Country Presentation of Bangladesh on • Prepared By • Abul Kalam Azad, Deputy Director & • Mohammad Shaheen, Deputy Director • Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics National Practices of Compilation of National Accounts Statistic
Outline of the Presentation • Background and Current Situation • Measurement of GDP • Quarterly National Accounts • Methodology and data sources • Limitations and challenges • Plans for SNA 1993/2008 • Required Technical Assistance
Background and Current Situation: • Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) is the National Statistical Office of the Government of Bangladesh and provides official statistics under the policy guidance of the Ministry of Planning through Planning Division and participates in policy monitoring and evaluation through various inter-ministerial and inter-agency committees. • The BBS being the centralized data producing agency of the Government, is entrusted with the responsibility of collecting, collating and disseminating statistical data required for socio-economic management and development activities of the Government. • In august 1975 Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics was re-organized and set up as an integrated National Statistical Organization.
Measurement of GDP • The national accounts of Bangladesh are compiled by the National Accounting Wing of the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics since independence of Bangladesh. • The estimates are based on the concept, definition, classification and methodology of the best practice document “1993 System of National Accounts”. • GDP by production approach is based on value added by industrial activity. Value added is calculated as gross output less intermediate consumption . • GDP by expenditure category is calculated as the sum of the final use of goods and services through final consumption, capital formation and export less imports.
Measurement of GDP • GDP estimates at producer price/market price (base year 1995-96) following SNA-93 • Difficulties in measuring growth or changes in output over a period of time when there is more than one base year. • BBS compiled a consistent time series of national accounts aggregates of the old series (1984-85 base) linked with the new series (1995-96 base ) up to 1980-81. • Estimation of major national accounts aggregates (GDP, GNI, consumption, Investment, Savings etc.) • 1972-73 to 1983-84 (SNA68), 1984-85(rebasing), 1995-96 (revision and rebasing(SNA93)
Quarterly National Accounts • BBS does not compile QNA • On experimental basis BBS compiled an historic series of QGDP for 7 years a total of 28 quarters starting from 1995 to 2002 • This exercise was done for the national accounts compilers to be acquainted with the methodology and concept of QGDP and also to asses further requirement of data for compiling QGDP • Adequate and timely data flow is not available
Methodology and Data Sources: • Agriculture and forestry Sector • Crops and Horticulture: • Data on production volume of about 100 crops, representing 100 percent of total crop output, are taken from Agriculture wing of BBS. • For tea, cotton, and rubber, data are taken from the respective development boards. • The value-added estimates for crops are based on gross production less intermediate consumption or production inputs.
Methodology and Data Sources: • Agriculture and forestry Sector • Crops and Horticulture: • Crop wise harvest prices are obtained from the Director of Agricultural marketing. • A fixed ratio is applied for obtaining the input costs which is based on the survey of the use of Inputs in major Agriculture Crops by BBS. • Information of gross output and input costs for horticulture have been collected by the sub district statistical Offices of BBS through field survey.
Methodology and Data Sources: • Agriculture and forestry Sector • Animal Farming: • Agriculture censuses 1983-84 and 1996 as benchmark • Extrapolated by the survey of livestock and poultry of 1996/2005. • Animal farming include (i) Meat (ii) Milk, (iii) Hides and skin (iv) Cow dung, (v) Animal fats and others (vi) Poultry birds and eggs • Prices used for valuation of these products are collected from DAM. • On an average 26.6% of the value of output is deducted as IC to obtain the GVA of this sub-sector.
Methodology and Data Sources: • Agriculture and forestry Sector • Forest and related services: • Private forestry output is based on a benchmark production estimates based on the 1996 census of Agriculture and extrapolated annually using the production volume of crops as an proxy indicator, the estimates are validated by periodic survey of farm forest and household expenditure survey. • Technical co-efficient derived from Input-Output table for 1993-94 are used to estimate Gross Value added.
Methodology and Data Sources: 2. Fishing: • The activities in the fishing sector include • commercial fishing in high sea, coastal and offshore waters and catching and gathering fish from inland rivers, canals, lakes, haors, bills, ponds etc. and subsistence fishing in inland waters. • The gross value added of this sector is estimated by applying the production approach. This involves estimation of the total value of output in producer value and deducting there from inputs ( in purchasers’ prices).
