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jemima-fisher

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“The Solar Tsunami”
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  1. “The Solar Tsunami” Get ready for dramatic improvements in solar with breakthroughs in quantum dot nanotechnology and the SpartzLight

  2. 1st Generation Silicon Solar Technology, 90% of the Market – “Too” Many Problems • Too expensive… $5+/watt, $7-8/watt installed • Too heavy/bulky…50 pounds/m2 • Too limited in output, re: peak sun hours…only averaging 2.5 hours/day (cloudy climate) - 5.5 (sunny) hours/day • Too limited in supply…silicon-grade solar shortages keep prices high and reduce availability • Too limited efficiency/m2…only 150 watts/m2 (at 15% efficiency) puts solar put at a low value for serious power applications.

  3. The Potential of Solar with Nanotechnology • Attractive pricing - Less than $2/watt compares at lower than conventional electrical power pricing • Ultralight/flexible – Suitable for a variety of applications without most weight or shaping restrictions • Delivers output from dawn to dusk – more than doubles the peak watts available vs. traditional solar resulting in better performance per day and faster ROI payback • Scaleable to vast supply – with screen-printing simplicity in a large-scale, high-speed process, the limits are not materials or throughput • Efficiency/m2 –not hundreds of watts, but kilowatts as a result of All Day Solar’s breakthrough Spartzlight technology.

  4. Three Generations of Solar Technology

  5. The future of solar is simple…get more watts per photon of sunlight! 1st and 2nd Generation Solar (1 photon of sunlight  single electrons) • Current efficiency  15%, or 150 watts/m2 • Maximum projected efficiency  32%, or 320 watts/m2 3rd Generation Solar (1 photon of sunlight  multiple excitons) • Maximum projected efficiency  65% to 100%, or 650 watts/m2 to 1000 watts/m2 The projected result is 4 – 6 times current solar efficiencies/m2.

  6. When with the Solar Tsunami hit shore…when will we get product? • Like a real tsunami heading for shore at 500mph, the jump from the lab to product delivery will surprise conventional wisdom and the ‘experts’. With the 1st and 2nd generation solar technology continuing to grow at 50%+ per year, this means that most people in the industry are focused on keeping up with demand rather than getting ready for the coming “Solar Tsunami”. • Nanotechnology improvements in the past two years have led to: • Rapid gains in efficiency and cost reductions • The projected efficiency/m2 is 4 – 6 times current solar product. • The SpartzLight Technology shrinks the footprint/m2 by 3-5 times over current solar product • The net combined result leaves existing solar technology obsolete.

  7. How does this work better than existing solar technology? 1st and 2nd generation solar technology process – one photon has enough energy to produce one electron Quantum dots can be blended and tuned to process the different wavelengths of infrared (IR), ultraviolet (UV) and the visible spectra of sunlight producing enough energy in a photon of sunlight to force multiple excitons to be released as solar current. The IR and UV spectra allows the quantum dot PV to effectively operate in low light/lumination and shade situations (dawn to dusk), which is not possible with 1st and 2nd generation solar technology.

  8. If quantum dot technology is the “computer”, then Spartzlight is the “software” • Thousands of quantum dot researchers are creating regular breakthroughs and further uses of this technology • A computer software analogy: • Whatever the efficiency results the quantum dot developers get per m2 (their chip-set power – the computer), the SpartzLight (software) gets 3-5x performance per m2 • Our “software” doesn’t work without the quantum dot “computer”!

