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Aviation Weather Center Update

Aviation Weather Center Update. Friends and Partners of Aviation Weather. Jack May, Director Aviation Weather Center All Hands October 13, 2004. Rapid Fire Update on Many Fronts. Graphical Forecast for Aviation Timeline of AWRP products Verification of IFR accuracy.

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Aviation Weather Center Update

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  1. Aviation Weather Center Update Friends and Partners of Aviation Weather Jack May, Director Aviation Weather Center All Hands October 13, 2004

  2. Rapid Fire Update on Many Fronts • Graphical Forecast for Aviation • Timeline of AWRP products • Verification of IFR accuracy. • Report Flight Plan Freezing Level for ADDS • GFA on ADDS • AWC Web Based Pireps • NWS Polygon Warnings Investigation

  3. Graphical Forecast for Aviation

  4. AWRP Products Timeline Estimates for FY2005 As of 8/9/04

  5. AWRP Products Timeline Estimates for FY2006 As of 8/9/04

  6. Accuracy of Short Term Forecasts • Improve Accuracy of short term forecasts, especially of C&V to avoid over forecasting VNR and over-dissemination of warnings.

  7. AIRMET Ceiling & Visibility Verification

  8. GFA on ADDS • Operational ADDS • NWS Budget Item for FY05 to prepare for FY06 supplemental products. • Presently under continuing resolution. No new spending.

  9. Web Pilot Reports

  10. Airline ContributorsAWC Web PIREPs

  11. Latitude/Longitude points are found at the bottom of all warnings today. NWS Polygon Warnings

  12. Polygon Advantages Polygon Eliminates Area False Alarmed

  13. One WFO Study (2004) • Over two convective seasons, issued 46 tornado warnings that covered: • 38,280 square miles • Included 595 individual towns • Utilizing the polygon approach, the polygons covered: • 10,374 square miles • Included 169 individual towns • If the polygon approach were in place: • Would have reduced our total warning area by 22,490 square miles • Would have unnecessarily warned 426 fewer towns • That's a reduction of 72%!

  14. Polygon Advantages • Shows specifically where the threat is • More accurately shows warning area on systems displaying warnings graphically • Reduction of risk area (Aviation as well as public) • Better graphical description capabilities • Wider local distribution via cell phones, PDAs, etc. • Increase NWS role in the confirmation part of the warning process • Private sector requirement for polygons • Better warning quality

  15. Aviation Weather Center • Jack May, Director • Jack.May@NOAA.gov • 816.584.7201

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