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THE MAIN EVENT THE 1979 HIT MOVIE WITH RYAN O’NEAL AND BARBRA STREISAND PowerPoint Presentation
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THE MAIN EVENT THE 1979 HIT MOVIE WITH RYAN O’NEAL AND BARBRA STREISAND

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THE MAIN EVENT THE 1979 HIT MOVIE WITH RYAN O’NEAL AND BARBRA STREISAND

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  1. THE MAIN EVENT THE 1979 HIT MOVIE WITH RYAN O’NEAL AND BARBRA STREISAND WOUT ULTEE RADBOUD UNIVERSITY NIJMEGEN

  2. THE CONTEMPORARY MAIN EVENT IN SOCIOLOGY IS ABOUT THE STUDY OF EVENTS : THE 2011 TURKU CONFERENCE STARRING ERIK, JANI, JUHO, MATTS & TORKILD

  3. THE MAIN EVENT IN SOCIOLOGY IN THE LAST DECADES : ADVANCES IN DATA COLLECTION EUROPEAN VALUES SURVEY WORLD VALUES SURVEY EUROPEAN SOCIAL SURVEY PROGRAM FOR INTERNATIONAL STUDENT ASSESSMENT (PISA) HOWEVER, ACCORDING TO METHODOLOGY TEXTBOOKS THESE DATA SETS HAVE THE DISADVANTAGE OF BEING LARGELY CROSS-SECTIONAL WHEREAS DYNAMIC DATA WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SEVERE TESTS OF HYPOTHESES

  4. COLLECTION OF DYNAMIC DATA MADE GREAT STRIDES TOO DYNAMIC DATA ARE THE MAIN EVENT IN SOCIOLOGY MAYER’S LIFE HISTORIES FOR VARIOUS BIRTH COHORTS IN GERMANY THE GERMAN (PROSPECTIVE) SOCIO-ECONOMIC PANEL THE BRITISH HOUSEHOLD PANEL THE NORDIC REGISTER-BASED-LIFE COURSE STUDIES

  5. I CONTRIBUTED TO THE COLLECTION OF MULTI-MOMENT, MULTI-ACTOR DATA IN THE NETHERLANDS RETROSPECTIVE SURVEYS IN 1992, 1998, 2000, 2003 AND 2009 ARTICLES AND DISSERTATIONS ON EDUCATIONAL TRAJECTORIES COUPLED CAREERS CAREER PEAKS BEING UNEMPLOYED, REMAINING UNEMPLOYED ? WHY DOES UNEMPLOYMENT COME IN COUPLES ? POLITICAL PARTY PREFERENCE OVER THE LIFE COURSE DRINKING AND SMOKING OVER THE LIFE COURSE SPORT ACTIVITIES OVER THE LIFE COURSE

  6. THE FILM THE MAIN EVENT WAS SUBTITLED A GLOVE STORY MY PRESENTATION IS NOT A LOVE STORY, BUT A GLOVE STORY THERE IS A TENSION BETWEEN CROSS-SECTIONAL RESEARCH AND THE DYNAMIC DATA PARADIGM DYNAMIC DATA ARE LOGICALLY SUPERIOR TO CROSS-SECTIONAL DATA YET THE EXTENT TO WHICH DYNAMIC DATA TURN OUT TO BE SUPERIOR TO CROSS-SECTIONAL DATA IN ACTUAL INSTANCES OF EMPIRICAL SOCIAL RESEARCH CANNOT BE DETERMINED IN ADVANCE THIS ALLOWS FOR A COMEBACK OF CROSS-SECTIONAL RESEARCH

  7. MAYER’S LIST OF UNFILLFILLED PROMISES OF DATA ON OCCUPATIONAL CAREERS AND HOUSEHOLD FORMATION AND DISSOLUTION IS QUITE LONG KARL ULRICH MAYER, PROMISES FULFILLED? A REVIEW OF 20 YEARS OF LIFE COURSE RESEARCH, ARCHIVES EUROPEÉNNES DE SOCIOLOGIE, 41(2000)259-282

  8. CRIMINAL CAREERS HAVE BEEN STUDIED FOR A LONG TIME BY CRIMINAL SOCIOLOGISTS GOTTFREDSON & HIRSCHI MAINTAIN THAT CRIME CAREER DATA HAVE SHOWN THAT THESE DATA ARE NOT NECESSARY IF TIME SERIES OF CROSS-SECTIONAL DATA ARE AVAILABLE (WITH A FEW RETROSPECTIVE MEASURES) MICHAEL GOTTFREDSON & TRAVIS HIRSCHI, THE METHODOLOGICAL ADEQUACY OF LONGITUDINAL RESEARCH ON CRIME, CRIMINOLOGY, 25(1987)581-614

  9. SO, UPON JUXTAPOSING THESE TWO COMMENTS ON THE DYNAMIC PARADIGM : HAS SOMETHING GONE WRONG ? WHAT HAS GONE WRONG ? HOW TO MAKE THINGS RIGHT ?

