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Local Tech Economy, Cooperation, Broadband, Disruptive Technologies, Wealth and Jobs

Lecture 2 : in Australia for the OSDC2014 Monday, November 3, 2014. Varsity Lakes ( Wotso ), Silicon Beach Grou Sponsor: City of GOLD COAST. Local Tech Economy, Cooperation, Broadband, Disruptive Technologies, Wealth and Jobs.

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Local Tech Economy, Cooperation, Broadband, Disruptive Technologies, Wealth and Jobs

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  1. Lecture 2 : in Australia for the OSDC2014 Monday, November 3, 2014. Varsity Lakes (Wotso), Silicon Beach Grou Sponsor: City of GOLDCOAST. Local Tech Economy, Cooperation, Broadband, Disruptive Technologies, Wealth and Jobs - How to construct Weavelet Lenses for collaboration and P2P Connectivism - Ir. J.W. Jaap van Till, Professor EmeritusNetwork Infrastructures and Social Media Chief Scientist, Tildro Research, NL, Europe 30 minutes + 15 min Q&A 28 pages (cc) 2014 vantill @ gmail com

  2. (cc) 2013 vantill @ gmail com & sara @ behavioraleconomics . net

  3. Local Tech Economy, Cooperation, Broadband, Disruptive Technologies, Wealthand Jobs Abstract: by Ir. Jaap van Till, prof. emeritus telecom infrastructuresandsocialmedia • Steps beyond the Richard Florida approach toattractcreative class talent tocities • to boost the Local Tech Economy. There is an urgent demandamong the youngandbrightfor a positiveperspectivetowards the future. • Broadband Trends andFutureProofnetworkarchitectures: ExponentialGrowth, Intermediaries, disruptiveinnovations, learning curves, effects on organizations, AppsandClouds, Nokia vs Apple andotherexamples. • Whatwillcomeafter the worldwide economicrecession; a Golden Age: How, whatandwho. P2P cooperation, flocksandswarms, ICT as the General Purpose Technology. Orthogonal Engineers. • Network Age Civil Society, brainpatterns, orthogonaltransforms & correlation, hologramsand the Global Brain underconstruction. • Energy, Information, Ideas (brainwaves) must FLOW tocreatesynergyandwealth (cc) 2014 vantill @ gmail . com

  4. 6.5 billionCellph Smartphones Tablets 3 billion internet access & growing Heavy USE !!! COOPERATION (cc) 2014 vantill @ gmail

  5. DeclineandSuccess of Cities: Richard Florida found Talent & ICT Technology & Tolerance tobe the drivers forprosperity [1] The “Creative Class” flocktothosemagnetcitycentreswherevalue is createdbycombinations of skills andspecialistswho co-create. Or theyleave. But self-centeredness is a dead end. For peopleandcities the quality of theirExternalConnectionsis vital. Een ‘Kanteling in het denken’ is noodzakelijk om uit de recessie te komen.

  6. Lessonsfor Post-Industrial Economies: How Wealthand jobs are created • Douglass North, Nobel PrizeEconomy 1993 Wealth is createdby: A. A number of veryegalitarianinstitutionsthatwork well: education, infrastructure building, financefor ventures, law, etc. B. Very low micro transaction costs: trust in promisedwork. • Joel Mokyr: The Gifts of Athena- HistoricalOrigins of the Knowledge Society- Combinations (duo’s) of Enterpreneurswith a long time vision& super skilledcrafsmen (Example : Rolls-Royce, Hewlett-Packard) • JvTill: Daring : Don’taskpermission, just DO + friends Black Swans ! Audacity

  7. "Broadband Trends andPositivePerspectives on P2P Cooperation andWealthCreation" Two types of Innovation & Improvement Performance / Price SustainedInnovation DisruptiveInnovation DIY: no permissionneeded Time Source: Prof Ward Christensen. MIT (cc) 2014 vantill @ gmail com

  8. EACH TECHNOLOGICAL REVOLUTION PROPAGATES IN TWO DIFFERENT PERIODS The first half sets up the infrastructure and lets the markets pick the winnersthe second half reaps the full economic and social potential INSTALLATION DEPLOYMENT DEPLOYMENT INSTALLATION TurningPoint Creative destruction Learning the newunlearning the old A great market experiment Led byfinancialcapital Ending in a stock marketcrash “Creative construction” Led byproduction capital Applying the paradigmto innovateacross all sectorsand to spreadthe social benefitsmore widely Until maturityand exhaustion Degree of diffusion of the new technological potential Uncertainty, institutional recomposition and role shift ??? Time Next big-bang big-bang 2O - 30 years 2O - 30 years Majortechnologybubble We are here Carlota Perez [11-13]

