Brief to the COPC 21 Oct 2009

1. Brief to the COPC21 Oct 2009 Fred Toepfer, PM Dave McCarren, Deputy PM

2. Agenda • Background • NUOPC Status Review • Executive Steering Group Update • HFIP Demonstration • Tri-Agency Luncheon Review • HFIP Demonstration • Next-Steps • Request to COPC for UEO Committee merger with COPC JAGs

3. BackgroundNUOPC Purpose and Motivation • The NUOPC partnership exists to enable an enhanced National Global Prediction System • Agencies coordinate R&D investments in advanced prediction technology • Each Agency leverages the total US investment through aligned policies and procedures • Coordinated operation and use of joint system capability • Accelerated advancement of US atmospheric prediction capability • Leverage the broader US R&D investment • NOAA-Navy Investments benefit broader needs

4. BackgroundNUOPC Vision (2015) • AF, Navy, and NOAA partnership to address common operational global NWP needs • National NWP system with interoperable components built on common standards and framework (ESMF) • Managed operational ensemble diversity • Joint ensemble • Most probable forecast -- e.g. high impact weather • Mission Specific ensemble products • National global NWP research agenda to accelerate science and technology infusion

5. BackgroundApproach • Common global modeling architecture • To achieve necessary • Operating efficiencies • Interoperability • Enable benefits of partnership • ESMF-based • Multi-component system • Multiple system realizations used operationally to generate ensembles • Managed diversity in components to represent sources of forecast error • Products will address mission needs for • Hurricane storm track and intensity • Severe weather (for all agencies) • Ensembles used across all agencies to • Define most likely forecast • Quantify uncertainty • Common ensemble-based post-processing algorithms will be explored

6. ESG Update • Reviewed Phase I Progress • Committee Recommendations • Stretch goals • Reviewed Proposed Phase II Activities • Reviewed Phase II Funding Requirements • ESG Approved moving to Phase II • Reviewed NUOPC management

7. ESG Status ReviewCommon Model Architecture CommitteeChair: Scott Sandgathe Recommendations: Adopt software interoperability standards Adopt Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF) as operational coupling mechanism Standardize ESMF implementation and provide user support and training Establish permanent committees to manage interoperability of legacy and future systems

8. ESG Status ReviewUnified Ensemble Operations CommitteeChair: Mike Clancy Recommendations: Establish- Ensemble configuration & post-processing Network Operations and Information Assurance safeguards Ensemble user training Working groups to coordinate

9. ESG Status ReviewTechnology Transition Processes CommitteeChair: Maj Marc Hidalgo Recommendations: Establish- Committee to manage tech transfer National research agenda Fellowship Program Research Transition Facility (RTF) Visiting Scientist Program Common configuration management system for technology transition processes Metrics program

10. ESG Status ReviewNUOPC Phase II Budget Assumptions Coordinated science and technology infusion initiative NUOPC costs are those that implement the partnership (ie. ESMF, common interoperability standards, coordinated research agenda) Costs for upgrade to individual center capabilities should be in agency FYDP’s R&D costs to come from focusing existing funds and new initiatives

11. ESG Status ReviewProposed Costs FY ‘10 CMA 1,040,000 NUOPC Architecture and Infrastructure UEO 620,000 Joint Development and Operations TTP 350,000 Develop R&D Strategy and Committee Costs Management & Overhead 1,140,000 Total 3,150,000 Recommended Funding by Agency NOAA $1,400,000 Navy $1,400,000 Air Force $ 350,000 Total $3,150,000

12. ESMF Status ReviewProposed ESMF Support Strategy FTE National Climate Modeling Community 8.75 = 59% National Weather Modeling Community 6 = 41% Total 14.75

13. ESG Status ReviewNUOPC Activity Management NUOPC Executive Steering Group OFCM Add ONR to ESG NASA and NSF invited observers (AFW) & (AFWA) (N84) & (CNMOC) (NWS) & (OAR) Common Operational Needs A g e n c y t a s k i n g Centers Recommendations Oversight & Tasking NCEP FNMOC Coordination ESG Executive Agent NUOPC Management PM/DPM NUOPC Advisory Board AFWA Advisory R & D R e q u i r e m e n t s

14. Tri-Agency LuncheonOctober 2, 2009 • NUOPC was the focus of the Brief – Briefing provided as part of Backup • Discussion Topics included: • Sensor losses and how this impacts mission • “Battlespace on Demand” as a driver for the capabilities need in next-generation modeling systems • Overview of AF mission and current efforts to rebuild Iraqi weather infrastructure • NextGen Overview presented by Mark Andrews of JPDO

