Inmarsat SwiftBroadband: Capability to Support Aeronautical Safety Services

1. Inmarsat SwiftBroadband:Capability to Support Aeronautical Safety Services Nikos Fistas, Phil Platt ACP Working Group C 10th Meeting, 13-17 March 2006, Montreal European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation

2. EUROCONTROL Study • EUROCONTROL launched study at end 2004 with the aim ... • “of helping the aviation community to assess how Aero-BGAN could improve its communication infrastructure in fulfilling the aviation requirements, what would be the resulting concept of operation in different world regions, what are the expected associated cost, and how major institutional and business issues would be solved.” • AeroBGAN now called SwiftBroadband

3. Study Consortium • Contract awarded to a consortium with key industry partners to carry out the study • QinetiQ - leader • Inmarsat • SITA • Thales Avionics • EADS Astrium • Consultation with Stakeholders e.g. through NexSAT SG, AEEC and ANASTASIA

4. Study Overview • WP1 – Technical Characteristics of SwiftBroadband and its potential to support ATS applications • WP2 – Institutional Issues • WP3 – Airborne Architectures • WP4 – Cost and Charges • WP5 – Executive Summary

5. WP1 – Report Overview • Overview of BGAN described • SwiftBroadband features described: • Key points; Edge of coverage performance, beam and satellite transition capabilities, narrow spot beam activation • Potential for investigation into ‘fall-back’ service in event of SwiftBroadband outage • Comparison with NexSAT HLMR, COCR • Identify shortcomings in SBB • Possible upgrades described • Priority, pre-emption and precedence • Party line using 3G multicast Note Performance programme with production standard equipment now completed, SwiftBroadband avionics data available circa. mid 2007 data not available during the course of the project – BGAN Beta test Annex with more detail on channel and coding rates supplied

6. WP1 - Packet Switched Service • Data rates up to 432kbit/s • High Speed internet access available globally from small terminals for all mobiles • Based on IPv4 • Performance enhanced by TCP/IP accelerator to compensate for satellite delay • DSL-class internet access • Radio Resource Management (RRM) to maintain minimum data rates as required

7. WP1 - Circuit Switched Services:Voice and Data • Direct Dial Voice Service • Optimised 4 kb/s “AMBE+2” codec • global access and mobility (+870 77…) • Voicemail Services • Standard UMTS Supplementary Services • ISDN Bearer Services (same as Swift64) • 64 kb/s UDI Service to terrestrial ISDN networks • 3.1kHz Audio Service for PCM voice, fax, and V-series modem support • Text Messaging • send to or receive from any SMS-capable device

8. WP1 - Terminal Types SwiftBroadband Existing mode Existing mode BGAN Mode Swift 64 Swift 64 - - regional regional High gain (Class 6 UT) Aero high gain BGAN • • 64kbit/s ISDN & MPDS 64kbit/s ISDN & MPDS • • 266 232 – – 422 492 kbit kbit /s rx /s rx • • 225 332 – – 492 492 kbit kbit /s /s tx tx •Aero H/H+ Aero H/H+ - - global global •Voice, fax, PM data • • Voice, fax, PM data Voice, fax, PM data •Potential for Safety services Safety services • • Safety services Aero I Aero I - - regional regional Aero I BGAN Int. gain (Class 7 UT) • • 2.4 2.4 kbit kbit /s fax and data /s fax and data • • 200 200 – – 344 344 kbit kbit /s rx /s rx • • 4.8 4.8 kbit kbit /s X.25 /s X.25 • • 192 192 – – 332 332 kbit kbit /s /s tx tx •Voice, fax, PM data • • Safety services Safety services •Potential for Safety services Aero L Aero L - - global global Low gain (Class 4 UT)* Aero low gain BGAN • • 1.2 1.2 kbit kbit /s PMD /s PMD • • tbd kbit /s rx 36 - 50 kbit /s rx 21 - 55 kbit /s tx • • Safety services Safety services • • tbd kbit /s tx •Voice,PM data •Potential for Safety services • Low gain (Class 4 UT) is a possible future service. It is being studied as part of Anastasia project

9. WP1 - IOR narrow spot beam coverage of ECAC The map depicts Inmarsat’s expectations of coverage but does not represent a guarantee of service. The availability of service at the edge of coverage areas fluctuate depending upon a variety of conditions.