  9. Small footprint (output/m2) is the key to expanding solar applications • A quantum dot product with 10% efficiency (100 watts/m2) in a market of 15% solar would not be as dramatic without the SpartzLight

  10. What about production costs? • 1st generation solar – crystalline silicon • 90% of market • Manufacturing cost is 65% of price • (i.e. $5/watt - $3/watt cost to mfg. ) • 2nd generation solar – thin-film • 10% of market • Lower costs through manufacturing • 3rd generation solar – quantum dot • As efficiency rises, costs drop dramatically • 10% - $0.60/watt to produce • 20% - $0.30/watt to produce • Doubling in efficiency = Half the cost per watt

  11. Increased hours/day output – Faster payback! • Current 1st and 2nd generation solar yields output averaging 2.5 hours/day (cloudy climate) – 5.5 hours/day (sunny climate) • Quantum dot solar can deliver output from dawn to dusk (9-12 hours) • More than doubles the peak hours of output • Cuts payback time in half • Delivers output in low light/shade conditions not possible with 1st and 2nd generation solar

  12. Scalability – Size is not an issue • 8 MW/day per plant (at 10% efficiency, $1/watt cost) • 2.9 GW/year • Screen printing simplicity combined with low-cost plant setup ($5-8 million equipment) • Increasing efficiency increases output without additional costs • 20% efficiency - doubles output at same cost - $.50/watt • 40% efficiency - $.25/watt • Potential of 65%-100% efficiency - huge advantage in cost reductions ($.05-10/watt? In a power market where competitive peak power is $3/watt, this moves markets!)

  13. Rapid growth in applications previously not suitable for solar • Low cost/fast payback - $<3/watt/2.2 years • High volume production – 3 GWs per plant • Much smaller footprint – only 20-25% required • Doubling of peak solar hours/day – peak shaving load needs 9-12 hours/day • Expansion in the use and value of solar electricity and distributed generation applications previously not suitable for solar – Plug-in hybrid vehicles, laptops, street lighting, etc.

  14. Economic development – Communities create their own ‘Non-Silicon Valley’ • Local multipliers – the key to creating your own ‘Non-Silicon Valley’ • Jobs to build power supply • Money, power and ownership stays in town • Regional cooperative growth developments • Local financing – local gains/taxes/payments • Lower fixed operating costs for government/services • Support local energy security needs with lower fuel volatility risks and zero emissions

  15. What we know – Size matters • At the nanometer scale, size matters in big ways! Its no longer one photon of sunlight delivering one electron…IR (3-1) and UV (7-1) ratios • Demonstrating unique capabilities over silicon-based and other thin-film solutions

  16. What we know – Upside potential • For 100% of today’s solar market, one photon of sunlight = one electron • Today’s solar market – 33% maximum theoretical efficiency – 330 watts per square meter • The new quantum dot solar market – 65 -100% theoretical efficiency means 650-1000 watts per square meter. With the addition of the SpartzLight at 3-5X reduction of footprint, that means the theoretical efficiency per square meter jumps to 2600-4000 watts.

  17. What we know – Low-cost, simple application methods • Much lower-cost printing methods have been demonstrated • screen-printing, • ink-jet printing, • and even paint-on film • Each of these lower-cost printing methods leads to rapid scalability

  18. What we know – Chemical processing • The biggest leap area of them all…we’ve known for years about the quantum dot’s efficiency potential at the nanoscale level, low-cost printing was assumed…now the chemical processing methods and costs are changing faster than envisioned. • The past year breakthroughs demonstrated: large batches in 2 hours of processing, at room temperature, without a clean room, water-based, non-solvent chemicals at a small fraction (1/5th) of costs a year ago.

  19. What we know – Wavelength tunability • At the nanometer scale, different mixtures of quantum dot sizes for IR/UV and visible spectra produce different results. • Peer-reviewed proven results – longer hours with IR-emphasized quantum dot formulas • This continual progress in wavelength tunability refinements will support solar products for all levels of illumination

  20. What we know – Big worldwide effort in nanotechnology/quantum dots • National labs - NREL, Los Alamos, Berkeley, etc. • Universities (Hundreds) - UofToronto, Buffalo, MIT, Rice, ND, Pitt, Clemson, Penn State, etc. • Countries - U.S., Germany, UK, Korea, China, Japan, Finland, France, Israel, etc. • Corporate Labs - Evident Tech, Quantum Dot Corp., 3M, IBM, HP, etc. • Learning curve is improving due to increased funding, breakthroughs and parallel fields of opportunity - display technologies, quantum computers, optical networking, etc.