15. HFIP Demonstration

16. HFIP DemonstrationSome Interesting Results

17. Next StepsPrimary FY10 Tasks Establish Phase II MOA Charter NUOPC Advisory Board Develop National R&D Agenda for Global NWP Monitor Progress on Agency Stretch Goals NAEFS Implementation Activities Establish Standing Committees Committee Activities Evolve NUOPC Software Standards along with their adoption Continue Defining Common Model Architecture –extend NEMS as a National CMA prototype Address ESG Action Items

18. NUOPC Advisory Board • Advisory Board Proposal: • Permission requested from the ESG to define an advisory board and establish its charter. • Agreed that recommendation for approval related to the long-term management structure will be modified in accordance with redefining the roles of the NUOPC ESG, OFCM, and COPC. • It is OFCM’s desire to help, and OFCM is willing to entertain suggestions for what role is appropriate

19. Next StepsNational NWP R&D Agenda Work with tri-agency liaisons for input on: • operational requirements/needs • input on R&D agenda • summary of ongoing work • planned or unfunded future work Meeting at AMS for invited HQ, ops and R&D reps - develop draft Feb ’10 release outline of R&D Agenda June ’10 - release initial draft of document

20. Next StepsMonitor Stretch Goals Ensemble-based Ceiling & Visibility Products (AFWA) Status: In progress, funded by AF Weather What’s Been Developed Thus Far Experimental JEFS Products Visibility Cloud Cover (working on CIG algorithm) Operational GEFS & GEM and WRF-based DCF Products Cloud Top Height Cloud Cover 3 to7 Day TC Track and Intensity Guidance (NOAA) Deliver 3 – 7 day probabilistic hurricane track guidance. Deliver 6 – 7 day probabilistic hurricane intensity guidance. Status: In progress, funded through HFIP Joint Wind-Seas Product (Navy) Deliver wind-seas probability product and forecast sensitivity guidance based on GFS/NOGAPS/WW3 ensembles. Status: Funded by PMW120. OPDEMO end FY09/Q1FY10

21. Next StepsEstablish Standing Committees • Join function of Unified Ensemble Production panel into COPC OCM JAG • Join function of Information Assurance & Network Operations panel into COPC CCM JAG • Establish NUOPC advisory board (with COPC membership) • 3 Standing Committees • Common Model Architecture • Content Standards Committee - as part of ESMF management • Technology Transition Process

22. NUOPC/COPC JAGs • IA and Network Operations Working Group/Panel - active from 1QFY10 to 1QFY16. Desired expertise would include IA, network operations, and software development. The major activities that this working group/panel would be engaged in include: • Liaison with the COPC Joint Action Group for Centralized Communications Management (JAG/CCM) on the enterprise-to enterprise network • Establishment of the Super Office of the Designated Approving Authority (ODAA) • Coordinating needed bandwidth upgrades • Liaison with the Air Force Software Assurance Center of Excellence (ASACoE) to entertain suggestions for what role is appropriate • Ensemble Production Working Group/Panel - active from 2QFY10 to 1QFY16. Desired expertise would include ensemble processing, database structures, GRIB2 data format, model resolution, and software change management. The major activities this working group/panel would be engaged in include: • Producing required parameters/variables • Implementing GRIB2 • Producing and sharing of the 6-D data base • Ensemble configuration and resolution upgrades

23. COPC Requested Action • Approve JAGs OCM and CCM taking additional taskings under UEO Information Assurance and Ensemble Production Working Groups. • Identify mechanism for NUOPC requirements to be tasked to these groups. • Adjust membership as required

24. NUOPC Committee Roles • Content Standards Committee – will maintain and extend NUOPC interoperability standards, especially relating to the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF). This committee will be part of the ESMF management structure and provide guidance to the ESMF core team in development of a NUOPC-specific interoperability layer. • Common Model Architecture Committee – This committee will focus on the next generation global numerical weather modeling effort and adopt standards that will lead to greater interoperability and sharing of common components for next generation systems. • TTP Committee- will focus on accelerating new or improved capabilities into NUOPC.  It will form three sub-groups: • Research Needs Panel – Will assist in the development of a National R&D agenda and manage the NUOPC Fellowship Program. • Research Transition Facilities – Will perform technology transfer functions and manage the Visiting Scientist Program. • Scientific Metrics Committee – Will incorporate standardized measures of performance which lead to improved forecast skill.