10. WP1 – AOR(W) narrow spot beam coverage of ECAC The map depicts Inmarsat’s expectations of coverage but does not represent a guarantee of service. The availability of service at the edge of coverage areas fluctuate depending upon a variety of conditions.

11. WP1 – Additional features required for Safety Service In Oceanic Airspace • Priority and pre-emption (in aircraft, in RAN, in CN). • Redundancy (in event of major satellite failure) • Two approaches • More SBB capable satellites • If so must probably wait until next generation of Inmarsat satellites are available. • Use Swift64 or classic as fallback • Need redundant ground segment • BGAN already provides this • Mechanisms to switch quickly to redundant satellite • Addressing – is SIM addressing acceptable (as is today in SBB) or does it need to use ICAO address? • Data connection • Integration of IP bearer within ATS infrastructure

12. WP1 – Additional features required for Safety Service In Enroute Airspace • As before plus • Confirmation that Party line is needed • Multiple SBB directional antennas needed • Single antenna cannot meet availability criteria due to antenna key hole effects e.g. during banking • Will need an omni service to allow operation to all aircraft in sector • Capacity of SBB needs to be confirmed

13. WP1 – ATS Requirements • Requirements are key to assessing technology capability • ATS communications requirements are complex • need understood operational concept from which communication requirements can be drawn Comparison with COCR • COCR timescale spans up to at least 2030 in two Phases • Phase 1 completion is around 2020 with implementation starting now • Phase 2 is beyond 2020 • SwiftBroadband is relevant to Phase 1 only as this is nearing the end of the planned satellite lifetime

14. WP1 - ATS Capacity Requirements • Capacity - air/ground addressed - per service volume in kbps for Phase 1 • APT=airport, ENR = Enroute, ORP = Oceanic/Remote/Polar • HD = high density, LD = low density

15. WP1 – Latency, Integrity and Availability

16. WP1 - Potential use of SwiftBroadband for ATS • Initial assessment of SBB not clear • C,I, A figures needs to be confirmed

17. WP2 - Institutional Issues • The business model has changed significantly • LESOs are no longer in the supply chain • Inmarsat continues to be a ‘focussed wholesaler’

18. WP2 – Business model • Inmarsat business model • ‘Classic aero’ service is supported on the I-4 satellites and accessed under the existing arrangements • BGAN is based on a different business model to ‘classic aero’ services • Service is operated through Inmarsat owned facilities • Distribution Partners provide access to the service to end-users • possibility that ANSPs in the future could have direct arrangement with Inmarsat

19. WP2 - Commercial Issues • Existing CSPs will continue to offer Classic Aero services but cannot offer BGAN services without serving a cooling off period of 1 year. • Inmarsat has negotiated agreements with 10 Land BGAN DPs. • None yet for “aero” services, hence pricing undecided. • SLAs yet to be defined. • Inmarsat only liable for acts of gross negligence, wilful misconduct or fraud. • Damages limited to US$1M or previous 12 months wholesale charges • Not clear yet if this will apply to “aero” • Whatever arrangement is in place will flow on to ANSPs.

20. WP2 - Competitive Issues • Two types of competition need to be considered. • Inter-Service Competition • Competition for satellite service provision • Intra-Service Competition • Competition within the supply chain between DPs, CSPs, etc.

