Turkey and China: Seeking a Sustainable Partnership

1. Turkey and China: Seeking a Sustainable Partnership Doç.Dr. Selçuk Çolakoğlu Adnan Menderes University SETA Foundation 14 December 2009 / Ankara

2. Recent History • Turkey recognized People’s Republic of China on 5 August 1971 as the sole legal representative of China. • Turkey has also begun pursue one-China policy. • However, the relationship had remained in the lowest level during the 1970s and 1980s

3. Suspicious Partnership (1991-96) • The collapse of the Soviet Union and the emergence of newly independent Turkic sates in 1991, which enabled Turkey to re-discover Central Asia in its foreign policy. • Turkish public have emotionally welcomed the newly-born Turkic republics and in this context began to pay more attention Turkic and Muslim groups living in the Russian Federation and Xinjiang region of China. • Therefore, Russia and China had put a negative reaction against Turkish policy toward Central Asia and the Caucasus.

4. Estaplishing Mutual Trust (1997-2002) • Since mid-1990s, Turkey has begun to pursue more cautious diplomatic policy toward Central Asia instead of an assertive policy, and tried to improve good relations with Russia and China. • Turkish officials began to pay more attention to the Chinese authority’s stance on Xinjiang. The new Turkish regional policy warmly welcomed by China.

5. Turkey’s Expectations from China • Turkey had certainly revised its policy toward China in 1997 because of certain political, economic and security concerns. • Turkey expected that China might play a balancer role for Turkish foreign policy in international politics. • In terms of economy, Turkey considered China as a major potential trade partner and hence attempted to improve economic relations with Beijing. • China, providing economically more feasible options, was a strategic alternative for Turkish defense industry.

6. Turkish-Chinese Honeymoon • President Jiang Zemin’s Turkey visit on April 18-21, 2000 was a clear declaration of the opening of a new chapter in bilateral relations. • President Süleyman Demirel and President Jiang Zemin signed several agreements in the field of political, economic, and energy cooperation. Both presidents made a common statement on the compromise of fighting against international terrorism, ethnic separatism and religious extremism. • Turkey gave enough guarantees to China not interfere in Xinjiang issue.

7. Developing Economic Relations &Weakening Political Dialogue (2003-2008) • Throughout the developments in the bilateral relations from 1997 to 2008, China has been on the more advantageous side as the relations have been oriented to China, at least in economic field. • One of the main motivations of Ankara’s rapprochement to Beijing was to get some economic benefits to Turkish businessmen in China. However, the increasing trade volume with China caused huge trade imbalances for Turkey. • According to 2008 figures, China got a huge surplus in the amount of $15 billions trade with Turkey. • Chinese investment in Turkey remained only $60 millions in 2008.

8. Trade Imbalances between Turkey and ChinaThe Green Line: Turkey’s ExportThe Blue Line. Turkey’s Import

9. Some Policy Differences • Ankara and Beijing could not able to develop a common attitude in the Turkey-related cases, such as Kosovo, Bosnia, Cyprus, and Karabag issues. • Turkey disappointed when China has begun to establish so closed relations with the Kurdistan Regional Government in Iraq since 2003, particularly during the time in which the crisis between Turkey and Kurdish authorities has been escalated because of the PKK militants’ infiltration to Turkish soils. • China has officially objected to a possible cross-border operation by Turkey into neighboring Iraq in order to eliminate the presence of the PKK based in Northern Iraq since June 2007.

10. China gave assurance to Turkey that Varyag would be used only for touristic purposes in passing through Turkish straits in 2001 and the passage permission was requested in the same line. China has modernized Varyag as warship in 2009 which was a clear violation of the Montreux Conventionregulating military activity in the Black Sea. Varyag case

11. President Gül’s Breakthrough China Visit • Turkey and China have indeed buildup a new political partnership. • President Gül stressed Turkey’s "one-China" policy and repeated the emphasis that Xinjiang is an integral part of China. • President Gül referred in his speech on 28 June 2009 at Xinjiang University in Urumchi that the Uyghur people in Xinjiang would form a bridge of friendship between China and Turkey. • President Gül stressed on that Turkey wanted to see Uighur people as happy and prosperous citizens of China

12. Turkey wants the compensation of the bilateral trade imbalances in favor of China through - increase in Chinese investments in Turkey, - inbound tourism from China, - joint-ventures in the third countries, - more opening of the Chinese market to the Turkish products. Turkish Demands in Economics

13. Xinjiang Issue • The Urumchi riots erupted on July 5th 2009, just six days after President Gül’s Urumchi visit, have terribly undermined new Turkish-Chinese partnership concept.

14. Xinjiang Issue • There is popular interest in the Xinjiang issue amongst the Turkish public, which creates a tremendous civil pressure on the Turkish Government. • This explains the high and intense level of Turkish response to the Urumchi riots.

15. Turkey’s Position in Xinjiang Issue • Ankara has been carefully following and implementing its “one China” policy and considering Xinjiang as an integral part of China without any hesitation. • Turkey’s interest to Uyghur people is no different than China’s interest toward the overseas Chinese living in the Southeast Asian countries. • As China could actively involve in Chinese minority living in Southeast Asia for decades as a sign of national responsibility, no one should never calls Ankara’s interest to Uyghur people as a support of separatism.

16. Future Cooperation • Turkey and China have forged a good economic and political relationship in recent years. • Both countries provide great economic, political and strategic opportunities to each other in their own regions. • There is a need to strengthen this relationship and transform them into a strategic partnership to get much competitive stance in international relations for both sides.

17. Benefits for Turkey • China has aroused a potential strategic partner in East Asia for supporting Turkey’s high profile presentation in the region. • China would provide an economic and strategic gateway to China itself and East Asia; make foreign direct investment to Turkey. Besides, Turkish-Chinese firms would build joint-ventures in third countries.

18. Benefits for China • Chinese economy has been heavily dependent on the Middle Eastern energy resources and has exported the Middle East oil and gas through a route from the Indian Ocean to the South China Sea. Chinese goods have also been transferred to the African, West Asian and European markets using the same route, i.e. South China Sea-Malacca Strait-Indian Ocean. • By depending only one western transfer road create a quite fragile situation for the Chinese trade security. The so-called ‘Contemporary Silk Road’ starting form China to Turkey through Central Asia and the Caucasus could provide a northern landline alternative road to the southern sea line to China. • Turkey, having direct links to West Asia, Africa and Europe, is the only potential dealer for Chinese goods of the ‘Contemporary Silk Road’

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