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The Power Sector in the Russian Far East: Recent Status and Plans

The Power Sector in the Russian Far East: Recent Status and Plans. Ruslan GULIDOV Economic Research Institute, FEB, RAS Alexander OGNEV Vostokenergo – Far Eastern Branch of “InterRAO”. 2007 Asian Energy Security Project Meeting

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The Power Sector in the Russian Far East: Recent Status and Plans

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  1. The Power Sector in the Russian Far East: Recent Status and Plans Ruslan GULIDOV Economic Research Institute, FEB, RAS Alexander OGNEV Vostokenergo – Far Eastern Branch of “InterRAO” 2007 Asian Energy Security Project Meeting “Energy Futures and Energy Cooperation in the Northeast Asia Region” Tsinghua University, China October 31 – November 2, 2007

  2. Outline • Restructuring Program in Russia • Particular Features of Electricity Restructuring in the Russian Far East • Electricity Demand & Supply Trends in the Region • Electricity Export Projects: Status and Prospects • Russia’s and the RFE Nuclear Status and Plans in Brief

  3. Electric Power Restructuring in Russia • Decision on Completion of Electric Power Restructuring was adopted by Government and Stakeholders (October 2007) • Vertically-Integrated System of Electricity Supply has been already divided into competitive (generation, sale) and monopolistic (transmission, dispatching) sectors • National Power Company – RAO UES of Russia – will be finally restructured and liquidated by July 2008 • Governmental control will be keeping on Federal Grid company, Central Dispatching company, Hydro-OGK, Rosenergoatom (nuclear) and some other entities

  4. RFE’s Features • Vast territory (~7 mln sq. km), uneven economic development, low population (6.3 mln) • No economic and technical opportunities to have unified power grid (UPG) in the region • UPG operates only within the Southern part of the Russian Far East

  5. Particular Features of RFE’s Electricity Restructuring • After discussions it has been recognized that there is no conditions for electric power competition in the RFE (at least) during transition period to the electricity market • Duration of transition period is keeping uncertain • Two types of electricity market are currently in operation in the RFE • Single Producer is in remote, separate districts in northern areas • Single Buyer market is in UPG zone • Decision made that all operating companies (including generation and sale) are kept under the federal government control (52% and more) for a while • Electricity export contracts and development of export infrastructure have been appointed to national single operator – “InterRAO” Close Corporation

  6. Electricity Supply & Demand Trends and Plans • Positive dynamics of economic activity (4.6% p.a. over 2000-2006) • Low growth rate of electricity consumption (4.3% totally in 2000-2006) • Electric power generation capacities are increasing – 4th unit at Khabarovskya CHP-3 (180 MW, Dec.2006), 5th and 6th units at Bureyskaya HPP (670 MW, June & Oct. 2007) were commissioned – Blagoveschenskaya CHP, Komsomol’skaya CHP-3,Khabarovskaya CHP-2 to be expanded – New TPPs in Sov.Gavan’ (Khabarovskiy Krai) and in the south of Primorskiy Krai to be constructed • Shifting in primary energy production mix – Khabarovskaya CHP-1, Khabarovskaya CHP-2 и Nikolaevskaya CHP to be switched to natural gas • Network strengthening in the Southern part of the RFE • Investments in power grid totaled $0.9 bln over 2001-2006 • Investment programs approved in fuel-fired electricity generation and transmission lines ~ $3.8 bln over 2008-2015

  7. Elect. consumption in Russia and the RFE: overview and outlook Russian Federation Max Path: 2006-2010 – 6.0%, 2011-2015 – 4.9%, 2016-2020 – 4.6% Base Path: 2006-2010 – 4.9%, 2011-2015 – 3.6%, 2016-2020– 3.7% Bln kWh The Russian Far East Max Path: 2006-2010 – 3.8%, 2011-2015 –7.7%, 2016-2020 – 9.0% Base Path: 2006-2010 – 2.4%, 2011-2015 – 4.2%, 2016-2020– 6.5% Bln kWh

