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Beyond the 2011 Census: meeting housing requirements across the West Midlands

Beyond the 2011 Census: meeting housing requirements across the West Midlands. Demographic Change in the West Midlands. New Challenges in the new Millennium. Outline. Step change in population growth 2001-2011 The household – population relationship Changed geography of growth

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Beyond the 2011 Census: meeting housing requirements across the West Midlands

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  1. Beyond the 2011 Census:meeting housing requirements across the West Midlands

  2. Demographic Change in the West Midlands New Challenges in the new Millennium Greg Ball: Demographic Intelligence

  3. Outline • Step change in population growth 2001-2011 • The household – population relationship • Changed geography of growth • Ageing – an ongoing story • Future uncertain? • Limitations of data and projections Greg Ball: Demographic Intelligence

  4. 2011 Census • Confirmed that population growing rapidly • Found population was greater than expected • Implies past estimates of migration inaccurate • Most data yet to come • cross tabulations (tenure by age etc) • migration and commuting Greg Ball: Demographic Intelligence

  5. 1971-2001 • Limited population growth post baby boom • Background changes • Age structure • Intergenerational succession • Action elsewhere • Social, and household change • Policies - Right to Buy • Population explosion in cars • Collapse of mass manufacturing employment • Counter-urbanisation Greg Ball: Demographic Intelligence

  6. Population & Household GrowthWest Midlands 1971-2001 Greg Ball: Demographic Intelligence

  7. Drivers of Change?West Midlands Region Greg Ball: Demographic Intelligence

  8. 1971-2001Counter-urbanisation Greg Ball: Demographic Intelligence

  9. 2001-2011 • Take-off in population growth • International migration • More Births • Fewer Deaths • Slowdown in household formation? • Changing geography of demographic trends Greg Ball: Demographic Intelligence

  10. InternationalMigration Difficult to Define Measure But Clear change in order of magnitude since mid 1990s Greg Ball: Demographic Intelligence

  11. Natural Change 1971-2011(England) Greg Ball: Demographic Intelligence

  12. Population & Households West Midlands Region Greg Ball: Demographic Intelligence

  13. 2001-2011Metropolitan resurgence Greg Ball: Demographic Intelligence

  14. Drivers of metropolitan surge • International migration • More Births • Higher education boom • Reduced migration outflow? • Revised data awaited • Regeneration/city living/strategy? • Static housing market? Greg Ball: Demographic Intelligence

  15. InternationalMigration Census confirms immigration’s role in recent growth Metropolitan focus Revised data on flows awaited Greg Ball: Demographic Intelligence

  16. National Insurance Numbers for overseas nationals 2010-11 Greg Ball: Demographic Intelligence

  17. More Births in the cities Greg Ball: Demographic Intelligence

  18. Households & Population 2001-2011Geographical contrasts Greg Ball: Demographic Intelligence

  19. Households past & projected growth Greg Ball: Demographic Intelligence

  20. Age Changes 2001-2011 Greg Ball: Demographic Intelligence

  21. 2011 -Interim Population Projections – beware Base population updated in light of Census Unrevised migration, birth and death rates (same as 2010-based) ONS have issued health warnings Paradoxical local results :e.g. Birmingham Greg Ball: Demographic Intelligence

  22. Conclusions • Take-off in population growth since 2001 • Shift in geography of pressure to metropolitan • Population growth outstrips household growth for first time in decades • Slowdown in propensity to form households • Geographical differences in age structures Greg Ball: Demographic Intelligence

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