World Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and water

1. World Meteorological OrganizationWorking together in weather, climate and water WMO WMO Operational network and technical capabilities for provision of Meteorological, Hydrological, and Climate Services 7.2 “RSMCs, RCCs, Drought Monitoring” P. Chen, L. Malone & K. Kolli, R. Stefanski First meeting of the Task Team on Meteorological Services for improved humanitarian planning and response Geneva, 31 Aug. – 2 Sep. 2010 www.wmo.int

2. Outline WMO • WMO Meteorological Operations • WMO Global Data Processing and Forecasting System - • “GDPFS” • Enhancing Warning Services through “SWFDP” • Regional Climate Centres (RCC) • Drought Monitoring operations

3. Numerical simulations of the atmosphere “In general, the public is not aware that our daily weather forecasts start out as initial value problems on the major national weather services supercomputers. Numerical weather prediction provides the basic guidance for weather forecasting beyond the first few hours.” - Eugenia Kalnay (2009)

4. WMO operational networks 189 NMHSs: satellites, land, ships, buoys, and aircraft contribute to Global Observing every day Global Telecom with Regional Hubs – becoming the WMOInformation System The GDPFS: Global, Regional Specialized Met. Centres (RSMC, RCC), and National Centres NMHSs deliver analyses, forecast and early warning services

5. WMO Global Data-Processing and Forecasting System (GDPFS) • “Through its global network of operational meteorological centres …makes available to Members weather and climate analyses, forecasts and predictions, to enable Membersto provide … high-quality predictions and forecasts, warning and information services…” • Outputs of the NWP Systems, including EPS, LRF, dispersion modelling, ranging from very-short-range (<12 hr), to seasonal predictions • GDPFS supports many Services, through WMO programmes, and relevant programmes of other International Organizations, e.g. ICAO, UN-OCHA, WHO, UNESCO/IOC, UNOSAT, IAEA, CTBTO, others

6. WMO Global Data-Processing and Forecasting System A global network of operational Global, Regional, National Meteorological Centres Global NWP WMC Nesting limited-area NWP NMC RSMC Global LRF GPC LC RCC Global ATM NMC Regional NWP and Guidance RSMC NMC Regional LRF RCC

7. GDPFS relative to Meteorological Services for Disaster Risk Reduction • Operational infrastructure of National Meteorological Centres, Regional Specialized Meteorological Centres (RSMC), Regional Climate Centres (RCC) • Numerical Weather Prediction outputs for 24/7 forecasting of severe and high-impact weather • Probabilistic approach to forecasting hazardous events, e.g. use of “ensemble” products to extend the lead-time • Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project

8. Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP) - Building Capacity Regional approach with very positive learning experiences • Enhancing the use of existing GDPFS products • Regional partnership / operational framework to build forecasting capacity and service delivery in developing countries (Srn & Ern Africa, South Pacific, SE Asia, so far) Cascading Forecasting Process: • Global NWP/EPS products tailored and provided by major GDPFS Centres • Regional guidance: RSMC (LAM, daily synthesis) through a dedicated Web site/portal • Accelerated technology transfer and ongoing on-job training • Improved meteorological services (public and key sectors) • Project accountability

9. Support to humanitarian planning and response – some considerations • Public info vs support to decision making • Open-source vs authoritative information • 24/7 real-time services vs “morning news” • Routine vs specialized forecasts • National vs regional forecasts • Guidance vs predictions vs warnings • Coordination vs operational services • Planning vs implementation and testing Overarching: • Arrangements, quality assurance, accountability • Long-term sustainability and relevance

10. WMO Regional Climate Centres (RCC) • Centres of Excellence, designated by WMO, to perform consistent, regional-scale climate functions including for prediction and monitoring • On request of a country, an RCC could provide additional products to facilitate climate services at national level • National-scale products and warnings will continue to be the responsibility of the NMHS • RCCs will support consensus building and user interaction through RCOFs • RCC will contribute to increased knowledge through development of enhanced regional focus/information, which should lead to improved confidence of users in the use of climate products

11. Core Functions of RCCs • Operational activities for Long-Range Forecasting (seasonal) • Operational activities for Climate Monitoring • Operational data services, to support operational LRF and climate monitoring • Training in the use of operational RCC products and services

12. RCC ‘Highly Recommended’ Functions • Climate prediction and projection • Non-operational data services • Coordination functions • Training and capacity building • Research and development

13. GDPFS - RCCs - Status • Designation Criteria approved by WMO EC (June 2009) • RA II (Asia) • Beijing and Tokyo designated as RCCs (June 2009) • India, Iran, Russia and Saudi Arabia pursuing RCC implementation in Asia • RA VI (Europe) • Pilot phase of RCC Network launched with nodes at Moscow, Toulouse, Offenbach, Amsterdam (others identified to be contributing partners to the nodes) • RA I (Africa) • Planning several multifunctional RCCs based on existing regional centres (e.g.ACMAD, ICPAC, SADC-DMC).

14. GHACOF Products & Applications

15. WMO Supports Developing Countries on Drought Issues Through National and Regional Projects Common themes for operational services: • Modernization of NMHSs and observing networks • Implementation of national operational multi-hazard early warning systems • Strengthening of hazard analysis and hydro-meteorological risk assessment tools • Strengthening NMHSs cooperation with civil protection and disaster risk management agencies • Coordinated training and public outreach programmes

16. Drought Monitoring Centres (DMC) for Eastern and Southern Africa • Established in 1989/90 with UNDP funding, WMO as Executing • Agency • Currently operational centres in Nairobi, Kenya (ICPAC), and • Gaborone, Botswana (SADC) monitor drought, impact on • agricultural production and issue early warnings • Providing 10-day weather advisories, climatological summaries, • Agro-Met conditions and impacts, synoptic review and weather • outlooks • These centres also the focus of RCOFs for their regions • ACMAD (Niger) also involved in drought monitoring

17. WMO & United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) worked together to establish the Drought Management Centre for Southeastern Europe (DMCSEE) in Slovenia • WMO, UNCCD, and OSCE also working on establishing Drought Management Center for Central Asia (DMCCA) www.dmcsee.org

18. WMO Centres, the layout so far…… Moscow ECMWF Exeter Montreal Beijing DMCSEE Toulouse Seoul Tokyo Washington LC-LRFMME ACMAD ICPAC CIIFEN Pretoria Gobal Producing Centres of Long Range Forecasts (GPCs) SADC-DMC Melbourne CPTEC Regional Climate Centres (RCCs) RCC Network Nodes (Pilot) LC-SVSLRF Regional Specialized Meteorological Centres with Activity Specialization LC-SVSLRF: Lead Centre for Standardized Verification System for Long Range Forecasts LC-LRFMME: Lead Centre forLong Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble Regional Specialized Meteorological Centres with Geographical Specialization Regional climate institutions with strong WMO support Sand & Dust Storm Warning & Assessment System Centres Monsoon Activity Centres

19. Advances in Weather Forecasts

20. World Meteorological OrganizationWorking together in weather, climate and water WMO WMO Operational network and technical capabilities for provision of Meteorological, Hydrological, and Climate Services Thank You !! GDPFS: pchen@wmo.int asoares@wmo.int RCC: kkolli@wmo.int lmalone@wmo.int Drought monitoring: rstefanski@wmo.int www.wmo.int