Arms and Disarmament

1. Arms and Disarmament

2. How a nuclear war may start: • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9eQbrOWrFjM

4. IT IS 5 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT2012: "The challenges to rid the world of nuclear weapons, harness nuclear power, and meet the nearly inexorable climate disruptions from global warming are complex and interconnected. In the face of such complex problems, it is difficult to see where the capacity lies to address these challenges.” Political processes seem wholly inadequate; the potential for nuclear weapons use in regional conflicts in the Middle East, Northeast Asia, and South Asia are alarming; safer nuclear reactor designs need to be developed and built, and more stringent oversight, training, and attention are needed to prevent future disasters; the pace of technological solutions to address climate change may not be adequate to meet the hardships that large-scale disruption of the climate portends.”

5. The conventional logic underpinning normal practices of states – and of non-state forces resorting to use of force to achieve political aims • Peace is not always good, war is not always bad • “Just war” and “unjust peace” • Weapons are neutral, what matters is who uses them and for what purpose • You can’t obtain and secure peace and justice without resort to violence as the final argument • Use of force in politics will always be with us • The best we can do is limit it

7. The antimilitarist position: The destructiveness of modern warfare • Weapons of mass destruction • In wars, most casualties are now civilian Use of force – both by states and by non-state forces - is often politically counterproductive • If we address root causes of conflict and work for just solutions by political means, weapons may not have to be used • Peace works - if it is based on justice

8. To make the world more peaceful, it is necessary to change the existing social conditions which breed conflict and violence • How to change it? Various proposed solutions: • Facilitate replacement of authoritarian regimes by democracies • Promote social and economic development to eliminate poverty and suffering • Strive for equality and social justice • Replace capitalism with some form of socialism

9. While recognizing the need to address the root causes of conflict, antimilitarism focuses on the means of political struggle • Arms buildups themselves make war more likely • Military budgets are a burden on the economy • The incidence of warfare can be reduced if states cut their armaments to a minimum

10. The idea of disarmament • Traditional: compelling a defeated state to disarm • In the 20th century: a new international practice - mutual arms control and disarmament by international treaties • Natural reaction to the Era of Global Conflict, which threatens the very existence of humanity • Limit the scale of wars • Respond to public antiwar sentiment • Opposition to arms buildups dates back to late 19th century

11. After WWI • Covenant of the League of Nations, Article 8: • “The maintenance of peace requires the reduction of national armaments to the lowest point consistent with national safety.” • 1922: the Five Power Naval Limitation Treaty, extended and Conferences of 1922 and 1930 • A historic precedent was set • World Disarmament Conference of 1932 – no success, buildup of international tensions, new wars

13. After WWII • Demobilization everywhere; strong desire for peace • Creation of the United Nations Organization • But the Cold War generated a new arms race • Its cutting edge were nuclear weapons • And the conventional (non-nuclear) arms race continued

14. The First Nuclear Age: 1945-1991

15. Trinity, history’s first nuclear explosion, Alamogordo, NM, July 16, 1945

16. Robert Oppenheimer, father of the atomic bomb

18. World’s first nuclear weapon: The Little Boy, explosive yield 12-15 kilotons (1/100 of B83 bomb)

20. Hiroshima, August 6, 1945

23. The Weapons

24. US B83 nuclear bomb, explosive yield – 1.2 megatons

25. A single US nuclear submarine carries 192 nuclear warheads which can kill up to 50 mln. people

27. A MIRV

28. Topol-M ICBM (Russia)

29. Tu-95 strategic bomber (Russia)

30. B-52 strategic bomber (US)

31. ”The White Swan”: Tu-160 strategic bomber (Russia)

32. B-2A strategic bomber (US)

33. The world’s nuclear arsenals • 23,360 nuclear weapons located at some • 111 sites in 14 countries. • Nearly one-half of these weapons are active or operationally deployed. • 96% of the total are in the possession of the United States and Russia • *BAS, Nov.-Dec. 2009, p. 86-87

34. The nuclear arsenals, by country

36. Chain reaction

39. The destructive power of nuclear weapons • Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Aug. 1945: • 0.25 million lives • Total destructive power of existing nuclear weapons: • 150,000 times the bombs which destroyed Hiroshima and Nagasaki, or • 2,000 times the destructive power used in all of World War II, including the nuclear bombs dropped on Japan

40. What are these weapons for? • 2 schools of thought: • They can be used to fight and win wars • They can only be used to prevent wars as a means of deterrence • Since 1945, they have never been used in a war • Deterrence only • In 1949, US lost its monopoly on nuclear weapons, and deterrence became mutual • By 1960s, it became clear that a nuclear war would have no winners • It would be an act of omnicide (killing everyone and everything)

41. The balance of terror • The two sides – the Americans and the Russians – have balanced each other out for the past 50 years • MAD – Mutual Assured Destruction • The weapons became unusable – nuclear deadlock • No one can strike first without causing devastating retaliation • Second strike capability – ability to survive a strike and strike back • Can be as small as 100 warheads

42. The disappearance of the first strike capability severely limited possibilities of nuclear war • Those who believe in using nuclear weapons to win wars are unhappy about this • They seek ways to regain nuclear superiority (also known as strategic superiority) • Their argument: in order to deter the enemy, he must know you can fight and win nuclear war • So, you need to devise new weapons which would make it possible • So, deterrence requires ability to wage nuclear war with a purpose – MAD, indeed!

43. The US-Russian nuclear arms race

44. October 1962: the Cuban Missile Crisis, the turning point

45. Gorbachev and Reagan sign a treaty to ban all medium-range ballistic missiles (The INF Treaty)

47. 24 nuclear arms control treaties since 1959 Main existing: Partial Test Ban Treaty of 1963 INF, signed in 1987 START-I, signed in 1991 SORT, signed in 2002 CTR agreements The Outer Space Treaty NPT, signed in 1968, went into effect in 1970 CTBT, signed in 1996, still not fully in effect

48. And yet… • The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, 2007: • "We stand at the brink of a second nuclear age. Not since the first atomic bombs were dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki has the world faced such perilous choices. “

49. The four threats • 1. Nuclear terrorism • 2. Nuclear proliferation • 3. Existing nuclear arsenals • Their size and posture • The NPT linkage • Policies of US and Russia in the past decade • 4. Climate change linkages • New interest in nuclear power generation and trade in nuclear fuels • Climate change will undermine international security • Environmental impact of the use of nuclear weapons

50. Operational status • Dr. Bruce Blair, former Minuteman ICBM Launch Control Officer and now President of the World Security Institute (Washington, DC): • “Both the United States and Russia today maintain about one-third of their total strategic arsenals on launch-ready alert. Hundreds of missiles armed with thousands of nuclear warheads-the equivalent of about 100,000 Hiroshima bombs-can be launched within a very few minutes.” • http://www.reachingcriticalwill.org/legal/npt/prepcom08/ngostatements/OpStatus.pdf