchronously TasktoStrategy Belief in HypothesesTime

9. Information Ops - Operator View Belief in evidence supporting associated hypothesis below blue line.Disbelief in evidence supporting associated hypothesis above red line.Amount of ignorance about associated hypothesis between lines. Evidence aboutassociated hypothesis

10. Pattern Discovery Given a large, dynamically changing database, a decision-maker must understand relationships among data fields, guard against corrupt data, and be alerted to changes in the underlying structure of the data. • Data Mining • Weka • Subdue • Weka uses Quinlan’s C5.0 Classifier to find underlying structure and build a rule tree that identifies “outliers”. • Inconsistencies, omissions, and conflicts are explicitly shown. • Weka uses statistical techniques for data extraction: • - Rule Induction • - Neural Networks • - Regression Modeling • K Nearest Neighbor Clustering • Subdue uses a Minimum Description Length (MDL) algorithm to compress and hierarchically cluster. Shallow Data(discover with SQL) Multi-Dimensional Data(discover with OLAP) Hidden Data(discover with Weka) OurEfforts Deep Data(discover only withmanual clues)

11. WEKA - Rule Induction View Rules that determine if a threat Surface-to-Air site is operational or not Legend:OPR -> OperationalNOP -> Non-Operational Lat > 39.459 OPR2 NOP Lat < 39.4Lon > 127.22 OPR56 NOP Lat > 39.1Lon < 127.231 OPR2 NOP Lat < 39.1Lon < 127.230 NOP SA-2s Lat > 38.5Lon < 127.21 OPR SA-330 NOP SA-3s

12. Strategy Determination/Detailed Planning • Course-of-Action Development • Detailed Plan Development The characteristics of this decision type are: 1) A decision-maker is given broad objectives that result in an ill-posed problem, 2) Exponential explosion of possible solutions, 3) Many dimensions and/or criteria, and 4) Difficulty in quantitatively rating the worth of a strategy. When faced with these circumstances, people often attempt to: 1) Recall a course-of-action that worked in previous similar circumstances, 2) Caucus to arrive at a consensus (i.e., group-think), or 3) Identify a dominant criteria and assemble a strategy around it. Because of the complexity and size of the planning space and the number of possible combinations of factors and constraints that must be considered during the planning phase, manual planning methods, and most current automated methods, are too narrowly focused, inflexible, time consuming, and not scalable.

13. COA/Detailed Planning Overview COACase Base ActiveOptions TargetStatus Detailed Plan ResponseOptions ActiveTargets Viable AreaTargets Option, Target... NameWeaponArenaType NameLocaleLocationTypeValueHardnessMobile Target Assessment Plan Optimization Static Status (Hardness, Mobility, etc.) JCSOrder ConstraintsSelection Criteria COA Planner NameTypeArenaWeapon Dynamic Status Target Selection Process COA NameKeywords

14. Strategy Determination - COA View This screen displays the “goodness-of-match” of the input Planning Order against previously stored cases to aid the analyst in generating a new Course-of-Action.

15. Detailed Planning - Operator View This screen allows the analyst to evaluate the effectiveness of additional plans and instantly see the diversity and details of each plan.

16. Summary • We have refined, tailored, and demonstrated innovative decision tools that span the full spectrum of JOPES command and control decision-making in these areas: • Situation diagnosis using a Dempster-Shafer Belief algorithm • Pattern discovery using Data Mining algorithms • Strategy determination using a Case-Based Reasoning algorithm • Detailed planning using a Genetic Algorithm • We have demonstrated the applicability of these algorithms and support tools in multiple mission domains: • IO/IW Defensive Counter-Information • Aerospace Operations Center (AOC) • Anti-terrorism • Strategic Deterrent Forces (SDF) and National Missile Defense (NMD) For more information, contact the author at Dennis.Ellis@trw.com