UNDP Training Module Subject ModuleVolume 1 - Training ManualDemand Assessment Planning Subject Lecture Material (Full presentation)
Objectives of the Module • Educate the participants on • The need for demand assessment to make transportation decisions • Scientific basis for picking and planning projects • The time and money and data it takes to develop good forecasts and how to choose tools based on time and money • Cannot get the best if time and money are less • Assess the reasonableness of model assumptions and forecasts • Ensure that the model is fully validated against observed data • How to review traffic forecasts and check for reasonableness
Who Will the Users of this Module Be? • Policymakers, senior and mid-level staff at the national, state, and city levels, working on transport and related areas such as: land use and development, urban planning and design, environment, road safety, housing, and urban poverty alleviation. • NGOs
What is Demand Assessment Planning? • Assessing the demand for a transportation option in a region • Develop traffic forecasts for 10-25 year periods • Use the forecasts to develop a sustainable transportation system • Involves a complicated task of collecting existing transportation data to analyzing demand and forecast future needs • Demand Assessment is very common in private companies • They will never invest millions without assessing the demand • Use demand forecasts to come up with a production/operations plan
Example of Market Research in a Private Company • Periodically every company assesses its market position. If they need to change strategy, they research the market and create segments • What does the consumer want? • Wants are different based on education, income class, urban/rural, etc. • How much can he pay for the product? • What are the competing products? • How to maximize revenue and reputation? Give the consumer what he wants, when he wants, where he wants and at the price he wants
Example of Britannia • Britannia was a leader in the biscuit industry but they wanted to serve a wide range of customers • Divided the market into segments based on what they want • Healthy, Tasty, Cheap • How much can each segment pay for the product • High, Medium, Low • Competitors - Parle-G in low cost • How to maximize revenue and reputation • Enter the snacks and dairy market
Example of Britannia – cont’d... • Britannia introduced new products and changed the colors of its food packaging to showcase the choices of different target populations. Nutrition and Freshness
Example of Britannia – cont’d... • Britannia introduced new products and changed the colors of its food packaging to showcase the choices of different target populations. Purity Energy and Vitality
Same Concept in Transport Planning • Cater to different kinds of markets • Some people want wider roads and faster speeds • Some want better PT coverage • Some want safer pedestrian, cycle facilities • We all want less pollution • How to maximize revenue and reputation public service and reduce congestion • Reduce use of personal vehicles • Improve public transport
Same Concept in Transport Planning Give the consumer what he wants, when he wants, where he wants and at the price he wants • Provide Smart Mobility – Solutions for all population groups • Improve accessibility • Reduce congestion • Reduce pollution • Social equity • Good use of public funds
Why is Demand Assessment Planning Important? • Planning helps create a sustainable transportation system that results in increased economic activity • Failure to plan results in non-optimal choices that reduce mobility and increase vehicle ownership, leading to severe congestion • Essential to design a transportation system, plan operations, and forecast financial viability
Why is Demand Assessment Planning Important? • Demand Assessment identifies corridors with the most potential users. • Planning a new system where there is little to no demand is a waste of public money. • Planning a system with less capacity will make it crowded and not as attractive. • New systems should be built with enough capacity to last 10-20 years.
Example – Bangkok BTS Skytrain • An elevated heavy rail mass-transit system in downtown Bangkok along major roads • Operated by Bangkok Mass Transit System Public Company Limited (BTSC) • It consists of two intersecting lines – Sukhumvit and Silom, running to a total length of 30.95 kms with 32 stations
BTS Skytrain – Ridership Forecasts • Four ridership studies were undertaken by international firms, all showing similar forecasts. • A ridership of 6,00,000 riders per day was projected in the first year of operation. • Assumptions made were aggressive: such as diversion of 60% of bus riders to rail during peak hours. • In the first year of operation, a ridership of only 1,50,000 was recorded.
