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WMO. 2 nd Conference of the OECD International Network on the Financial Management of Large-scale Catastrophes Session 1 : L earning from the past and looking ahead: Thailand and South East Asia five years after the tsunami, and facing the threats of global warming.

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world meteorological organization working together in weather climate and water

WMO

2nd Conference of the OECD International Network on the Financial Management of Large-scale Catastrophes

Session 1: Learning from the past and looking ahead: Thailand and South East Asia five years after the tsunami, and facing the threats of global warming.

Role of WMO and National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in Disaster Risk Reduction

Maryam Golnaraghi, Ph.D.

Chief of WMO Disaster Risk Reduction Programme

September 24, 2009, Bangkok, Thailand

World Meteorological OrganizationWorking together in weather, climate and water

www.wmo.int

slide2

AGENDA

  • After Tsunami
  • Managing Meteorological, Hydrological and Climate related risks
  • Role of HydroMet Services in Disaster Risk Management
    • Risk assessment
    • Risk Reduction and Early Warning Systems
    • Risk Transfer
  • WMO initiatives
slide3

Indian Ocean Tsunami 2004

  • Ocean based Tsunami observing system installed (UNESCO-IOC)
  • 2 international Tsunami Watch Centers designated (JMA, PTWC)
  • WMO Global Telecommunication System updated in 8 countries
    • All countries receive Tsunami Watch under 5 minute
  • All countries in Indian Ocean have National Focal Points for Tsunami watch

BUT Disaster risk management and emergency preparedness in most countries is still reactive and remain to be addressed

slide4
Distribution of Disasters Caused by Natural Hazards and their Impacts (1980-2007) in South and South-East Asia

90% of events

55% of casualties

84% of economic losses

are related to hydro-meteorological hazards and conditions.

Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - www.em-dat.net - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgiumc

Bangladesh, Buthan, Cambodia, India, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Maldives, Myanmar, Nepal, Philippines, Singapore, SriLanka, Thailand, Vietnam

slide5

Regional Distribution of Number of Disasters, Casualties and Economic losses Caused by natural hazards (1980-2007)

Number of events

Loss of life

Economic Losses

Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgiumc

climate change impact in south and south east asia ipcc 4th assessment report 2007
Climate change impact in South and South East AsiaIPCC 4th Assessment Report (2007)
  • Increase in occurrence in extreme weather events: heat waves and intense precipitation events
  • Increase of 10-20 % in Tropical Cyclones intensities for a rise of sea surface temperature of 2 to 4 degrees
  • Expansion of areas under severe water stress
  • Increased flooding risks during wet season and possibilities of water shortage in dry season on the Mekong river
  • Sea level rise could flood the residence of millions of people in the low-level areas (Vietnam, Bangladesh and India)
  • Increased in climate related diseases (diarrhea and malnutrition, infectious diseases such as cholera)
slide7

How WMO’s Research and Operational Network of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services support Disaster Risk ManagementWMO leverages global, regional, national cooperation to ensure development and availability of meteorological, hydrological and climate services at the national level.

slide8

WMO has been coordinating International Research Programmes in Weather and Climate

World Climate Research Programme, World Weather Research Programme

Operational forecasting systems

Northern AtlanticOscillation

Pacific

Decadal

Oscillation

UNFCCC

negotiations

IPCC Assessments

slide9
WMO Coordinates a Global Network for Monitoring, Detection and Forecasting of Hazards Operated by National Meteorological Services

2

Global Observing System

National Meteorological &

Hydrological

Services

1

3

4

Global Data Processing and Forecasting

Global Telecommunication System

communication and dissemination of processed information
Communication and Dissemination of Processed information

5

National Meteorological

and Hydrological Services

Examples:

Global Tropical Cyclone and Storm Watch System

Emergency Response Activities

Drought Monitoring and Forecasting

6

Private

sector

General

public

Government and

civil defence

authorities

Media

slide11

WMO Network Supports National Early Warning Systems such as the Cyclone Preparedness Programme in Bangladesh

slide12

WMO Disaster Risk Reduction Programme was established in 2003 to …Leverage WMO’s Research and Operational Network and partnerships to support disaster risk reduction at the national level in a more comprehensive and coordinated manner

hyogo framework for action change in paradigm of drm
Hyogo Framework for Action…… change in paradigm of DRM
  • Traditionally, disaster risk management has been focused on post disaster response in most countries!
  • Adoption of Hyogo Framework for Action in 2005 is leading to a new paradigm in disaster risk management involving investments in preparedness and prevention through risk assessment, risk reduction and risk transfer ….