  9. THE NEW vs. THE TRADITIONAL PARADIGM ( Perez [12] A RADICAL AND DIFFICULT SHIFT IN MANAGERIAL COMMON SENSE (part 1)

  10. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JVXy-ZqqZ-g The TwoPhases of Lightning THE NEW vs. THE TRADITIONAL PARADIGM (Perez [12])A RADICAL AND DIFFICULT SHIFT IN MANAGERIAL COMMON SENSE (part 2) Prof. Carlota Perez shows us the way out of the crises ! General Purpose Technolgy (GPT): Electro / mechanical/ chemical  ICT / Network Technology

  11. Diversity of circumstancesandscales + interconnected ( next: The Internet of Things) [Internet, + energy + goods] as a lifeform: “The Weave” MODEL(weavelets are fractal too) Whatmaythe futurelook like : Fractal repetition of the Internet paradigm, JvT 2000 corporate intraNet E-commerce FEMTOCELLS & FttX Office E-business, I-Org II LAN Field enclosed in room + POF (Planet) InterNet I Home III TV sets, IoThings Person IV N N computers (mobile) devices single use M2M: IoT MACROCELLS 3G UMTS 4GLTE Wi-Fi offloading IEEE 802.11ac, ah, ad Bluetooth SMS ZigBee .. SMALLCELLS + hotspots METROCELLS trainst, airport, Campus (cc) 2014 vantill @ gmail

  12. (cc) 2013 vantill @ gmail com & sara @ behavioraleconomics . net

  13. (cc) 2014 vantill @ gmail

  14. "Broadband Trends andPositivePerspectives on P2P Cooperation andWealthCreation" • Subsea Optical Fiber Cables , Example: PT AJN SOLUSINDO ( Par Parkiyatno ) • Optical Fiber long distancebackbones: DWDM, Lambda’s, Lightpaths switches • (“Netherlight” part of NREN SURFnet) • Internet Exchanges IX’s(AMST-IX, NDIX)- level 2 Ethernet, VLANs • Gigabit/s FTTX (busin/home/farm) – symmetric • GPON  TWDM-PON (Google, ALU + Vodaphone) • LTE 4G & Wi-Fi IEEE 802.11 ac, ah, ad, …. Small Cells ( Glass & Wireless !! ) • SIMsfrom Apple? Authentication (ExampleEduRoam) • IoThings plastic fiber & radio over fiber ROF 24 Ghz, 60 GHz within room • WhatsApp, Skype, Netflix, Youtube, iTunes (unbundling) FunctionsDIS-Intermediated Obstacles ? Computers Computers APPs Datacenters Cloud Provider Private Cloud Computer backplane /Bus 1 – 10 GbpsOptic fibers FttX Tablet Smartphone Laptop (cc) 2014 vantill @ gmail

  15. Telephonywithfixed line Cellphonewith Skype • Nokia GSM CellphoneiPhone Smartphone, Samsung, LG • Bing Google Search • Texting (SMS) WhatsApp • TV channelsYoutube, DelayTV, Netflix • Taxi companies Uber • Hotelrooms AirBNB • Production Stores Ebay, Marktplaats, Alibaba • Airlines Reservation systems + services • key: APP services & P2P sharing community whocontributeand swap • SHARING = the NEW HAVING, copying does notdeminishvalue • Primaryprocessfrominsidestooutside • Otherstryto copy the successfulafter ‘takeoff’? No way: fasterimprovements • Learning from users, extendstoproblemsolving, P2P aid (nabuur.com) • Open Source Software, Open source research, Open source education • Scarce Resource --- Abundant resource

  16. (cc) 2013 vantill @ gmail com & sara @ behavioraleconomics . net

  17. What is behind OPEN SOURCE Development Mark Cooper The U-Turn !! Inside-out and Outside-in COMMONS like Frequency bands OPEN COOPERATIVE

  18. Scarce Resources Must bedished out equaly bygovt Mark Cooper : Examples Peer-to-Peer commons P2P SHARING IS THE NEW HAVING !!! (jaap van Till) Abundance !!!

  19. How do “P2P commons” growFor fundamentalsseeP2PFoundation.net Google Search Skype Youtube InstaGram Alibaba Companies learnfast Attract the talented Experimentscanfail Improvements updates The users put in more thanthey take out (example: BitTorent) “The SUCCESS of the COMMONS”, usingit does notdiminishitsvalue Must scale up exponentialy (constant doubling time) in ICT resources etc. Sharksand Dolphins? (cc) 2014 vantill @ gmail

