Deputy Assistant Administrator Mitigation Directorate

1. FEMA’s Utilization of Tropical Forecasts and Products Deputy Assistant Administrator Mitigation Directorate Michael Buckley

2. FEMA’s Utilization of Tropical Forecasts & Products • Background on the Hurricane Program • How we use products • Examples

3. When disaster strikes: Local officials are on the front lines tasked with getting citizens to safety. The National Hurricane Program Mission: Optimize the performance of the National Emergency Management System for hurricanes and tropical cyclones.

4. Hurricane Program Activities • Planning, Preparedness & Outreach: • Hurricane Evacuation Studies (HES) • Standards, Funding and Management • Decision Making tool support: • HURREVAC • SLOSH • Response: • Hurricane Liaison Team support: • Partnerships with NHC, NWS, RFC, HPC… • Connection to state and local decision makers • Post Storm Assessments: • Behavioral, transportation, hazards, vulnerability analysis

5. FEMA/ICCOH Partnerships • National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration • National Weather Service • National Hurricane Center • United States Army Corps of Engineers • United States Department of Transportation • State Emergency Management Agencies • National Emergency Management Association • American Red Cross

6. Hurricane Liaison Team • Mission: • Support hurricane response operations through the rapid exchange of critical information between the National Hurricane Center and emergency managers at all levels. • Team: • FEMA staff, National Weather Service meteorologists and hydrologists

7. Hurricane Liaison Team • Activates when a hurricane threatens the United States or territories, and the National Hurricane Center deems the assistance is required • Establishes and facilitates audio and video teleconferences with the National Hurricane Center, FEMA and other Federal agencies, and State Emergency Operations Centers (EOCs) • Responds to emergency management questions and concerns • Relays weather-related and emergency management issues to NHC specialists, HLT meteorologists, hydrologists, or NWS Forecast Offices

8. The Use of Advisory information • Graphical representation of forecast track, error cone, wind radii is used • Interpolation of forecast to gauge decision timing • Intensity, forward speed, and size are important • Discussion of confidence and likely track/intensity scenarios kept in mind • EMs just figuring out Wind Speed Probabilities • Could be a very powerful product used in decision making! • Need more storms under the belt to figure them out

9. Hazard & Impact information • Use of SLOSH Display • MOMs and MEOWs of surge to help identify problem areas • Actual runs for post impact visualization • HURREVAC! • Decision making and timing • Then input to HAZUS MH: wind damage impact estimator • Use of SERFC outlooks and HPC rainfall forecast graphics

10. Briefing Examples

11. TD? Tropical Wave ?

12. Example of long range planning Thurs Wed Tues Mon

13. Hurricane Track Models • Track and Intensity forecasts used • Used in conjunction with Forecast Discussion • Helps with forecast confidence and worst case scenarios (possible tracks mentioned by forecasters) • Decisions based on official track (hopefully) • Used prior to named storm and forecast • Still misunderstanding some of the uses • Should be used by forecasters not EM

14. Does this help?

15. Is this good news?

16. Graphical Tropical Weather Outlooks-very well received!

17. Trying to provide a consistent message • From Post Storm Assessments: • A Consistent message is important • Multiple sources with reaffirming information helps decision makers • Exceedingly difficult with availability of • Independent forecasts • Model output • Information on the web