Implementation of the new paradigm in DRM would require meteorological, hydrological and climate information and services!

slide14
Comprehensive National Disaster Risk Management Programmes Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services

Alignment of national to local policies, legislation, planning, resources multi-sectoral organizational coordination and collaboration

Risk Identification

Risk Reduction

Risk Transfer

Hazard databases

Hazard statistics

Climate forecasting and trend analysis

Exposed assets & vulnerability

Risk analysis tools

1

PREPAREDNESS: early warning systems emergency planning

MITIGATION AND PREVENTION: Medium to long term sectoral planning (e.g. zoning, infrastructure, agriculture)

CAT insurance & bonds

Weather-indexed insurance and derivatives

Other emerging products

3

2

Information and Knowledge SharingEducation and training

wmo action plan for disaster strengthening risk reduction at national and regional level
WMO Action Plan for Disaster strengthening Risk Reduction at national and regional level
  • Modernized Hydromet Services and observing networks.
  • Strengthened national operational multi-hazard early warning systems.
  • Strengthened hazard analysis and hydro-meteorological risk assessment capacities.
  • Strengthened Hydromet Services cooperation and partnerships with civil protection and disaster risk management agencies.
  • Trainedmanagement and staff of Hydromet Services
  • Enhanced ministerial and publicawareness
slide16

Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Servicesin Risk Assessment

Alignment of national to local policies, legislation, planning, resources multi-sectoral organizational coordination and collaboration

Risk Identification

Risk Reduction

Risk Transfer

Hazard databases

Hazard statistics

Climate forecasting and trend analysis

Exposed assets & vulnerability

Risk analysis tools

PREPAREDNESS: early warning systems emergency planning

MITIGATION AND PREVENTION: Medium to long term sectoral planning (e.g. zoning, infrastructure, agriculture)

CAT insurance & bonds

Weather-indexed insurance and derivatives

Other emerging products

Information and Knowledge SharingEducation and training

role of national meteorological and hydrological services in risk assessment
Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Servicesin Risk Assessment

Provision of hazard data and analysis to support risk assessment:

  • Historical and real-time hazard databases and metadata
  • Hazard analysis and mapping methodologies
  • Forward looking hazard trend analysis
    • Short- to Medium-term weather forecasts
    • Probabilitic climate models
number of countries maintaining some sort of hazard data archives
Number of Countries Maintaining some sort of Hazard Data Archives
  • Very few countries maintain impact databases
  • Data archived are not standardised
  • 90 % of NMHS indicated need for guidelines and support in hazard analysis, mapping and statistics (WMO DRR survey)
slide19

Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Servicesin Risk Reduction

Alignment of national to local policies, legislation, planning, resources multi-sectoral organizational coordination and collaboration

Risk Identification

Risk Reduction

Risk Transfer

Hazard databases

Hazard statistics

Climate forecasting and trend analysis

Exposed assets & vulnerability

Risk analysis tools

PREPAREDNESS: early warning systems emergency planning

MITIGATION AND PREVENTION: Medium to long term sectoral planning (e.g. zoning, infrastructure, agriculture)

CAT insurance & bonds

Weather-indexed insurance and derivatives

Other emerging products

Information and Knowledge SharingEducation and training

slide20

Economic losses related to disasters are on the way up

While casualties related to hydro-meteorological disasters are decreasing

Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database

slide21

In many countries, early warning systems are not an integral part of disaster risk management

Communities

at risk

National to local

governments

post-disasterresponse

hazard warning

NATIONAL SERVICES

Meteorological

Hydrological

hazard warning

Geological

Marine

Health (etc.)…

what is an effective ews

4

1

National to local

governments

supported by

DRR plans, legislation

and coordination

mechanisms

Community Preparedness

What is an Effective EWS?

5

feedback

preventiveactions

5

feedback

2

warnings

warnings

COORDINATION AMONGNATIONAL SERVICES

3

3

Meteorological

Hydrological

Geological

Marine

Health (etc.)

