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NOAA Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project Development

NOAA Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project Development. Fred Toepfer, HFIP Manager Bob Gall, HFIP Development Manager. Motivation. NOAA has been charged by OMB, and Congress, to substantially improve NOAA’s Hurricane Forecast and Warning Performance 20% within 5 years 50% overall goal.

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NOAA Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project Development

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  1. NOAAHurricane Forecast Improvement ProjectDevelopment Fred Toepfer, HFIP Manager Bob Gall, HFIP Development Manager

  2. Motivation • NOAA has been charged by OMB, and Congress, to substantially improve NOAA’s Hurricane Forecast and Warning Performance • 20% within 5 years • 50% overall goal

  3. NOAA HFIP Vision • A National Hurricane Forecast System (NHFS) focused on providing accurate and reliable forecast guidance to NHC out to 5-7 days • Multi-component global and storm scale atmospheric, wave and oceanic modeling system -- to accurately and reliably model both the hurricane and intensity and the environmental controls on storm evolution over time • Managed ensemble diversity to: • Provide ‘Most Probable” forecast • Quantify, bound and reduce forecast uncertainty • Optimal use of existing and planned observing systems • Advanced forecast techniques for forecaster use

  4. Two Stream Development • Stream 1: • Maintain and accelerate current plan outlined by operational development centers • Rate of improvement limited by currently projected operational computing (the sure thing) • Stream 2: Assumes possibility of acquiring significantly more operational computing (sustained or on-demand) beyond what is currently projected. Stream 2 will be used to: • Demonstrate added value of increased computing to operations • Experimental testing/evaluation of new capabilities (physics, etc) • Stream 2: Higher Resolution Demonstration System: • Use dedicated HFIP computing each hurricane season run a experimental forecast system with higher resolution/more ensemble members than is available in operations. • System would be improved each year based on new development and results from the previous season. System would be run in real time and results made available to NHC.

  5. Stream 2Potential Configuration • Global Model Ensemble System (10 – 30km) • FIM • GFS? • Other? • Mesoscale Hurricane Model Ensemble (4km) • HWRF • WRF ARW • Navy CoAMPS • Data Assimilation • EnKF System for hurricane model initialization • New data impact testing • High Resolution Hurricane Model (1-2km) • WRF ARW and/or HWRF

  6. Expected NOAA HFIP – STC Interaction/ Knowledge Transfer OAR NWS Experimental/ Development/ Test System Operational Model Suite T2O Knowledge Guidance STC NHC

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