  20. The FORCE of COOPERATION by P2Peerialists DRIVERS BEHIND the IMPACT OF INTERNET & TELECOM : Networking Effects 1. Broadcasting of info: Value ~ growswithnumber of listeners, viewers N Sarnoff’s Law (value for the broadcaster/ advertiser/ spindoctor) 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 + ……….(N) 2. Communication V ~ N2Metcalfe’s LawN + N + N + N + N ……….(N) V~ N Log N Odlyzko -Tilly’s Law 3. Group MembershipV ~ 2NReed’s Law2 * 2 * 2 * 2 * 2 * 2 ……….(N) (+ Multi TribeMembershipbynetworking ) 4. ConnectedpeopleworkingtogetherV ~ N ! Van Till’s Lawof Synthecracy Networking Upper bound of possible combinations of contributions N ! = N * N-1 * N-2 * …..* 2 * 1 (N) Total space of cooperation = number of configurations in time/spacewheneach uniqueand diverse individualcontributesand shares resources andknowledge. [14] Examples: teams, communities of practice, multiuser games, simulationGrids, virtual labs Mashup Team, Flock, Herd, Evolution by flexible learning and Group Selection [9,10]

  21. The Telescope Metaphor: a better picture for ALL, by Synthesis • Issues: • - Complex • Non linear • Dynamic Different angles! < distance > Virtual Lens How patterns ??????? • Issues: • Simple • Linear • Static Cooperative NETWORK can scale ! Synergy Max. Size. Does not scale Earlier publication: http://www.vantill.dds.nl/democracy.html http://www.vantill.dds.nl/synthecracy.pdf (cc) 2013 vantill @ gmail com & sara @ behavioraleconomics . net

  22. The Telescope Metaphor: a better picture for ALL by network sharing of contributions on Internet, social networks Different angles ! Unique contribution < distance > --------> Resolution, pattern contrast < number of telescopic sensors> ---> pattern definition HDR CORRELATION N factorial Combinations Pattern Recognition and matching NETWORK “Network Lenses” ?? technology and groups of humans It can coordinate, inform, self organize P2P collaboration, creating value Collective intelligence ?? Array telescopes (LOFAR) Grid IT CAN SCALE UP !! Clusters HDR = High Dynamic Range in image (cc) 2013 vantill @ gmail com & sara @ behavioraleconomics . net

  23. "Broadband Trends andPositivePerspectives on P2P Cooperation andWealthCreation • OPEN forwidediversity. forsudden changes, unexpected surprises : LERNEN • ORTHOGONALISE, extract “orthogonals” from the Chaos, which are agnostictootherlayers/ parameters/ infrastructures/ Examples: containers, IP datapackets. Thisallowsandabsorbs changes in complex ecosystems. • Correlateand match. Social Networking! Match withlearnedpatterns. • AndinterconnectTribes (clusters with strong ties) by “weak link” super networkers andLERNgroups (sameKarass) who have trustedcontributors & credibility in manytribes. These links createstabilityandsynergy. This is whathappens in Twitter, byBloggers, G+ lacksthis? • Removeobstacles in complex, non lin, dynamic systems (LiebigLaw) • Maintainfreedomtoexplore, experiment, expressandcreate • Form FAST LEARNING problemsolving Teams with a P2P Commons in which the best peoplewithuniqueand proven skills, craftsandknowledge (the Orthogonals) contribute, cooperateandlearntogether : WEAVELETS • Smart ConnectedCities (Richard Florida statisticsabout the Creative Class), including 21 subsystems (energy, food, etc) for Life Support [ James Grier Miller ] ; HK !? • Next step: strings of interconnected City Area’s includingtrade routes: Cascadia, CorridoriaandthenPlanetBrain.org (cc) 2014 vantill @ gmail

  24. (cc) 2014 vantill @ gmail

  25. (cc) 2014 vantill @ gmail

  26. "Broadband Trends andPositivePerspectives on P2P Cooperation andWealthCreation • Are groups of peoplelearningandcreating in Weavelets / P2P Phylesour next evolutionary step? • Will huge clusters of fastevolvingbacteriaand/ or virusesoutpaceourmedical R&D ? • We shouldlearnfrom Nature !!! • Flocks of birds, they look togetheroutside the flock !! • Complex ecologies, link to DNA for storage andreplication of learnedlessons? • Evolutionarydynamics (Prof Martin A. Nowak: Supercooperators) • How the brainmaywork, includingwithin neurons andsynapses : Weavelets?? • Experiment with new networked P2P enterpriseorganizationstructures, likeHolacracy, • wherevalueand jobs are created • Experiment with new structuresfor Smart ConnectedCities (book Susan Crawford) • Connect farms and small ruralwithoptical fibers too • Design and introduce new viralSocial Media wherepeoplecanflockandcooperate • SUDDEN FLOW of Lightning https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JVXy-ZqqZ-g (cc) 2014 vantill @ gmail