  8. Capacity Additions in the RFE: Base Scenario Source: General Plan for Electric Power Industry up to 2020

  9. Installed Capacity and Production Structure by Feedstock (Base Scenario) 34.2 % 51.5 % 1.7 % 12.6 % Installed Capacity 2006 2020 GW 0.05 0.7 NPPs 32.5 % 36.8 % 4.0 8.7 44.5 % 51.3 % HPPs 6.3 10.4 TPPs (coal) 0.4 % 15.8 % 2.0 3.7 2.9 % TPPs (gas) 15.8 % 12.3 23.5 Production 2020 2006 Bln kWh 0.1 1.7 NPPs 32.6 % 13.1 33.5 HPPs 56.2 % 50.4 22.6 TPPs (coal) 10.9 % 12.3 4.4 0.3% TPPs (gas) 40.2 97.9

  10. Electricity Border Trade with China • Three inter-state power transmission lines (110-220kV) currently exists to supply electricity from the RFE (Amurskaya Oblast) to Northeast China (as of 2006 – 0.5 bln kWh) • In 2003 Russian “InterRAO” and Chinese "Sirius" signed a Framework Agreement on electricity supplies of 13 billion kWh over 2004-2013 • Border trade has a history of 12 years but are so far controversial issue • export contracts does not include short and long-term “price formula” • contract duration is one year, once a year finished a new one-year contract to be concluded • an export price used to be lower than that for domestic consumers • Since February 2007 China – Russia border trade has been suspended due to electricity price disagreements

  11. Large-Scale Electricity Export from Russia to China • In November 2006 Joint Pre-Feasibility Study of the project of large-scale electric supply from Eastern Russia to China was prepared. Capital costs ~ $18 bln. Phases are • 2008-2012 – the expansion of the frontier electricity trade by 3.6-4.5 bln kWh annually (a 500 kV line will be built to Heilongjiang) • 2012-2015 – two coal-fired TPP (totally 3.6 GW) to be commissioned in the RFE so that to expand annual electricity export up to 22.5 bln kWh (a 500 kV line will be built to Liaoning) • After 2015 – to build coal-fired 7.2 GW in the RFE and Eastern Siberia so that to enlarge annual export up to 60.0 bln kWh (a 800 kV line will be built to Beijing area) • In November 2006 the contract for deliveries in the frame of the 1st stage of the project was signed

  12. Large-Scale Electricity Export from Russia to China Notation Conventions Thermal Power Plant DC Power Line AC Power Line AC/ DC Converter

  13. Prospects for DPRK – Russia Electricity Trade: Background • ROK – DPRK – RFE electricity interconnections were being under discussions at various levels in 2001-2004 • Project profile considered was as follows • construction of 500kV AC Transmission Line Vladivostok - Ch’ongiin (~$200 mln) • DC Transmission Line ± 500-600 kV Vladivostok – Seoul • Due to some political and economic reasons the discussions was suspended Russia – DPRK 500 kV transmission line suggested, 380 km Cho’ngiin Extension to the border with ROK 900 km, 500-600 kV

  14. Prospects for DPRK – Russia Electricity Trade: Current Status • Since 2007 favorable conditions are being emerged to recover RFE – DPRK interconnection project • APEC 2012 Summit in Vladivostok will require the construction of generation and transmission facilities (TPP, SS, TL) • new electricity demand aroused in the area of DPRK – Russia border • DPRK – RFE railroad section planned • two ports of Primorskiy Krai (Pos’et and Zarubino) applied for more power to consume • crude oil export terminal project and expansion of seaport in RaSon FEZ • Political support of the project from DPRK – Russia Intergovernmental Commission (4th Meeting in Moscow, March 19-23, 2007) • Real prospects of electricity demand and political conditions make RFE – DPRK interconnection project commercially viable