25. Backup

26. NUOPC 08062009 ESG MinutesAction Items • Revisit plans for ESMF with a view toward the cost-benefit of supporting it through NUOPC; consider available offsets, possible reallocation of existing resources to reduce cost. Consider how ESMF should be managed in order to achieve desired interoperability goals for NUOPC. • Define role for OFCM in NUOPC. • Provide basis for proposed NUOPC cost growth after FY11 • Develop a concept for an external science advisory board. What caliber of membership is appropriate? Should they be nationally recognized? How is it related to our proposed advisory board and/or permanent committees? Suspense - to be presented at next ESG meeting • Provide RDML Titley with assessment of HFIP resources required for Navy to participate, either TACC or DSRC • insourcing/outsourcing. Build a Phase II/Phase III POM plan based on FTEs, then go to the agencies and ask what they are willing to insource. This relates to NUOPC staff, committees and ESMF development. Flesh out Phase III budget in detail for fall building and defense of POM12. • Provide a brief summary of Navy NWP R&D efforts to NCEP/Dr. Uccellini; include findings & decisions relative to UKMO model. • Continue to refine vision and strategic framework; plan to reconvene in early fall 2009. • Develop talking points that provide the “business case” for why to proceed with NUOPC and the broader NWP strategic vision • Proceed with scheduling tri-agency luncheon to inform senior agency leadership of NUOPC activities and strategy • Propose outreach venues via publications, major conferences, etc.

27. NUOPC Implementation Schedule FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 Prelim Phase I Beta Test Phase III Implementation Phase II FOC IOC-1 IOC-2 ADOPT INTEROPERABILITY STANDARDS SW INTEROPERABILITY INIT.STANDARDS DEVELOP FUTURE MODEL ARCHITECTURE EXCHANGE NAEFS DATA AND BIASED FIELDS, ARCHIVE, TRAINING FOC ENSEMBLE OPS, METRICS, TOOLBOX OPERATIONS CONOPS, BUDGET COMM, IA, HPC 0.5 0.25 0.1 VISITING SCIENTIST PROGRAM CONOPS, IMPLEMENTATION PLAN, BUDGET TRANSITION RESEARCH TRANSITION FACILITY (RTF) OUTREACH RESEARCH AGENDA AMS CONFERENCES, PLANS FOR PHASE II FELLOWSHIP PROGRAM MANAGEMENT TT PM, TEMPS FULL STAFF AND AGENCY PANELS DECISION BRIEF TO PRINCIPALS MODEL RESOLUTION UPGRADE

28. Navy NOAA (CNO N84) Administrator Dr. Lubchenco RADM Titley Mr. Robert Winokur (N84) & Col Ralph Stoffler (AFW) & Dr. Jack Hayes (NWS) & RDML Jon White (CNMOC) & Col John Murphy (AFWA) (ONR) (pending) Dr. Richard Spinrad (OAR) Dr. John Zapotocny Lt Col David Miller NUOPC Support Staff Mike Horner / Paul Demmert / Scott Sandgathe / William O’Connor Inter-Agency Committees, Working Groups and Action Groups NUOPC Phase II Support Structure Air Force (A3O-W) Dr. Lewis Executive Steering Group Executive Steering Group Col Ralph Stoffler (AFW) & Mr. Robert Winokur (N84) & Dr. Jack Hayes (NWS) & Col John Murphy (AFWA) RDML David Titley (CNMOC) Dr. Richard Spinrad (OAR) NUOPC NUOPC NUOPC Staff NUOPC Deputy PM NUOPC Project Manager Management Management Chuck McKinley Dave McCarren Fred Toepfer Staff Staff Agency Dr. John Zapotocny Joel Cline Kim Curry Agency David Soroka Kim Curry Liaisons Lt Col Bruce Lambert Jeremy Potter Steve Payne Liaisons Jeremy Potter Steve Payne

29. Combination of raw ensembles 500hPa height (CRPS) 850hPa temperature (CRPS) E20s – NCEP raw E36g – NCEP+FNMOC E40g – NCEP+CMC E56g – all three 2-meter temperature (CRPS) 10-meter U (CRPS) Winter 2008-2009

30. Fred Toepfer, PM Dave McCarren, Deputy PM October 2, 2009

31. Purpose of Briefing • NUOPC Status Review for Agency Principals

32. NUOPC Purpose and Motivation • The NUOPC partnership exists to enable an enhanced National Global Prediction System • Agencies coordinate R&D investments in advanced prediction technology • Each Agency leverages the total US investment through aligned policies and procedures • Coordinated operation and use of joint system capability • Accelerated advancement of US atmospheric prediction capability • Leverage the broader US R&D investment • NOAA-Navy Investments benefit broader needs

