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Texas Demography: Change, Projections, and English Learners Lloyd Potter

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Texas Demography: Change, Projections, and English Learners Lloyd Potter. Texas Education Agency April 8, 2010. Sources of Growth. Fastest Growing States, 2000-2008. Total Population and Components of Population Change in Texas, 1950-2008. Natural Increase in Texas (Births minus Deaths).

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Texas Demography: Change, Projections, and English Learners

Lloyd Potter

Texas Education Agency

April 8, 2010

slide5
Natural Increase in Texas(Births minus Deaths)
  • Birth Rate: 16.8 per 1,000 vs. 14.0 for US (2ndhighest)
  • Death Rate: 6.8 per 1,000 vs. 8.3 for US (5thlowest)
  • Natural Increase: 10.0 per 1,000 vs. 5.7 for US (3rd highest)
  • Texas is young:
    • Median Age: 33.2 vs. 36.8 for US (2ndlowest)
  • Texas has a high total fertility rate (Children per woman)
    • 2.34 vs. 2.05 for US (4th highest)

Source: NCHS Vital Statistics Data, 2005http://wonder.cdc.gov/

slide7
Annual Net Migration to Texas, 2000 to 2008

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census 2008 Estimates

slide8
Population Growth in Texas, 2000-2040

Year

Source: Texas State Data Center 2008 Population Projections

age sex structure of texas 2008 and projected 2040 scenario 2000 2007
Age-Sex Structure of Texas, 2008 andProjected 2040 (Scenario 2000-2007)

Sources: Census Bureau 2008 Population Estimates; Texas State Data Center 2008 Population Projections

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Texas Population by Age, 2000 & 2008

Population

Age

Sources: Census Bureau 2000 Population Counts; Census Bureau 2008 Population Estimates

slide12
Texas Children by Age, 2000 and 2008

Population

Age

Sources: Census Bureau 2000 Population Counts; Census Bureau 2008 Population Estimates

slide14
Ethnicity & Immigrant Status-State of Texas, 2007

Sources: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2007 American Community Survey Microdata File

slide15
% of Growth Due to Each Ethnicity in Texas, 1980-1990, 1990-2000, 2000-2007, and 2000-2040

Source: U.S. Census Counts, and Texas State Data Center 2008 Population Projections, 0.5 Scenario

projected percent of net change attributable to each race ethnicity group for 2000 2040
Projected Percent of Net Change Attributable to Each Race/Ethnicity Group for 2000-2040*
slide17
Projected Ethnic Change in theState of Texas, 2000-2040

Source: Texas State Data Center 2008 Population Projections , 0.5 Migration Scenario

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Projected population by county, Texas, 2040

Texas State Data Center, vintage 2008 population projections. Migration scenario 2 (2000-2007).

educational attainment in 2000 in texas for persons 25 years of age by race ethnicity
Educational Attainment in 2000 in Texas for Persons 25+ Years of Age By Race/Ethnicity

Percent

percent of the population 5 and over who speak english less than well by state 2008
Percent of the population 5 and over who speak English less than well by state, 2008

Source: American Community Survey, 2008

slide27
Percent of persons aged 5 and older, who do not speak English well, that speak Spanish at home by state, 2008

Source: American Community Survey, 2008

percent of texas children 5 17 who speak a language other than english at home by county 2006 2008
Percent of Texas children 5-17 who speak a language other than English at home, by county, 2006-2008

Source: American Community Survey, 3 year file 2006-2008

percent of texas children 5 17 who speak a english less than well by county 2006 2008
Percent of Texas children 5-17 who speak a English less than well, by county, 2006-2008

Source: American Community Survey, 3 year file 2006-2008

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Major Points
  • Continued growth of Texas population
  • Growth driven by both natural increase and in-migration (internal and international)
  • Aging of the population with growing base
  • Continued growth of Hispanic population relative to other ethnic/racial groups
  • Increased concentration of population in major urbanized areas
  • Large numbers of English learning students in major urban areas and in border urban areas
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Texas State Data Center

Lloyd B. Potter, Ph.D., M.P.H

University of Texas at San Antonio

210-458-6530

[email protected]

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