BTS Skytrain – Actual Ridership • In 2006, after six years of operation, a daily ridership of 3,50,000 was recorded. • Adverse effects of over-estimation of demand: • Station platforms are too long for the shortened trains that now operate in the system • A large number of trains and cars are idly parked in the train garage because there is no need for them • 1.5 billion USD spent and 5 years to build (1994-1999)
Delhi – Gurgaon Expressway • The Delhi-Gurgaon Expressway is a 28 km (17 miles) long access-controlled toll expressway connecting Delhi, the national capital of India, and Gurgaon, an important satellite city of Haryana. • The Expressway is a part of the Golden Quadrilateral Project, which itself is a part of the National Highway Development Project (NHDP). • Built at a cost of Rs. 10 billion, the expressway was opened to traffic in January 2008 and reduced the travel time from Delhi to Gurgaon from 65 minutes to 25 minutes.
Delhi – Gurgaon Expressway • It carries more than 180,000 PCUs per day, which is much higher than the traffic estimates for the project by 130,000 to 150,000 PCUs per day (the traffic is growing at 9% per year). • The substantially higher number of vehicles using the facility has often lead to a queuing up of vehicles at the toll plazas, which sometimes defeats the purpose of the expressway. • One of the reasons for this under-estimation was that NHAI relied on an outdated traffic study conducted in 1998 at the time of project procurement.
Common reasons for bad forecasts • Highly Optimistic Growth Scenarios for future. • Growth is never a straight line going up. What goes up comes down. • Poor Quality Data • The entire basis for forecasts is a statistical model based on data. • Garbage in Garbage out. • Statistically poor travel models due to bad data, lack of expertise and limited QA/QC. • Module has a checklist of items that need to be reviewed to ensure a sound model
Current Deficiencies and Solutions • No consistent baseline for planning studies • Problem: Consultants develop their own population/employment databases and forecasts using vastly different assumptions with no oversight. • Impact: Very easy to justify new developments if growth assumptions are high. Conflicting results from different studies using different assumptions. Result in lack of trust of the process. • Solution: One region, one approved demographic database.
Current Deficiencies and Solutions • Lack of sharing of Data. • Problem: Planning agencies do not take possession of their own models and data from consultants. • Impact: Every study results in new data collection, new model development and with differences in budget, time and expertise, results are very different. Gross wastage of money and time in redoing what has already been done. • Solution: You pay, you own (the model and data) and you share.
Current Deficiencies and Solutions • No QA/QC of the modeling process • Problem: Most cities do not have the capacity to review technical models • Impact: “The mice will play when the cat is away”. The best work is done only when there is a fear that somebody will check it. In the absence of a structured QA/QC process, the quality of work is highly questionable. • Solution: Review what you can or hire an independent expert
Current Deficiencies and Solutions • No single approved model for all studies • Problem: Most cities have several models built for various projects, each at various levels of detail, budget, data collection and expertise. • Impact: Impossible to evaluate projects if each of them uses different travel models and datasets. • Solution: One Region, One Database, One Model
Key Steps in Demand Assessment Planning • Definition of plans (mode, alignment, service etc) • Collect Primary and Secondary Data • Prepare a Baseline scenario depicting current ground conditions • Estimate travel models and validate them • Prepare forecasts • Evaluate several land use and transportation scenarios to prepare a final shortlist
1 Data for Demand Assessment
Why Do We Need Data? • Understand the socioeconomic and demographic profile of the population • Understand the existing transportation infrastructure • Understand travel patterns in the city • Understand the current situation with respect to traffic congestion, usage of public transport, adequacy of public transport (coverage, crowding, etc.)
What Do We Do with Data? • Create a baseline report to give current status • Create market segments • Identify the most "transit competitive" corridors • Develop Travel Demand Forecasting Models
Types of Data • Primary data: Primary data is original data that is collected specially for the project at hand. Data is collected as part of field research using interviews, focus groups, household surveys, origin-destination surveys, stated preference surveys etc. • Secondary data: This is data that has already been collected for another purpose. Examples include census data, employment/labour statistics, DMV motor vehicle data, etc.