  21. How long before the first quantum dot “computer” arrives in the market? • Preparing for the Solar Tsunami – realistically, we need to get corporations, communities, and countries ready yesterday/ASAP • Coordination takes time - It takes a lot of people, money, and planning to use 8 MW/day of solar, per plant, regardless of the exciting cost/benefit! • Suppliers, customers, and the plans to handle the flow of product requires preparation – whether the first “computer” arrives in 6 months or 2 years, the infrastructure to absorb the supply takes time.

  22. Jobs/Economic Development • Scalable Output = Local Jobs + Creative Development • Gigawatts of solar = tens of thousands of jobs (with industry estimates of 35 jobs per MW…1 GW = 35,000 jobs) • How? New technology boosts job growth in many areas that won’t require outsourcing or imported technologies • Job growth related to: Inverters, energy storage, cabling/ wiring, engineering/ design, manufacturing, installation, distribution, financing, software/ smart grid needs, planning/marketing, etc.

  23. Economic development – Communities create their own ‘Non-Silicon Valley’ • Local multipliers – the key to creating your own ‘Non-Silicon Valley’ • Jobs to build power supply • Money, power and ownership stays in town • Regional cooperative growth developments • Local financing – local gains/taxes/payments • Lower fixed operating costs for government/services • Support local energy security needs with lower fuel volatility risks and zero emissions

  24. Spartzlight “Software” supports the overall growth of the market • Miniaturization improved the ‘sellability’ and growth of the computer industry and it will make a significant difference with the Solar Tsunami • The SpartzLight Technology reduces the “footprint” of the “computer” by 3-5 times per m2 • Like the BASF ads claim…”We don’t make the solar…we make the solar better” • An example of synergy: Storage technologies seeking to improve hybrid cars benefit with our SpartzLight Software with increasing efficiency from quantum dots advances that improves the overall effectiveness of their product.

  25. Growth markets for the Spartzlight Product • At kilowatts/m2, the Solar Tsunami is here • Stationary – the primary market • Grid-support, stand-alone, backup • Vehicle - • Car, truck, boat, RV • Mobile • Computing, communications • Storage support – our parallel growth partners • Battery, hydrogen, etc.

  26. Key accelerators for the Solar Tsunami – Market forces • Rapidly rising energy prices – builds urgency for renewable energy and makes solar more cost-competitive • Record peak power demands and outages put additional strain on the electricity grid • The search for energy security in an insecure world – loss of faith in existing systems pulls research and buyers forward faster than normal market conditions • Global warming/climate change/”scorched earth” scenarios – growing urgency for the sake of our kids and communities • Jobs and economic development – the need to locally build energy self-sufficiency and sustainable high-growth industry

  27. Key accelerators for the Solar Tsunami – Technology forces • Battery technology – new methods store 4 times more, recharge faster and weigh a fraction of older battery technologies • The speed of Internet communication – reduces the time for breakthroughs to be leveraged by other researchers • But the biggest accelerator of all?Corporate desire to reduce energy bills. The Solar Tsunami dramatically cuts long-term peak power costs for the biggest pool of money and the most persistent market catalyst.

  28. Count on it - the fastest accelerator to the Solar Tsunami - corporation profits • Corporations and capitalism – the business of making profitable decisions in the best interests of their investors • Lacking loyalty to high-cost utility alternatives – they’ll choose cost savings every time • Peak power cost savings with quantum dot solar will boost profits and speed installations • The greater the savings – the faster the acceptance and installation – the larger the Solar Tsunami

  29. Final thought… • What would you do right now if you knew that within the next year you have the power to install GWs of solar at $3/watt that work 9-12 hours/day on one-fourth the size/m2 – more than twice the output per square meter of any other solar product in the market at less than one-third the cost? • Surprise! That brutal awareness/shock of what you need to get in place is a little vision proceeding the sheer speed (500mph+) of the Solar Tsunami. (Don’t say I didn’t warn you…) • Thomas Spartz - 7/16/2006