Methodology and Data Sources : 2. Fishing: • Data on fishery production are taken from the Directorate of Fisheries and the data is validated by results of HIES and foreign trade statistics. • Prices by species types are obtained from the Directorate of Agriculture Marketing (DAM). • Base years price is used for revaluation
Methodology and Data Sources : 3. Mining and Quarrying Sector: • The activities of this sector include extraction of natural gas and production of limestone, white clay, stones and boulders, sands and crude salt production. • Basic data (production, intermediate input and prices) for mining and quarrying of natural gas, limestone and white clay are taken from state corporation engaged in the activity; • output of sand and gravel are indirectly estimated as a fixed ratio of cement, other product of quarrying are collected by BBS through survey. • Data obtained from BCIC, Regional office of BBS, Petrobangla
Methodology and Data Sources : 4. Manufacturing • Estimate of gross value added of large manufacturing ( 10 or over employed persons) enterprises , which represent around 70 percent of total manufacturing value added is based on BBS Census of Manufacturing Industries ( CMI) as benchmark, • Estimates are extrapolated based on quantum index of industrial production compiled monthly by BBS. • PPI (Mfg.) is used for revaluation • Data Sources: CMI Report, CIPS of BBS & BSCIC report
Methodology and Data Sources : 4. Manufacturing • Value added estimate of small scale industry is mainly based on 1991 census of small scale cottage industries conducted by BSCIC. As the BSCIC census did not cover handloom sub-sector, for estimating aggregate value added from the small scale manufacturing estimates, BBS handloom census are taken into account, the bench mark estimates are then extrapolated. • The non-farm economic activities reports of BBS and QIIP of small industries of BBS are other source of small scale industry.
Methodology and Data Sources : 5. Electricity, Gas, and Water: • Basic data for direct estimates of gross value added of these sectors are taken from government enterprises and local governments providing the services. • Electricity, gas, and water price indices are used to obtain value added at constant prices. • Data Sources: PDB, REB, DESA, WASA, Petrobangla
Methodology and Data Sources : 6. Construction: • Gross value of construction is derived from the commodity flow of main construction materials such as cement, iron and steel. • Coefficient of construction activity in the input-output table provides the parameter for estimating gross value added. • Building material price index compiled by BBS is used as deflator.
Methodology and Data Sources : 7. Wholesale and retail trade: • Commodity flow of domestically produced goods and imports is used for trade sector. This sector covers only whole sale and retail trade services. • The trade margin is treated as gross output of this sector and 8.36% of the values are taken as intermediate consumption.
Methodology and Data Sources : 7. Wholesale and retail trade: • Trade margin is derived annually from special studies and expert opinion. • Value added ratios, taken from the BBS annual integrated survey of non-farm economic activities and input-out-put table, are multiplied to the estimated value of trade margins to derive gross value added. • WPI (all group) used for revaluation • Data sources: Bangladesh Bank, BBS
Methodology and Data Sources : 8. Transport, Storage and Communication: • Transport data are derived into air, land and water, differentiated into public and private sector. • Data on public sector including Bangladesh Biman are taken from financial statement and balance sheet of government corporations engaged in these services. • Gross value added for private transport is derived on the basis of numbers of vehicles registered with the relevant government units multiplied by a fixed value added per vehicle estimated from periodic surveys or special studies.
Methodology and Data Sources : 8. Transport, Storage and Communication: • Price index on fare and fright are used to inflate the estimate to current price. • Communication sub-sector includes activities of Bangladesh Post Office and Bangladesh Telephone and Telegraph Board. • Out put is based on total receipts for the services rendered. Deducting intermediate consumption from the output, the value added is obtained. • Privately owned communication such as mobile phone, fax, and courier services are also included as far as data is available.
Methodology and Data Sources : 8. Transport, Storage and Communication: • Storage sub-sector is divided into urban and rural storage. the data source for urban storages is the cold storage association. • Storage capacity on rural areas is estimated with the help of the benchmark data obtained from the agriculture censuses and is validated by the survey on private storage. • Deflated by House Rent Index (HRI) to obtain the value added at constant prices.