3

warnings

feedback

5

slide23

Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services forFinancial Risk Transfer Markets

Alignment of national to local policies, legislation, planning, resources multi-sectoral organizational coordination and collaboration

Risk Identification

Risk Reduction

Risk Transfer

Hazard databases

Hazard statistics

Climate forecasting and trend analysis

Exposed assets & vulnerability

Risk analysis tools

PREPAREDNESS: early warning systems emergency planning

MITIGATION AND PREVENTION: Medium to long term sectoral planning (e.g. zoning, infrastructure, agriculture)

CAT insurance & bonds

Weather-indexed insurance and derivatives

Other emerging products

Information and Knowledge SharingEducation and training

role of national meteorological and hydrological services for financial risk transfer markets
Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services for Financial Risk Transfer Markets
  • Availability and accessibility ofhistoricalandreal-time data
  • Data quality assurance, filling data gaps, homogenization and analysis
  • Reliable and authoritative data forcontract design and settlement
  • Forecastsfor management of risk portfolio
  • Technical support and service delivery
challenges at different levels
Challenges at different levels
  • Building, strengthening and sustaining the meteorological/climate observing networks, data management and forecasting systems are resource intensive and not on the radar screen of many governments!
  • Servicing Financial Risk Transfer markets is a “new” field for Meteorological and Hydrological Services!
addressing these challenges at different levels
Addressing these Challenges at different levels
  • Need to make a business case for the need for National Meteorological and Hydrological Services with their governments (e.g., investments in meteorological capacities is an investment towards improved risk managment and development)
  • Initiate systematic modenization/data rescue/capacity development of Met Services with a sustainability plan
  • Raise awareness of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services on emerging opportunities such as « weather-indexed Insurance » (based on lessons learnt from demonstrated pilots)
  • Engage National Meteorological and Hydrlogical Services as Partners
  • Standardization of core meteorlogical/hydrological/climate products
progress with catastrophe cat insurance bond and weather risk management markets

Catastrophe Insurance and Bond Markets

Weather Risk Management Markets (ART)

European Agricultural Risk

Hydro Electric Power Risk Contracts

Wind Power Risk Contracts

Southeastern Europe Disaster Risk management Project

& Southeastern and Central European Risk Insurance Facility

UK Flood CAT Bond

CAT Bond Markets post Hurricane Andrew

Indian Agricultural Risk

Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility

Heating Degree Day Contracts

Drought Risk Management in Ethiopia

Malawi Drought Risk Management

Pacific Risk Insurance Facility

Progress with Catastrophe (CAT) Insurance / Bond and Weather Risk Management Markets
key questions
Key Questions:

1) Can National Meteorological and Hydrological Services meet these demands?

2) How to engage National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in the DRR planning and implementation to generate demand for their services?

slide29

Country-level Capacity Assessment Survey (2006)

Assessing Capacities, Gaps and Needs of National Meteorological Services to support disaster risk management:

  • 1. National policies and legislation
  • 2. Infrastructure & institutional capacities in monitoring, forecasting, communications
  • Hazard databases
  • Forecasting and Warning Capacities
  • Human resources (technical, managerial)
  • Operational partnerships with disaster risk management stakeholders
slide30

Country-level Capacity Assessment Survey (2006)

Country Responses

44/48

92 %

18/22

82 %

25/34

74 %

10/12

83 %

14/19

74 %

24/52

54 %

139 /187 Countries responded

74% response rate

http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/drr/natRegCap_en.html

country level capacity assessment survey 2006
Country-Level Capacity Assessment Survey (2006)

Under estimated

Around 60% of the NMHS are challenged in meeting needs in DRM!

slide33

WMO is Establishing Strategic Partnerships with Agencies that Influence the National DRM Programmes and Funding

slide34
WMO is addressing this challenge through national and regional projects with World Bank, UNDP, ISDR and others

Partnerships and ‘User-driven’service delivery

Modernization of infrastructures (when needed)

observing networks, forecasting and communication

Data rescue and managment systems

Technical training – Analysis and forecasting tools and methodologies

Generating demand for Meteorological and Hydrological Services with the goal to direct sustainable government funding overtime for further improving and sustaining of these services

systematic multi agency cooperation projects
Systematic Multi-Agency Cooperation Projects

(Europe)

DRR Pilot South East Europe: 8 countries (World Bank, UNDP, ISDR, WMO)

