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Climate scenarios for hydrological and environmental impact studies in Belgium. Patrick Willems K.U.Leuven - Hydraulics Division. Recent and on-going climate change related research projects. PhD researchers in italic. Belgium:

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climate scenarios for hydrological and environmental impact studies in belgium

Climate scenarios for hydrological and environmental impact studies in Belgium

Patrick Willems

K.U.Leuven - Hydraulics Division

recent and on going climate change related research projects
Recent and on-going climate change related research projects

PhD researchers in italic

Belgium:

  • Federal Science Policy: climate change impacts on hydrological extremes in Belgium (Victor Ntegeka)
  • Flemish Government of Belgium – WL: impacts on river high and low flows (Thomas Vansteenkiste)
  • Environment Agency (VMM):
    • Impacts on floods (EU Flood Directive implementation)
    • Update of urban drainage design guidelines
  • MIRA-S: review of climate change impacts on water management
  • INBO: climate scenarios for impact analysis on nature
  • Federal Science Policy: climate change impacts on river water quality (Liliana Pagliero)

Nile Basin: impact on high and low flow extremes (Paul Ogiramoi Nyeko, Sara Girma Mille, Meron Teferi)

Tarim basin China: impact on hydrology (Tie Liu)

Paute basin Ecuador: impact on hydrology (Diego Mora)

slide3

Selected approach for hydrological impact analysis of climate change

Hydrological / environmental impact model

Historical

today

series

Climate

change

Historical

impact

series

climate

change

+

perturbation

scenario

Hydrological system

Climate system

slide4

Downscaling of climate model simulation results

Large Scale

General Circulation Models (GCMs)

150 – 300 km; seasonally – monthly

Dynamical downscaling

Regional Climate Models (RCMs)

± 50 km; weekly - daily

± 25 km; daily

Statistical downscaling

river subcatchment scale, point scale

river catchment: hourly; urban drainage systems: 10 min

Hydrological scale

slide5

Statistical downscaling

GCMs 300 km

RCMs 50 km

RCMs 25 km

  • 3 types of methods considered and advanced:
  • Quantile-perturbation based methods (SD-A)
  • Weather typing based methods (SD-B)
  • Combined methods (SD-C)

Large scale

“predictants”

Local scale

“predictors”

Rainfall-runoff model

Hydrological system

Climate system

slide6

GCM-RCM runs for Belgium

simulations of IPCC greenhouse gas emission scenarios by 2100:

European PRUDENCE project: 10 RCMs, 31 simulations (A2,B2)

IPCC AR4: 21 GCMs, 27 simulations (A2, A1B, B1)

DMI 25 km

slide7

Quantile perturbation factors

RCM

Probability distribution / IDF

30 years daily series

today

= control run (1961 – 1990)

Comparison quantiles

Probability distribution / IDF

30 years daily series

scenario

scenario

= scenario run (2071 – 2100)

slide8

Rainfall IDF-relations

10 min Uccle series:

Return period:

100 years

10 years

1 year

1 month

slide9

Change in IDF-relations

Daily rainfall results, 17 ECHAM5 runs:

slide10

Change in IDF-relations

SD-A-5, 17 ECHAM5 runs:

slide11

µ

% change in rainfall, temperature and ETo by 2100

  • Dependent on:
    • Time scale
    • (hour, day, week, month, season)
    • Return period / frequency
    • (incl. extreme rainfall)
    • Region
    • (15% higher at Belgian coast)
  • Accounting for uncertainties in climate model results and future greenhouse gas emissions

(31 RCM runs A2/B2; 27 GCM runs A2/A1B/B1)

: summarized in High, Mean and Low scenarios

Rainfall extremes

% rainfall change

Return period

Belgian coast

slide12

Climate change scenarios: perturbation factors on rainfall and ETo quantiles

High scenario

Mean scenario

Low scenario

Example: Perturbation factors for daily winter rainfall extremes:

slide13

CCI-HYDR high, mean and low climate change scenarios

High / Wet

IMPACT

Floods

Mean / Mild

Low / Dry

Low flows

CCI-HYDR Perturbation Tool:

slide14

Selected approach for hydrological impact analysis of climate change

Hydrological / environmental impact model

Historical

today

series

Climate

change

Historical

impact

series

climate

change

+

perturbation

scenario

Hydrological system

Climate system

slide15

River high flow impact results

Regional differences hourly runoff peaks:

  • Change in flood risks is highly uncertain
    • Runoff peaks due to rainfall/ETo change decrease in low scenario and increase in high scenario (up to 35%)
    • Major influence due to sea level rise (Scheldt tidal river)
slide16

River low flow impact results

Regional differences low flow extremes:

  • Low flow risks increase significantly in all scenarios
    • May increase problems rel. water quality, navigation, drinking water production, ...
slide17

Spatial flood map impact results

Flood mapping (before climate change):

T = 100 year

Current climate

slide18

Spatial flood map impact results

Flood mapping (after climate change till 2100):

T = 100 year

High scenario

slide19

River water quality impact results

Physico-chemical water quality processes considered:

research challenges
Research challenges
  • High uncertainties in climate scenarios:
    • How to calculate?
    • How to communicate to end users?
    • How to incorporate in impact investigations?
    • How to limit number of required impact simulations (scenarios, physical consistency between rainfall, temperature, ETo, ...)?
  • Limited accuracy of RCM results for rainfall (extremes)
    • Direct use of rainfall RCM results versus weather typing based downscaling methods?
  • Statistical downscaling to 10min and point scales:
    • Several methods and assumptions: ensemble approach on different downscaling methods to be recommended?