Methodology and Data Sources : 9. Hotel and restaurant services: • Output of this sector is estimated from the • Annual Integrated survey of Non-farm economic activities, 1989-90, • Report on Annual Establishment and Institution Survey 1992-93 and also survey findings of the • Report on Survey of Selected Economic Activities 1995-96. • The output of hotels and restaurants is measured by the service which is the value of the sale receipts net of food costs plus receipts from other services rendered, rentals, etc.
Methodology and Data Sources : 10. Financial Intermediation (a) Banking: • Value added of this sector is measured through production method. • Net interest receipt plus actual service charges (rental income, commission and other fees) are added up to obtain the value of gross output. • Intermediate consumption is subtracted to have the value added of this sector.
Methodology and Data Sources : 10. Financial Intermediation (a) Banking: • Annual financial statements available from public and private banks provide the basic data for direct estimate of gross value added for banking. • Stock Exchange provides financial auxiliary services in the economy. • Values added from Stock exchanges are also taken into account. Estimates excludes small and other informal units engaged in intermediation services and non-government institutions engaged in small deposits and lending operations.
Methodology and Data Sources : 10. Financial Intermediation (b) Insurance: • The value of output in Insurance sub-sector comprises net retained premium, investment income, re-insurance income as well as services rendered by insurance agents, brokers etc. • Intermediate consumption is subtracted to get the value added. • Annual reports of the concerned insurance companies are the sources of the data.
Methodology and Data Sources : 11. Real state, Renting and Business activities: • Production approach is used. Number of own occupied dwelling by urban and rural areas are obtained from the population census which is used as bench mark data. • Average annual house rent (as per HES) is applied to provide estimate of gross output. • Maintenance cost is treated as intermediate consumption. Owner-occupied dwellings’ out-put is valued as the estimated rentals that tenants would pay for similar accommodation.
Methodology and Data Sources : 12. Public administration: • Budget and actual government expenditure of central and local government serve as the basis for estimation of gross value added; data on central government are taken from the Ministry of Finance while those of the local government are based on annual questionnaire distributed to the local government units by the BBS. Wages and salaries are considered as value added of this sector.
Methodology and Data Sources : 13. Education : • The estimate are prepared both for government and privately managed educational institutions and education related activities. • For public institutions, gross value added is taken to be the same as the total wages and salaries of teachers and other non –academic staff employed in educational institutions. • Data public portion are obtained from Government budget/ expenditure on wages and salaries of educational personnel.
Methodology and Data Sources : 13. Education : • The data for private educational services are estimated from the report of the survey on Private Education Services in Bangladesh, population census, Labour force survey and Annual integrated survey on Non-farm Economic activities. • Current estimates are obtained by using consumer price index (CPI, Govt. employee, Data generation group)
Methodology and Data Sources : 14. Health and Social work: • For Public health sector, gross value added is taken as equivalent to the budget expenditure on wages and salaries of the doctors and other medical and non-medical staff. • Survey of private health services 1997-98 provides benchmark information on CE, IC, CFC and Os. • Benchmark estimates of incomes of the medical professionals (those are in private practices) are taken into account for estimation of value added of this sector.
Methodology and Data Sources : 15. Community, Social and Personal Service Sector: • Net earning per person of the benchmark year is multiplied by the number of professional or miscellaneous services personnel to arrive value added at constant prices of that particular group. • Value added of all the groups are summed up to obtain total value added of this sector. • Current price estimates are obtained by inflating constant price estimate using wage rate index.
Limitations & Challenges • For compilation of GDP by production method, there are various types of limitations in respect of data coverage and methodology (prices, input, output technical coefficients/ mark-ups etc.) • Appropriate price deflators – CPI, WPI, WRI, FFI etc. • Lack of timely data • Required surveys are not regular • Men power shortage • Insufficient fund
Plans for 1993/2008 SNA • Since 1995-96 GDP estimates following SNA-93 • Not yet planning for SNA 2008 • Regularly compiled Production account and Expenditure based GDP
Required technical assistance • Consultation services • Assistance for various surveys on the areas lacking data, for example data on tourism sector, different service sectors like private health, private education and so on • Training