Achieving sustainable development

1. Achieving sustainable development R.K. Pachauri Chairman, IPCC Director-General, TERI ECOSOC Keynote Address on the theme “achieving sustainable development” New York, 30 June 2008 IPCC

2. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

3. The work of the IPCC is guided by the mandate given to it by its parent organisations: the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) Its role is to assess on a comprehensive, objective and transparent basis the scientific, technical and socio-economic information relevant to understanding the scientific basis of climate change, its potential impacts and options for adaptation and mitigation

4. Writing and review process of the IPCC assessment reports Experts review the first draft of the report Governments and experts review the second draft of the report and the draft Summary for Policymakers Governments review word-by-word the revised draft Summary for Policymakers

5. +2500 scientific expert reviewers 800 contributing authors 450 lead authors +130 countries The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (2007)

6. Economic and social aspects of climate change

7. 1.5 to 20% of GDPfor doubling of CO2 concentration • US$-10 to US$+350 per ton of carbon • Real social cost of carbon will rise by 2 to 4% per year Ranges for estimated aggregate costs of climate change impacts Variation between studiesare explained by uncertainties in climate sensitivity, discount rates, valuation of impacts, etc. Aggregate estimates mask significant differences in impacts across sectors and regions Aggregate estimates are confronted to the difficulty to monetise human, social, cultural & environmental impacts

8. 1.1 to 3.2 billion people will experience increased water scarcity by 2080 Crop revenues could fall by 90% by 2100 in Africa 20-30% of speciescould be at risk of extinctionif increases in warming >1.5-2.5°C Examples of climate change impacts • These expressions of risk are determined fundamentally by location in time and space

9. 9 Severe vulnerability 7 Moderate 6 Moderate 5 Modest 4 Modest 3 Little 2 Little No data Year 2100 10 Extreme 9 Severe 8 Serious 7 Moderate 6 Moderate 5 Modest No data Distribution of vulnerability Year 2050

10. The urgent need for mitigation

11. Global mean temp. increase (ºC) Stabilization level (ppm CO2-eq) Year CO2 needs to peak 2.0 – 2.4 445 – 490 2000 – 2015 2.4 – 2.8 490 – 535 2000 – 2020 2.8 – 3.2 535 – 590 2010 – 2030 3.2 – 4.0 590 – 710 2020 – 2060 Mitigation targets

12. Global average costs for stringent mitigationwould induce a slowing of global GDP growth of less than 0.12 points • Mitigation actions can result co-benefits that may offset a substantial fraction of mitigation costs Cost & timing of mitigation Due to the inertia of both climate and socio-economic systems, mitigation actions need to start in the short term in order to have medium- & longer-term benefits and to avoid lock-in of carbon-intensive technologies IPCC

13. Mitigation potential All stabilisation levels assessed can be achieved by deployment of a portfolio of technologies that are currently available or expected to be commercialised in coming decades • This assumes appropriate and effective incentives are in place for their development and diffusion 60-80% of GHG reductions would come from energy supply & use and industrial processes IPCC

14. Investment needs in energy supply Significantly de-carbonizing power production would require incremental investments of up to $40 billion/year globally; $30 billion/year in non-OECD countries1 • This would be offset by reduced investment requirements resulting fromimproved end-use energy efficiency • A global increased investment of US$2.4 trillion in improved efficiency would be more than offset by US$3 trillion savings in supply investments2 IPCC Sources: IPCC AR4 citing 1) WB, 2006 2) IEA, 2006

15. Perspectives on sustainable development

16. Social and environmental issues are often left without effective support when economic growth takes precedence Appropriate policies are key factors for improved sustainability & adaptive capacity Development & adaptation • Adaptation to the impacts of climate change & promotion of sustainable development share common goals & determinants: • Access to resources and equity • Stocks of human and social capital • Access to risk-sharing mechanisms • Institutional capacity

17. Committing to alternative development paths requires major changes in a wide range of areas: • Economic structure • Geographical distribution of activities • Consumption patterns • Demography Development & mitigation The dominant path to industrialisation has been characterised by high concurrent GHG emissions and pressure on natural resources IPCC

18. The cooperationofvarious levels of government, the private sector and civil society • Linking and coherence between policies addressing climate change, economic development, health, employment, energy security, and local environment Towards a new system of governance There is increasing recognition of a shift to a more inclusive concept of governance, including: • Involvement of the relevant partiesand policy coherence are essential to achieve the desired goals and ensure sustainability IPCC

19. Lighting a Billion Lives Campaign

20. 1.6 billion people lack access to electricity 33% live in India We commit to enable a billion lives to access light from solar technologies

21. Solar lantern Each solar lantern: • Saves about 40-60 litres of kerosene per year • Mitigates 145 kg of CO2 emissions per year Alternately: • Saves about 182.5 kWhr of electricity per year • Mitigates 157 kg of CO2 emissions per year

22. Gobindarampur: a village benefiting from the campaign Bani and her friends run and maintain the charging station Solar lanterns are used in livelihood activities such as betel leaf cultivation, coaching centres, and shops Solar lanterns have helped families in their daily activities

23. Gandhi was once asked if he expected India to attain the same standard of living as Britain. He replied: It took Britain half the resources of the planet to achieve this prosperity. How many planets will a country like India require!