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EFCC Weather Update

EFCC Weather Update. September 2012. EFCC Weather Update. September 2012. Briefing Format. Briefing Format. This Season So Far Next ~6 weeks Winter/Summer Outlook 2013. So Far…. So Far…. So Far…. Data through August 30th. So Far…. So Far…. So Far…. So Far…. So Far…. So Far….

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EFCC Weather Update

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  1. EFCC Weather Update September 2012

  2. EFCC Weather Update September 2012

  3. Briefing Format

  4. Briefing Format • This Season So Far • Next ~6 weeks • Winter/Summer Outlook 2013

  5. So Far…

  6. So Far…

  7. So Far… Data through August 30th

  8. So Far…

  9. So Far…

  10. So Far…

  11. So Far…

  12. So Far…

  13. So Far…

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  18. So Far…

  19. So Far… Cool

  20. So Far… Cool

  21. So Far… Cool Flat (Dry) Increasing (Wet)

  22. So Far…

  23. So Far…

  24. So Far…

  25. Remainder Fire Season

  26. Remainder Fire Season Temperature Sep-Oct-Nov

  27. Remainder Fire Season Precipitation Sep-Oct-Nov

  28. Tropical Pacific OceanODA “Analogs” also show a transition to “El Niño”this autumn (2008-09;1971-72; 1950-51) La Niña El Niño

  29. September 2012 Forecast Temperatures Precipitation • Warmer than normal temperatures (except along the coast). • Analog years favor near to slightly below normal precipitation.

  30. October 2012 Forecast Temperatures Precipitation • Analog years consistently favor below normal temperatures. • Analogs have more variation with regards to precipitation, so there is less confidence in the forecast for “damp” conditions.

  31. Looking Ahead: Winter/Summer El Niño La Niña

  32. Looking Ahead: Winter/Summer El Nino conditions fall and winter drifting back toward Neutral conditions spring and summer.

  33. Looking Ahead: Winter/Summer Temperature Dec-Feb- Mar

  34. Looking Ahead: Winter/Summer Precipitation Dec-Feb- Mar

  35. Looking Ahead: Winter/Summer Temperature Jun-Jul-Aug

  36. Looking Ahead: Winter/Summer Precipitation Jun-Jul-Aug

  37. Bottom Line:

  38. Bottom Line: • At this point no indication of a severe 2013 fire season.

  39. Bottom Line: • At this point no indication of a severe 2013 fire season. • El Nino winter...Neutral Spring/Summer

  40. EFCC Weather Update jlittle@odf.state.or.us

  41. EFCC Weather Update jlittle@odf.state.or.us

  42. EFCC Weather Update jlittle@odf.state.or.us

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