  27. Examples of SuccessfulWorkingConstructiveWeavelets<Fiduciary trust & the Best Cratfswomen/men !> • Flashmobs • Bitcoin • Collection andaggregation of pictures andvideosafter Boston Bombing • Wikipedia, Google, Facebook, Twitter, InstaGram, Alibaba • AmberAlertNederland.nl • SelforganizingPhyles, commonsandcooperatives (see P2PFoundation.net) • New Education: MOOC’s, “learning in the digital age”. Connectivismby George Siemens and Stephen Downes (connecting the dots) see: Susan Bainbridge • Cascadia, Corridoria • Singularity.U University ventures, exponentialenterprises • The Maker Movement (3D printers lasercutters, crafsmen, schoolchildren) • BuurtZorgNederland.com • AmsterdamSmartCity.com • “ The Responsive City” –EngagingCommunities Through Data Smart Governance- Stephen Goldsmithand Susan Crawford (just out) • Next CenturyCitiesLaunch Event (Oct 2014) LocalCaliforniancitygovtsthat have built theirownNext Generation Networks (Optical Fiber infra FttH). 3 hour video on Youtube What do they have in common: nearly no hierachy, so without manylayers of management (cc) 2014 vantill @ gmail com

  28. Researchers, students, geeksand nerds : findyouruniqueskill&craft, in whichyouexcell, andwhichyoucancontribute in a fastlearning team. YouwillbeappreciatedandLERNing.

  29. ANNEXES (cc) 2013 vantill @ gmail com & sara @ behavioraleconomics . net

  30. "Broadband Trends andPositivePerspectives on P2P Cooperation andWealthCreation The Global Brain Metaphore • Will ourPlanetbecomeconscious in about 2020? • Peter Russell describedthatforeachevolutionaryleap more than 10 ^ 10 (10 Bln) must be present andinterconnected • Human foetus: first few months: braincellsreplicatebymanymillionseachday. Up toaround 100 billion. • After x monthssuddenly the neurons start to make axons, nearand far, andsynapseconnections. • Afterbirth the baby starts tolearnfastandbecomesconsciousandcommunicateswithparentsand fits to environment. Learning curves start. • There are nowabout 7 billionpeople on thisplanet, of which 6.5 have cellphoneconnectionsandabout 3.5 billion have smartphonesand Internet connectivity. Is baby Gaiaalreadykickingwhenyoungpeopleflock ?? Are we engineers wiringMotherGaia’sfuture Global Brain andwillshe wake up? I hope tobestill present whenshe does, around 2020? (cc) 2014 vantill @ gmail . Com

  31. Communication not rational Absorption of new ideas: Learning curves (discontinuous) Example: Expenditures on ICT in companies reformation pioneers Control, keep pure manage/ allocate economic: scales up standard: one is chosen as legitimate and enforced Other alternatives are suppressed pioneers Explore EXPERIMENTS avant garde Time * Several paradigms at the same time, multiple learning curves. Try to synchronise on one stage ! • The present innovators are the future conservatives, obstacles resist change and innovation

  32. (cc) 2014 vantill @ gmail

  33. What happens at the Transformed Plane? • All of the information is available there (halfway the Weavelet) to make spatial (3D) models, for handling Depth and Proportions, and temporal (time: 4D) models of movements etc. to act upon. • The patterns are distributed, stored and manipulated all over the Weavelet by multiple feedback loops in contact with the ecology around it. So collective and individual decisions and actions can be taken. Physical evidence: In optics halfway behind the lens there is the FFT Transform plane. The image is fuzzy there, while on the Focal plane it is sharp. Jumping spiders have 4 distinct photoreceptor layers in their eyes, they can judge distance to jump by processing the difference between defocused and focused layers. http://www.livescience.com/18143-jumping-spider-unique-vision.html (cc) 2014 vantill @ gmail

  34. New Organizational Paradigm : The Structure of a Weavelet Yes, it can scale up, self organize. Fast parallel pattern recognition (incomplete matching) Orthogonalisation. Correlation with learned patterns. Pluriform Diverse Distributed: Every Karass can: recommend, confirm, verify AND notice significant differences decide, act, combine, mix, create bend light, zoom in, focus, has overview, feed back DISTRIBUTED Transparent Everybody can see everything P2P Connectivity OPEN Synthesis Value creation Synergy Innovation Very resilient Contributions Fractal unfolding repetition Functions as ONE organism Group Collective Intelligence based on Cooley-Tuckeyconnections) Distributed authority, cancopewithComplexityandreactfast. (cc) 2014 vantill @ gmail

  35. Occupy Facing Sharks (cc) 2013 vantill @ gmail com & sara @ behavioraleconomics . net

  36. Summary I wishyouGoodConnections !!! (cc) 2014 vantill @ gmail

  37. Emergentbehaviour: Flocks, Swarms, Schools of fish. Teams in Fast Learning peoplein P2P Cooperation !!! (cc) 2014 vantill @ gmail

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