DRR Pilot South East Asia: 5 countries (World Bank, UNDP, ISDR, WMO)

(Asia-Pacific)

End-to-end EWS Pilot Central America: 3 countries (World Bank, UNDP, ISDR, WMO, NOAA, IFRC)

(North America & Carribeans)

(South America)

DRR Pilot Central Asia and Caucasus: 7 countries (World Bank, UNDP, ISDR, WMO)

(Asia)

Shanghai Mega City Multi Hazard-EWS demo

(Africa)

Sever weather/Flash Flood Guidance /storm watch technical training (SADC)

End-to-end EWS

2010

2007

2008

2009

2011

slide37

World Bank, ISDR, WMO initiative in South East Asia

  • Initiated in 2009
  • Goal: to strengthen institutional cooperation and coordination in
  • Risk Management Capacities
  • Hydro meteorological services

Lao

Vietnam

Cambodia

Philippines

Indonesia

Phase I: Fact finding assessment and development of national and regional reports (Funded by GFDRR)

(underway)

slide38

Trends and patterns of hazard are changing due to climate change (IPCC)Statistical analysis of historical data is only first estimate . Needs for forward looking information to augment statistical hazard analysis and mapping

slide39

Climate variability and change and their impacts are not uniform geographically

Droughts

Trends in heavy rainfall

Trends in Frost and Heat Waves

Need for production of local climate information…

Highly Resource Intensive!

(IPCC, 2007)

IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007

global regional national cooperation framework for provisions of climate services
Global/Regional/National Cooperation Framework For Provisions of Climate Services

Four Major Thrusts:

Understanding of information needs of at-risk sectors

Through partnerships (with UN, international and regional agencies)

Designation and coordination of network of global and regional climate centers

to faciliate provision of forecasting and analysis tools and information to national centers

Strengthen observation networks

More targeted climate research

global regional network of wmo designated climate centers
Global/Regional Network of WMO Designated Climate Centers

Gobal Producing Centres of Long Range Forecasts (GPCs)

Regional Climate Centres (RCCs)

RCC Network Nodes (Pilot)

ECMWF

Moscow

Exeter

Montreal

Beijing

Seoul

Toulouse

Tokyo

Washington

Lead Centre for LRFMME

Pretoria

Melbourne

Lead Centre for SVSLRF

SVSLRF: Standardized Verification System for Long Range Forecasts

LRFMME: Long Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble

CLW/CLPA/WCAS

slide42

World Climate Conference-3Better climate information for a better future

Geneva, Switzerland31 August–4 September 2009

slide43
Countries: Burundi, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Sudan, Somalia, Tanzania, and Uganda

Objectives: Development of climate information based on observations and latest climate tools and forecasting technologies

Sectors: Agriculture and water resource management

Timeline of data: Different climate scales up to 20 years:

Partners

National: NMHS, sectors representatives

International/Regional: World Bank,

Technical: GlobalClimate Centers (US, UK, ECMWF, Pretoria) and Regional centers (IGAD)

Status: Project was launch on June 21

World Bank project manager: Amal Talbi-Jordan

Climate Risk management Project in AfricaWMO/World Bank Project in AfricaFunded by GFDRR

slide44

Thank You

For more information please contact:

Maryam Golnaraghi, Ph.D.

Chief of Disaster Risk Reduction Programme

World Meteorological Organization

Tel. 41.22.730.8006

Fax. 41.22.730.8023

Email. MGolnaraghi@WMO.int

http://www.wmo.int/disasters

increasing risks under a changing climate

Strong Wind

Coastal Marine Hazards

Tropical Cyclones

Heavy rainfall / Flood

Heatwaves

Need for

disaster riskmanagement

Energy

Increasing Risks under a Changing Climate

Water Resource

Management

Food security

Transport

Intensity

Industry

Health

Urban areas

Volnurability and

Exposure on the rise !

Hazards’ intensityand frequencyare increasing

Frequency

a comprehensive approach to drr is critical for reducing risks
A comprehensive approach to DRR is critical for reducing risks

Hyogo Framework for Action

2005-2015

(World Conference on Disaster Reduction)

WMO

Strategic Plan

2008-2015

(Top Level Objectives and Five Strategic Thrusts)

Consultations with WMO governing bodies, Regional and National network and partners

WMO strategic priorities

in Disaster Risk Reduction