Population - Environment Relationships: Ideas and Observations

1. Population - Environment Relationships: Ideas and Observations UCAR August 1, 2001 Gayl D. Ness University of Michigan Department of Sociology email: gaylness@umich.edu

2. Contents IDEAS: Four Basic Principles. 1. No direct relationship 2. We can find examples of all forms 3. Quality of Life is the most important outcome 4. Actions and outcomes are location-specific OBSERVATIONS: Examples of varying P-E relations in three cities. Fisalabad, Pakistan: poor and badly governed; Khon Kaen, Thailand: Better, but still with problems; Kobe, Japan: High life quality.

3. The first principle is: 1. There is no direct relationship between population and environment

4. 2. We can find real life examples of all population-environment relationships Environmental change Enhancement Degradation Most Common Perception Singapore; Hinalayan deforestation; Curitaba, Brazil Amazon forests; African forests, savannah, etc Population Change Decline Growth Japanese and European Thai Gibbon sancturay; Alpine rural exodus reduces biodiveristy

5. 3. For our analyses we use a “metabolic” model of the urban system, which proposes that the Quality of Life is the most important outcome of all P-E relationships

6. 4. All population environment relationships are location-specific. All results are determined by some form of local human technology; and some form of local human social organization. This means especially that people and their governments are basically responsible for the outcome of any specific population environment relationship Let me illustrate this principle with three very different examples of Asian urban population environment dynamics

7. In 1998-9 we did a study of population environment relationships in five Asian cities: resulting in this book

8. This map show the location of the five cities. What follows will deal with only three.

9. Faisalabad Pakistan is a great arid plain lying between India and Afghanistan. Though rainfall is a mere 2-3 inches per year, the country is well watered by the great Indus river system that brings huge amounts of waters from the high Himalayas through the plain, to debouche into the Arabian sea near Karachi. Under British colonial and independent Pakistani governments, canals and dams have brought these waters to vast expanses of land, making Pakistan one of the world’s most irrigated countries. The waters produce grains, fruits and cottons, bringing considerable wealth to the country. Is it sustainable??

10. Faisalabad is a new textile town, created 100 years ago by a canal bringing Chenab River waters to a previously arid “wetland.”

11. We modeled Faisalabad’s future growth.

12. Added to the potential for agricultural collapse is the tragedy of weak government, rapid population growth and a young population The Pakistani government is currently unable to provide good educational and health services to its population. People have given up on government; private services of all kinds are growing rapidly. More seriously…. There are currently some 8 million young males (ages 15-19) in Pakistan. Their numbers will certainly grow to about 12 million over the next 20 years. With no schools or jobs for most, where will they go? What will they do? The potential for instability within Pakistan, between Pakistan and India (two nuclear powers), and in the rest of South Asia is substantial.

13. Khon Kaen, Thailand Khon Kaen lies in the center of Thailand’s Northeast region. It rests on a rolling plateau, served by three rivers that drain into the mighty Mekong River. It is know as the “Heart of the Northeast.”

14. A very successful family planning program brought fertility from natural to controlled levels from 1965-85; greatly reducing all population pressures on the country and the city.

15. Young men are all in schools, sports and scouts, with reasonable chances for jobs. And their numbers are declining! There were 3.1 million in 1985 and 2.8 million in 2000.

16. Pusan is South Korea’s major seaport Kobe is the same for Japan Both are modern, well developed cities that have emerged like a phoenix from recent near total destruction. They both provide a high quality of life for their people, but have some problems lurking in the future. What population-environment problems do they have? Here we consider only Kobe

17. Kobe is Japan’s major seaport. It lies on the north edge of Osaka Bay. The Japanese current runs outside the bay from SW to NE, pulling pollutants out of the bay into the sea. An effective government at national and city levels helped turn environmental advantages into high quality of life for Kobe’s citizens.

18. Kobe is also blessed with favorable air currents that remove pollution. But it is hemmed in by geography. It lies on a narrow shelf 4 km X 20 km, between the deep bay and rugged Rokko Mountains.

19. Kobe solved its space problem with a dramatic engineering feat. It cut off the tops of some mountains, built new towns there, and dumped the fill into the sea to create two artificial islands ringed by container ports, and containing apartments and many amenities.

20. A topographic drawing showing Kobe and its islands

21. A larger view of Rokko Mountains, Kobe and Port Island

22. Islands are linked to the central city by fully computerized electric trains. The city has built a highly efficient mass transit electric train system, which moves people efficiently and cleanly.

23. Population growth has now slowed, but the chart shows dramatic dips during World War II, and in the 1995 earthquake.

24. But for all its progress, Kobe has at least two major P-E problems. One concerns vehicles, air quality and health, as seen in…..

26. Stella Model of Kobe’s Air Quality

27. Projected vehicle growth with current emissions technology will likely increase air pollution, causing an estimated 10,000 more deaths between 1995 and 2020.

28. The Second Problem concerns AGING. This is a major problem for all low fertility countries. Low fertility implies: Increases in the aged, Reductions in the young, Ultimate reduction of the overall population, and A demand for immigration or changes in the internal labor force conditions.

29. More serious problems lie ahead in the changing age structure, the aging of the population. Japan, like much of Europe, faces a “population bust,” for which easy solutions are not now in sight.

30. Lessons There is no direct relationship between population and environment. We have seen examples of many different relationships. Local conditions pose specific challenges; all relationships are location-specific. Reducing fertility and population growth provide major benefits to both people and the environment. The major outcome of any population-environment relationship is the quality of life for both current and future populations. A major determinant of quality of life is human social-political-economic-cultural institutions and conditions. We Are Responsible!