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Integrated Assessment and Modelling: Introduction to training exercises

Integrated Assessment and Modelling: Introduction to training exercises. RICHARD WARRICK International Global Change Institute (IGCI) University of Waikato New Zealand. This presentation will:. Provide an overview of integrated assessment and modelling

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Integrated Assessment and Modelling: Introduction to training exercises

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  1. Integrated Assessment and Modelling:Introduction to training exercises RICHARD WARRICK International Global Change Institute (IGCI) University of Waikato New Zealand

  2. This presentation will: • Provide an overview of integrated assessment and modelling • Describe the SimCLIM system for national and sub-national assessments • Introduce the hands-on training session

  3. Part 1: Integrated Assessment and Models

  4. What is meant by “assessment”? - Part I: Integrated Assessment Models - Integrated Assessment Models

  5. Assessments What do we know? What don’t we know? Technical analyses and studies PAST FUTURE What needs to be done? Priority gaps and needs? time - Climate impacts and adaptation - Assessment Process Products, e.g. National Communications Project development

  6. What is meant by “integrated” assessment? - Part I: Integrated Assessment Models - Integrated Assessment Models

  7. Global Warming wetter drier - what is meant by integrated assessment? - Vertically integrated Global Regional Local sectoral agriculture

  8. Global Warming wetter drier - what is meant by integrated assessment? - Vertically integrated Global Regional Local sectoral agriculture

  9. Global Warming coastal water health Drought Risk Epidemic Risk Flood Risk Coastal Risk - what is meant by integrated assessment? - Horizontally integrated Global Regional Local sectoral agriculture

  10. Global Warming wetter drier coastal water health Drought Risk Epidemic Risk Flood Risk Coastal Risk - what is meant by integrated assessment? - Fully integrated Global Regional Local sectoral agriculture

  11. What is meant by integrated assessment “model”? - Part I: Integrated Assessment Models - Integrated Assessment Models

  12. Key components of full-scale IAMs Atmospheric Composition Climate & Sea Level Atmospheric Chemistry Climate Ocean Carbon Cycle • Ocean • Temperature • Sea level Human Systems Ecosystems Energy System Other Human Systems Terrestrial Carbon Cycle Unmanaged Ecosystems Agriculture, Livestock & Forestry Coastal System Crops & Forests Hydrology (Weyant et al., IPCC, 1996)

  13. EXAMPLE: Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM) (NIES, Japan)

  14. Study Area of AIM (NIES, Japan)

  15. End-to-end characterisation of IAMs Energy System Other Emissions Emissions Agriculture Atmospheric Chemistry Atmospheric Composition Ocean carbon Cycle Climate Climate & Sea Level • Ocean • Temperature • Sea level Hydrology Coastal System Impacts Crops & Forestry Health & other (Weyant et al., IPCC 1996)

  16. EXAMPLE:MAGICC/SCENGEN Greenhouse gas emissions MAGICC Global mean temperature change GCM patterns Climatologies SCENGEN Regional Scenarios of Climate Change

  17. Part 2: The SimCLIM models for national and sub-national assessments

  18. The SimCLIM Models (the “first generation” structure)

  19. PACCLIM (Pacific Island region) VANDACLIM (fictitious country) FijiClim (Viti Levu) CHAMP (New Zealand) CANCLIM (Canada) BDCLIM (Bangladesh) HOTSPOTS (NZ) OZCLIM (Australia) CLIMPACTS (New Zealand) 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 SimCLIM Models VANDACLIM (island version) TOPOCLIM (NZ)

  20. For Example: FIJICLIM Mean Annual Precipitation 2070 Climate:

  21. Current Average Climate El Nino Drought Climate Change 2050 with El Nino Drought GREEN = highly suitable soils and climate BROWN = least suitable Example: FijiCLIM, Dalo Suitability Impacts:

  22. SimCLIMs can be used to: • Describe baseline climates • Examine current climate variability and extremes • Assess risks – present and future • Investigate adaptation – present and future • Create climate change scenarios • Conduct sensitivity analyses • Project sectoral impacts of climate and sea level change • Examine risks and uncertainties • Facilitate integrated impact analyses

  23. A customised, prototype SimCLIM model can be developed for AIACC projects • Data Required: • Spatially interpolated monthly climatologies • Time-series climate data for stations (monthly or daily) • Downscaled, standardised patterns of monthly temperature and precipitation changes from GCMs. • Digital elevation model (optional)

  24. Part 3: The “hands-on” training exercise

  25. - Hands-on Training Exercise - Objective To gain practical experience in: • selected elements of integrated assessment • using an Integrated Assessment Model

  26. - Hands-on Training Exercise - The “Republic of Vanda Islands”(an imaginary country)

  27. - Hands-on Training Exercise - Using: The Island Version Developed by the International Global Change Institute, University of Waikato, New Zealand

  28. - Hands-on Training Exercise - Problem Focus: Risk Reduction • Assess current climatic risks • Assess adequacy of current adaptation to climatic variability and extremes • Develop scenarios of future climate changes • Assess possible future changes in risk • Assess adaptation options for reducing future risks • Estimate incremental cost ratios

  29. - Hands-on Training Exercise - • Coastal Flood Risk (storm surges) • Agricultural Drought Risk • Risks of Groundwater shortage • Drought risk to water supply Choice of 4 Training Groups

  30. - Hands-on Training Exercise - Sessions • All four training groups in each session • No more than four persons per group • Each session repeated four times

  31. The End… Thank you for your attention

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