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Historic & Future Air Cargo Markets of Southwest Asia, India & the World. Tom Crabtree Boeing Commercial Airplanes 17 November 2006. 2005 Air Freight Growth by Major Market. World 2.0% North America -2.4% Europe – North America 1.4% Asia – North America 1.3%

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historic future air cargo markets of southwest asia india the world

Historic & Future Air Cargo Markets of Southwest Asia, India & the World

Tom Crabtree

Boeing Commercial Airplanes17 November 2006

2005 air freight growth by major market
2005 Air Freight Growth by Major Market

World 2.0%

North America -2.4%

Europe – North America 1.4%

Asia – North America 1.3%

North America - Latin America -2.6%

Europe – Asia 9.0%

Intra-Asia 6.3%

Domestic China 12.2%

slide3

Growth in Major Air Cargo Markets Was Curbed Primarily Owing to High Jet Fuel Prices

Monthly percentage of change over prior year

Average spot jet fuel price, cents per gallon

slide4

World Air Cargo Grew 3.7% for Jan – Aug 2006 Relative to Traffic Levels for Jan - Aug 2005

Annualized Air Cargo Growth by Regional Market

-3.5%

3.3%

6.9%

3.8%

3.5%

-1.7%

3.4%

4.7%

1.1%

World

Year-Over Comparison

Jan.- Aug. 2006 vs. Jan.- Aug. 2005: 3.7%

Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce, AAPA, AEA, ATA and the Boeing World Cargo Forecast.

scheduled international indian air cargo traffic expanded 7 7 per year from 2000 to 2005
Scheduled International Indian Air Cargo Traffic Expanded 7.7% per Year From 2000 to 2005

Metric tons (tonnes) enplaned, thousands

Financial Year

Source: Statistical Division of the Director General of Civil Aviation, India

europe far east asia and the middle east comprise the three largest scheduled cargo traffic flows
Europe, Far East Asia and the Middle East Comprise the Three Largest Scheduled Cargo Traffic Flows

Metric tons (tonnes) enplaned, thousands & historic five-year growth rate, percentage

Europe to India: 105.5 / 4.1%

India to Europe : 156.2 / 3.5%

India to Far East Asia: 91.9 / 9.7%

Far East Asia to India: 111.6 / 16.7%

Middle East to India: 46.2 / 13%

India to the Middle East: 156.4 / 6.8%

Note: Non-Scheduled (charter) and sea-air traffic NOT included.

Source: Statistical Division of the Director General of Civil Aviation, India, Financial Year 2004-2005 data

slide8

Tonnes, thousands

Forecast

History

Average annual growth,

2005 to 2025

High 10.0%

Base 9.1%

Low 8.1%

High

Base

Low

12.5% growth per year

Domestic Indian Air Cargo Traffic Will Rapidly Expand at 9.1% per Year, Albeit from a Small Base

The size of the Indian domestic air freight market in 2005 was estimated to be 265,000 tonnes. Leading air domestic air freight airports in terms of tonnage were:

Mumbai: 140,800

Delhi: 109,600

Banglore: 53,600

Kolkata: 41,100

Chennai: 37,900

slide9

High

Base

Low

World Air Cargo Traffic Will Triple Over the Next 20 Years

RTKs, billions

History

Forecast

Average annual growth, 2005 to 2025

High 6.9%

Base 6.1%

Low 5.3%

5.1% growth per year

asia s cargo markets will continue to lead industry growth
Asia’s Cargo Markets Will Continue to Lead Industry Growth…

World Average, 6.1%

Growth, percentage

and increase their share of world cargo
… and Increase Their Share of World Cargo

Share of world total market, RTKs percentage

Europe-Asia

Europe - North America

Latin America-Europe

Europe - Africa

Intra-Europe

Domestic China

slide13

Freighter Fleet Is Grouped Into Size Categories

Standard-body

(< 45 tonnes)

Medium widebody

(40 - 75 tonnes)

Large

(> 75 tonnes)

767* DC-10-10

A300* A330

A310* A350

L-1011 787

DC-10-30/40

MD-11

A340

777

747*

A380

BAe-146 707-320C

DC-9* DC-8*

737* 757-200

727* MD-80/-90

A320*

* Represents a series

widebody freighters dominate the future fleet
Widebody Freighters Dominate the Future Fleet

Standard-body (<45 tonnes)

Medium Widebody (40-75 tonnes)

Large (>75 tonnes)

2025

2005

1,789 freighters

3,563 freighters

the percentage of new to converted freighters added to the fleet varies by size category
The Percentage of New to Converted Freighters Added to the Fleet Varies by Size Category

Standard-body (<45 tonnes)

Medium widebody (40-75 tonnes)

Large (>75 tonnes)

522

new

Large

1,002 total

480

converted

244

new

1,140

converted

Standard-body

1,140 total

597

converted

Medium Widebody

841 Total

Total 2983 Units

(2,217 Converted, 766 New)

slide16

While North America Predominates in Total Freighter Deliveries, Asia Will Receive the Most Large Freighters

Number of airplanes

* Includes Southwest Asia

slide18

While growth has been hesitant in 2005 and 2006, world air cargo traffic levels will triple over the next two decades.

Markets connected to Southwest Asia will expand at roughly 6% to 6.5% per year; domestic India will expand 9.1% per year through 2025.

The world freighter fleet will nearly double to 3563 aircraft by 2025, led primarily by widebodies.

Historic & Future Air Cargo Markets of Southwest Asia, India & the World Summary