21. WP 2 – Risk: Safety and Technical • Can be broken down to Operational and Technical Risk • Operational – effect of failures, certification levels, SLAs • Technical – obsolescence, refurbishment, life-cycle planning. Conclusions: • Operational • CNS systems must remain the tools of ATM • Increased certification levels will make costs prohibitive • Even with the highest availability levels failures will happen, hence workarounds are needed • Commercial pressures will force DPs, CSPs to be more responsive. • SLA’s must cover more than techical performance: • Notification procedures, thresholds, escalation procedures, fault handling.

22. WP 2 – Risk: Safety and Technical Conclusions (cont’d) • With no backup satellite, satellite failure is the biggest risk • SwiftBroadband , as currently planned, can only be a supplementary means of communication – for critical communications • Additional satellites can remedy this • Technical • Life-Cycle Planning essential (for Inmarsat, DPs, CSPs) • Plans for technological obsolescence needed • Regular capacity planning • Satellite Datalink traffic has doubled recently • Avoidance of proprietary system components • Alternatives needed for spares/upgrades

23. WP2 – Risk: Financial/Commercial • Financial/Commercial Risk could affect both Service Providers and end-users. First the Service Providers: • Financial returns need to be adequate to fund capacity expansion. • Experience with the “Classic” service has been that Inmarsat and SITA have funded capacity improvements for Earth Stations that they neither own nor operate. • Change in Inmarsat business model will help overcome this issue • “Flat Price” pricing models will hamper growth. • These can be used if reviewed regularly or limited to specialised or niche services. • Charges must bear some relationship to traffic levels.

24. WP2 – Risk: Financial/Commercial For End-Users: • Safety-related services – longevity, stability • A monopoly position would provide this however end-users would not enjoy the benefits of competition: • Competitive Price Pressure • Improved Customer Service • Rapid service introduction • Most importantly, alternatives should a provider fail financially • ICAO Acceptability Criteria require AMS(R)S providers to commit to provide service for six years. • what happens when/if that provider fails financially?

25. WP2 – Risk: Financial/Commercial End-Users (cont’d) • However we shouldn’t have too much of a good thing! Why? • Erosion of profit margins – limits future investment. • Instability – providers entering and leaving market. Modest competition is the solution: • Benefits forthcoming without loss of financial incentives. The solution: • Strict enforcement of standards • Natural barrier to entry • Ensures portability. • Guaranteed minimum service lifetime • ICAO acceptability criteria a good start, needs to apply to all providers • Reduced barriers to entry for non-performance/safety related issues. • COTS not proprietary solutions.

26. WP 3 - Aircraft Architecture • Target is to achieve significant equipage levels for both long-haul and short-haul/smaller aircraft to be useful as complementary system • Long-haul aircraft are more likely to be equipped with High Gain Antenna SwiftBroadband system • Short-haul/smaller aircraft unlikely unless small physical size and significantly cheaper • Low gain system can be considered the common denominator • Main issue to overcome is interruption of service due to manoeuvring of aircraft because of antenna keyholes • Less of an issue for oceanic operation

27. WP3 - Interfaces To Cockpit-Data • Current interface is • Data2/Williamsburg/Arinc 429 (FANS 1/A) • Data3/Williamsburg/Arinc 429 (ATN compatible) • Key question is how this will migrate to the IP environment supported by SwiftBroadband • Tunnel existing Data2/3 over IP • Migrate to pure IP environment • ICAO ACP is considering accommodating IP • Where will this function reside • In SDU? • In another unit? • Industry will need to consider this

28. WP4 - Costs and Charges • Infrastructure costs - • SwiftBroadband service support will be more complex (and expensive) due to: • Higher traffic levels, higher data rates • A much broader range of services

29. WP4 - Capital Investments • Avionics costs • Long haul aircraft systems essentially paid for by passenger/airline applications • Typical costs around $200-300K • Short haul aircraft system justification may be more difficult - more cost attributable to ATS applications • low cost solution needed - target cost around high end VHF radio • Target figure identified in earlier NexSAT Steering Group meeting was in the order of $50k