  10. PROGRESS IN SOCIOLOGY AND ANY OTHER ACADEMIC FIELD OCCURS ALONG THREE LINES : RESEARCH : DESIGN, DATA COLLECTION, ANALYSIS THEORIES AND HYPOTHESES PROBLEMS AND DOABLE QUESTIONS SO, THE DEGREE TO WHICH NEW DATA AMOUNT TO PROGRESS IS TO BE JUDGED BY THEIR CONTRIBUTION TO PROBLEM ARTICULATION AND THEORY FORMATION TO IMPROVE THE DYNAMIC DATA PARADIGM QUESTIONS AND THEORIES HAVE TO BE BROUGHT IN

  11. REGISTER-BASED LIFE-COURSE STUDIES IN PARTICULAR AND THE ANALYSIS OF DYNAMIC DATA IN GENERAL AMOUNT TO A PARADIGM WITH THREE WEAKNESSES

  12. FIRST WEAKNESS THE DYNAMIC PARADIGM TRUMPETS THAT THE QUESTIONS OF OTHER RESEARCH LINES FORM A TOXIC COCKTAIL OF QUESTIONS BUT WHEN BREAKING DOWN COMPOUND QUESTIONS INTO THEIR CONSTITUENT QUESTIONS IT MANAGES TO LOSE QUESTIONS

  13. THE (CROSS-SECTIONAL) QUESTION OF THE DECLINE OF THE PROPORTION OF A SOCIETY’S POPULATION THAT IS A CHURCH MEMBER IS NOT IDENTICAL TO THE (DYNAMIC) QUESTION OF THE INCREASE IN CHANCES THAT A SOCIETY’S CHURCH MEMBERS LEAVE CHURCH AFTER ALL, CHURCH MEMBERS AND UNCHURCHED PERSONS MAY DIFFER IN FERTILITY I TOO THINK THAT THE DYNAMIC QUESTION IS MORE TO THE POINT THAN THE CROSS-SECTIONAL ONE BUT DE GRAAF, NEED & ULTEE 2004, AFTER HAVING ANSWERED THE QUESTION OF CHURCH LEAVING FORGET THE QUESTION OF AGGREGATING CHURCH LEAVING INTO PROPORTIONS OF CHURCH MEMBERS

  14. SECOND WEAKNESS THE DYNAMIC PARADIGM IS IN SEARCH OF RESEARCH QUESTIONS ABOUT PHENOMENA X, Y AND Z THEREFORE, THE DANGER OF ‘EXHAUSTION’ ARISES INCOME OVER THE LIFE COURSE UNEMPLOYMENT OVER THE LIFE COURSE CRIME OVER THE LIFE COURSE SUICIDE OVER THE LIFE COURSE RELIGION OVER THE LIFE COURSE SELF-EMPLOYMENT OVER THE LIFE COURSE WHATEVER OVER THE LIFE COURSE

  15. RIGHT NOW IN THE NETHERLANDS, THE DYNAMIC PARADIGM IS BECOMING EXHAUSTED : HOW DOES SPORT ACTIVITY CHANGE OVER THE LIFE COURSE ? THE MAIN FINDINGS: PEOPLE STOP SPORT ACTIVITY AFTER LEAVING SCHOOL AND AFTER STARTING A HOUSEHOLD WITH SOMEONE ELSE HOW NECESSARY ARE FULL HISTORIES OF SPORTS ACTIVITIES HERE? PERSONS HARDLY EVER START A SPORT AGAIN AFTER HAVING STOPPED

  16. THIRD WEAKNESS THE DYNAMIC PARADIGM TAKES THE METHODOLOGICAL RECIPE OF ‘DO NOT SIMPY COLLECT CROSS-SECTIONAL DATA, BUT ALWAYS DYNAMIC DATA’ AS AN INTERESTING THEORY THAT THEORY IS TOO WEAK AND UNFALSIFIABLE THAT THEORY ‘SAYS’ THAT X, Y AND Z RESULT FROM SOME AGE EFFECT, SOME COHORT EFFECT AND/ORSOME PERIOD EFFECT