  15. Russia: 10 NPPs, 31 power units with total capacity of 23,2 GW (11% that of Russia), electricity production of 154.8 bln kWh (16% that of Russia), 5% of nuclear energy fraction in Russia’s TPES (as of 2006) 15 PWR (9 VVER-1000 & 6 VVER-440) 15 Channel Boiling Reactors (11 RMBK-1000 & 4 EGP-6) 1 Fast Neutron Reactor BN-600 Russia’s Nuclear Power Sector The Russian Far East:Bilibinskaya NPP 4x12 MW, 138.4 thous. kWh & 130.8 Gcal

  16. Single small Russia’s NPP of public utility Provides ~30% of electricity & heat supplies in Chukotka, ~0.4 % of those in the RFE Actual Capacity Factor 32.5%, MCF ~ 79% 4 EGP-12 reactors (G-I) were commissioned over 1974-1976 Bilibinskaya NPP – CHP • Lifetime period of the units as designed had to be completed in 2004-2006 • After auditing the lifetime period was prolonged up to 2009/2010/2016 (subject to unit) • Based on the Federal Program on Nuclear Energy Sector Development up to 2015 it is scheduled to decommission BNPP over 2019-2021

  17. 58.8 53.1 24.87 19.12 37.9 26.7 11.08 23.3 2.07 Installed Capacity (GW) Base Case 3.7 Max Case 2006-2010 2011-2015 2016-2020 2015 2006 2010 2020 Base Case +28.6 +32.3 GW Expansion +38.0 GW –3.7 GW Decommissioning –3.7 GW Max Case +34.3 Outlook for Nuclear Energy Development in Russia Expansion and Decommissioning Projections Nuclear Generation Projection Source: General Plan for Electric Power Industry up to 2020 Note: All projections are based on Rosenergoatom Company capabilities

  18. Nuclear Energy Development in the RFE: Background • In 1980s, early 1990s a range of projects and intentions to site some NPPs in the Russia’s Far East was under discussion • Nuclear Energy Inland Area in Primorskiy Krai (2 NPPs of firstly 1.28 then 2.56 GW each and NPP-CHP of 1.28 GW = 6.4 GW as combined) • Nuclear Energy Coastal Area in Primorskiy Krai (NPP of firstly 1.28 GW, then 2.56 GW as well as 2 NPPs of 2.56 GW each = 11.52 GW) • Nuclear Energy Area in Khabarovskiy Krai (NPP of 2.56 GW each and NPP-CHP of 1.28 GW = 3.84 GW as combined) • Sitting Small Floating NPPs in many territories of North, Northeast Russia • In reality only two NPP was under consideration • The Feasibility Study was done for Far Eastern NPP (Khabarovskiy Krai) with 2.56 GW (4 VVER -640) (1994) • The Pre-Feasibility Study was done for Primorskaya NPP with 2.56 GW (4 VVER-640) (1996)

  19. Nuclear Energy Development in the RFE: Current Status • Based on General Plan for Electric Power Industry up to 2020 it is planned to construct two NPPs in the RFE over 2016-2020 • Pevekskaya Floating NPP with 70 MW (KLT-40S) to replace Bilibinskaya NPP in Chukotskiy Autonomous Okrug • Primorskaya NPP with 600 MW (2 x VBER-300) to meet the increase in domestic power & electricity demand • Primorskaya NPP could be constructed by IPP to supply New aluminum plant planned in Primorskiy Krai • Up to 2016 in Russia it is planned to produce 7 KLT floating reactors. Probably more than one of them will be sited in the Northern territories of the RFE

  20. Thank you for attention! Dr. Ruslan Gulidov, Economic Research Institute, FEB, RAS Khabarovsk, Russia gulidov@ecrin.ru Dr. Alexavder Ognev Vostokenergo – Far Eastern Branch, “InterRAO” Close Corporation oay1@mail.ru

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