30. WP4 - Recurring Costs • Satellite Operator - space segment and ground station operating costs, service support systems • DPs/CSPs – network support costs, performance reporting, accounting/billing, customer support, help-desk • Both entities also incur GS&A costs as well as the costs to promote and market the respective services • For DPs/CSPs, ATS represent premium services: • Higher performance levels and reporting • Stricter SLAs • More customer support • More industry support required

31. WP4 – Market Size • Market Size somewhat uncertain – uptake of new services will determine success or otherwise. • Likely evolutionary paths are as follows: • New aircraft will be equipped with SBB (or equivalents) • Existence of new passenger services will encourage greater use • Web-surfing, streaming applications, VPN, e-mail • New services may encourage airlines to equip short-haul and even regional aircraft • An ATS mandate will increase penetration further • We believe that this progression will occur in sequence

32. WP4 - Scenarios

33. WP4 – Traffic Projections • Inmarsat traffic projection model populated during the study gives the results for the scenarios Some observations • The wide variation in outcomes means that providers must assume a large amount of risk. • Providers are optimistic however this is based on three key provisions: • Low-cost avionics will support equipage on Short-Haul and Regional aircraft. • Surveys reveal that a large proportion of business travellers would use their own cell-phone if they could. • By 2015 a whole generation of travellers will have grown up with cell-phones and the internet. They will want to stay in touch!

34. WP4 – Charging Models • A range of possibilities: • the pay as you go model • the fixed-price model • DPs/CSPs prefer schemes where revenue is linked to usage • Automatically helps fund capacity/service improvements • End-Users prefer the all-inclusive fixed price model • Predictable costs, ease of budgeting • The likely outcome will be….

35. WP4 – Future Charging Schemes • Indications are that most airlines will make use of fixed-fee, multilink agreements • Fee will be related to fleet size for airlines • Stepped traffic allowances (to protect DPs, CSPs) • “Multilink” means that the same fee will apply regardless of the link used • ATS services will still be considered premium services

36. WP4 - Way ahead • As mentioned under “Institutional Issues”, distribution agreements for SwiftBroadband have yet to be negotiated • Until DPs know the wholesale price that they will be charged it is impossible to determine a realistic final user charge • These are all subject to negotiation and hence are confidential • What can be said is that unit prices will be significantly lower • Usage will affect charge significantly

37. WP4 - Price Determination Process Multiple Iterations Determine Pricing Effects on Demand (elasticity) Strategy Satellite Provider Finalize Price with DPs Distribution Partners Multiple Iterations Determine Pricing Effects on Demand Strategy (elasticity) Negotiate Price with End - Users

38. WP4 - Communication Service pricing • Various price models have been explored • Factors that will finally determine the SwiftBroadband pricing policy include, but will not be limited to: • several pricing options and rates - finalised six months before the service launch • Pricing of ATS messaging will have to take into account the specialised and significant infrastructure and support facilities needed for an aeronautical service

39. WP4 – Enterprise (land) pricing • Charging for BGAN land-mobile services is volume sensitive. When purchased in bulk by way of a package- plan, prices for the background IP service can vary between US$3.75 to US$6.95 per Megabyte. • Voice services are not categorised according to traffic types and typically carry a charge of around a US1.00 per minute for regular circuit switched traffic.

40. Conclusions (1/2) • Initial SwiftBroadband services aimed at passenger and some airline applications • SwiftBroadband appears to have potential for ATS provision • Meets capacity requirements in COCR Phase 1 • Will not meet availability requirements as a primary means • Lack of satellite redundancy • Aircraft antenna coverage key holes when manoeuvring • Current lack of priority and pre-emption • IP versus ATN • Offers potential as complementary system • could have indirect benefit for ATS by handling more capacity consuming AOC applications

41. Conclusions (2/2) • Enhancements to BGAN infrastructure to enhance performance to meet ATS requirements possible • but investments need to be justified throughout supply chain • More information of the performance of SwiftBroadband will emerge as the service is introduced • Unresolved issues will probably be addressed through the ANASTASIA project