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Space Weather in NextGen: An Update

Space Weather in NextGen: An Update. April 27, 2010 Cecilia Miner NOAA/NWS/Aviation Services Branch. Overview. NextGen Background The Current State Requirements Development Space Weather Requirements Demo…the Possibilities. NextGen Background. NextGen Background.

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Space Weather in NextGen: An Update

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  1. Space Weather in NextGen: An Update April 27, 2010 Cecilia Miner NOAA/NWS/Aviation Services Branch

  2. Overview • NextGen Background • The Current State • Requirements Development • Space Weather Requirements • Demo…the Possibilities

  3. NextGen Background

  4. NextGen Background • Next-Generation Air Traffic Control System (NextGen) is a Congressionally mandated initiative to modernize the U.S. Air Transportation System in order to: • Increase capacity and reliability • Improve safety and security • Minimize the environmental impact of aviation

  5. Current State—FAA

  6. Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts; Airport Weather Warnings (WFO) Forecasts and weather support by region for aircraft after departure and prior to landing (CWSU) Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts, Airport Weather Warnings (WFO) Global/National guidance for turbulence, icing, cloud ceiling, visibility, thunderstorms, wind, volcanic ash, space weather (AWC/AAWU/HNL/SWPC) Current State—NOAA Response

  7. Current State—SWPC Response

  8. NextGen Now and Future

  9. Functional Requirements Process • JPDO chartered a multi-agency team: DOT, DOC, DoD, NASA, Industry • Functional requirements state “what” needs to be done. • Examples: • The NextGen shall forecast space conditions (e.g., solar flares, coronal mass ejections) • The NextGen shall forecast geomagnetic storm activity out through 48 hours

  10. Performance Requirements Process Portfolio • Multi-agency team formed by FAA with focus on users • Preliminary ideas used for FAA investment decisions • Much progress made since then, but performance require-ments development continues

  11. NextGen Requirements—SWPC Response* * Viereck, Murtagh, Kunches, March2010

  12. NextGen Requirements—SWPC Response • Determine time of onset of solar radiation (flare) activity • Achievable now through far-term • Based on currently available solar x-ray observations; measurements will continue on GOES (NOAA) • Determine location of geomagnetic storm activity • 80% probability now through mid-term; achievable by end-state • Current specifications based on ground-based magnetometers (USGS); higher spatial resolution (more stations) may be required

  13. NextGen Requirements—SWPC Response

  14. NextGen Requirements—SWPC Response • Forecast intensity of solar radiation (flares) 12, 24, and 36 hours in advance • 50% or less probability of achieving through far-term • Current forecasts provide probabilities of having flares of various magnitudes. Accurate prediction of the magnitude of tomorrow’s flares is not yet achievable. Current research (NOAA, NASA, NSF, DoD)

  15. Getting there…demos http://weather.aero/nnew/phase2b/

  16. Getting there…demos http://weather.aero/nnew/phase2b/

  17. Getting there…demos http://weather.aero/nnew/phase2b/

  18. Getting there…demos http://weather.aero/nnew/phase2b/

  19. Getting there…demos Could show one or more data sources here http://weather.aero/nnew/phase2b/

  20. Getting There…Demos https://wiki.ucar.edu/display/NNEWD http://weather.aero/nnew/phase2/ Data Cube Demo Application Layers Registries Data Sources Icing

  21. Getting There…Demos https://wiki.ucar.edu/display/NNEWD http://weather.aero/nnew/phase2/ Data Cube Demo Application Layers Registries Data Sources Icing

  22. Questions?

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