Quantifying Risk – How hard can it be?. Mark Swabey Managing Director Risk Reasoning Ltd. The Challenges. “What contingency do we need to include in our bid?” “What’s our exposure?” “Do we really need to take that action?” “I’ve got to spend that money, even if the risk doesn’t happen?!?!”
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Risk Reasoning Ltd
Limiting Actions reduce the impact of the risk - pushes risk down
Psychological trick: In western
cultures, we concentrate first
on top left, since we read like that,
so area to concentrate upon is top left.
Preventative Actions reduce
the chance of risk occurring -
pushes risk to right
RiskTaking more than one an action into account
Risks - No Actions
Risks with Actions
Reducing uncertainty, surely a risk management objective?
What is the chance of us being right?
Bell Curves? Standard Deviations? Distributions?
How many people really understand them?
Impact uncertainty increased
due to uncertainty of
effectiveness of Limiting
Add the fuzzy sets to give:
All illustrations used in this workshop generated by our products, collaborative risk management environments which use these principles.
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Supporting best practice risk management
by normal people