33. Background NUOPC is an integration of ongoing efforts coordinated by a Tri-Agency management organization • 2005 - Tri-Agency established a goal of complementary operational NWP • 2006 - Reviewed opportunities and alternatives; selected coordinated Global NWP as initial focus area • 2007 - Developed initial concepts and project plan for NUOPC • Initial dialog with Stakeholders, March 2007 • Phase I approved by Tri-Agency principals group (DoC US for Ocean and Atmospheres, AF/A3O-W, and Navy N84) • 2008 • Jan 22: Executive Steering Group (ESG) appointed Project Manager, approved ESG Charter for signature and authorized further resolution of “Stretch Goals” for IOC-1 • Follow-up dialog with Stakeholders, April 2008 • Three Interim Committees established; chairs appointed, membership selected, first meetings conducted in August 2008 • 2009 • June – Draft Committee Reports submitted for Agency review • August 6 -- ESG approval to proceed to Phase II

34. NUOPC Vision (2015) • AF, Navy, and NOAA partnership to address common operational global NWP needs • National NWP system with interoperable components built on common standards and framework (ESMF) • Managed operational ensemble diversity • Joint ensemble • Most probable forecast -- e.g. high impact weather • Mission Specific ensemble products • National global NWP research agenda to accelerate science and technology infusion

35. Agency Senior Management • Executive Steering Group (ESG): • Executive-level agency representative and associate representative from each agency • Provide overall policy and oversight • Provide resource commitments on behalf of agency principals • Approve Implementation Plan and Concept of Operations • Agency Principals: • NOAA: Undersecretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere and the Administrator of NOAA • AF: Director, Air Force Weather • Navy: Oceanographer of the Navy • Provide broad policy guidance • Ensure sustained agency support • Approval authority for execution of NUOPC Phases

36. Approach • Common global modeling architecture • To achieve necessary • Operating efficiencies • Interoperability • Enable benefits of partnership • Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF) - based • Multi-component operational system • Multiple system realizations used operationally to generate ensembles • Managed diversity in components to represent sources of forecast error • Products will address mission needs for: • Hurricane storm track and intensity • Severe weather (for all agencies) • Ensembles used across all agencies to • Define most likely forecast • Quantify uncertainty • Common ensemble-based post-processing algorithms

37. NUOPC Implementation Schedule FY2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Prelim Phase I Implementation Phase II Beta Test Phase III IOC-1 IOC-2 FOC ADOPT INTEROPERABILITY STANDARDS INIT.STANDARDS INTEROPERABILITY DEVELOP FUTURE MODEL ARCHITECTURE EXCHANGE NAEFS DATA AND BIASED FIELDS, ARCHIVE, TRAINING ENSEMBLE OPS, METRICS, TOOLBOX, FOC CONOPS, BUDGET OPERATIONS COMM, IA, HPC VISITING SCIENTIST PROGRAM CONOPS, IMPLEMENTATION PLAN, BUDGET TRANSITION RESEARCH TRANSITION FACILITY (RTF) OUTREACH RESEARCH AGENDA AMS CONFERENCES FELLOWSHIP PROGRAM DECISION BRIEF TO PRINCIPALS FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

38. Status • Committee Reports Finalized • Increased Tri-Agency Coordination • ESG Meeting regularly • Quantified cost and impact of Phase II • Demonstration of a prototype joint ensemble underway • North American Ensemble Forecast System • NOAA HFIP Demonstration on Texas Area Computer Center • Progress toward stretch goals • NOAA goal funded through HFIP • ONR funded Navy Stretch Goal • ESG approved Phase 2 Implementation at 08062009 Meeting

39. HFIP as Proof of Concept • Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program • Multiple high resolution, global models • NOAA Global Forecast System (GFS) • Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System ( NOGAPS) • NOAA ESRL Finite Volume, Flow-Following Icosahedral Model (FIM) • Multiple data assimilation systems • Operational Global Statistical Interpolation (GSI), ESRL Ensemble Kalman Filter System, Navy Operational NAVDAS- AR • Running cooperatively at multiple sites

40. Next Phase • Prototype Product Development • Joint wind, wave, temp probability product • Joint visibility ceiling probability product • Hurricane Track Probability • National R&D Agenda • Low resolution Joint Ensemble (NAEFS) • NOAA Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project Demonstration