  17. HOW TO OVERCOME THESE WEAKNESSES ? WHICH THEORIES AND WHICH QUESTIONS ARE THERE TO TURN TO ?

  18. THE MAIN DEVELOPMENT IN THEORY FORMATION IN SOCIOLOGY IN THE PAST TWO OR THREE DECADES : THE RISE OF THE RATIONAL CHOICE APPROACH GOLDTHORPE INDICATED POSSIBILITIES FOR COOPERATION BETWEEN LARGE-SCALE DATA ANALYSIS AND THE RATIONAL CHOICE APPROACH THE RATIONAL CHOICE APPROACH IS TO EXPLAIN REGULARITIES ESTABLISHED IN EMPIRICAL SOCIAL RESEARCH

  19. I REGARD GOLDTHORPE'S PROPOSAL AS NOT SPECIFIC ENOUGH MY PROPOSAL AT THIS CONFERENCE : AN EXPLICIT GOAL IN REGISTER-BASED LIFE-COURSE STUDIES SHOULD BE THE EXPLANATION OF CROSS-SECTIONAL STATISTICAL REGULARITIES BY SEVERAL NOT FULLY COMPATIBLE HYPOTHESES EACH SPECIFYING ONE PROCESS BEHIND THIS REGULARITY

  20. I DO NOT EXPECT MUCH FROM RATIONAL CHOICE FOR THE DYNAMIC PARADIGM RATIONAL CHOICE APPROACHES ARE SHORT ON PROBLEMS WOUT ULTEE, DO RATIONAL CHOICE APPROACHES HAVE PROBLEMS? EUROPEAN SOCIOLOGICAL REVIEW 12(1996)167-180

  21. I TAKE AS THE PRIME ALTERNATIVE TO THE RATIONAL CHOICE APPROACH IN SOCIOLOGY EVOLUTIONARY SOCIOLOGY EVOLUTIONARY SOCIOLOGY IS BEST EXEMPLIFIED BY LENSKI’S OEUVRE LENSKI’S 1966 MONOGRAPH POWER AND PRIVILEGE

  22. THERE ALSO IS LENSKI’S TEXTBOOK HUMAN SOCIETIES, AN INTRODUCTION TO MACROSOCIOLOGY FIRST EDITION IN 1970 WITH AN 11TH REVISED EDITION IN 2009 AND THERE IS LENSKI’S TREATISE ECOLOGICAL-EVOLUTIONARY THEORY FROM 2005

  23. WHEREAR GOLDTHORPE PLEADED IN FAVOUR OF A MARRIAGE BETWEEN RAT AND QAD: A MARRIAGE OF RATIONAL CHOICE THEORY AND THE QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS OF LARGE-SCALE DATA SETS I HERE ARGUE IN FAVOUR OF A MARRIAGE BETWEEN EVSO AND CDDA: A MARRIAGE OF EVOLUTIONARY SOCIOLOGY AND THE COLLECTION OF DYNAMIC DATA

  24. BUT IF RATIONAL CHOICE APPROACHES ARE NOT CONCERNED WITH THE QUESTIONS OF SOCIOLOGY, IS EVOLUTIONISM CONCERNED WITH THE QUESTIONS OF SOCIOLOGY? LENSKI’S EVOLUTIONIARY SOCIOLOGY IS CONCERNED WITH QUESTIONS OF SOCIETAL INEQUALITY AND CONFLICTS WITHIN SOCIETIES, SO THAT IS OK ! BUT DOES SOCIETAL INEQUALITY HAVE ANYTHING TO DO WITH THE PHENOMENA BIOLOGICAL THEORIES OF EVOLUTION SEEK TO EXPLAIN ?

  25. THE GENERAL PUBLIC HAS THE IMPRESSION THAT SOCIOLOGY IS CONCERNED WITH EVERYTHING AND ANYTHING AND THEREFORE WITH NOTHING LEADING SOCIOLOGISTS LIKE BOUDON HAVE FOSTERED THIS IDEA I HAVE COMBATTED IT IN A 1992 DUTCH-LANGUAGE TEXTBOOK WITH THE BATTLE CRY ‘SOCIOLOGY HAS THREE MAIN QUESTIONS’

  26. SOCIOLOGY’S THREE MAIN QUESTIONS ARE : INEQUALITY (FERGUSON, MARX) COHESION (HOBBES, DURKHEIM) RATIONALIZATION (SMITH, WEBER) WITH EACH MAIN QUESTION COMPRISING A CLUTCH OF DOABLE QUESTIONS

  27. SO, THE DYNAMIC PARADIGM WILL MAKE PROGRESS TO THE EXTENT THAT THE CROSS-SECTIONAL EMPIRICAL REGULARITIES IT SEEKS TO EXPLAIN ARE ATTUNED TO IMPORTANT SUBPROBLEMS OF SOCIOLOGY’S THREE MAIN QUESTIONS

  28. THE DUTCH SCIENCE FOUNDATION IN THE EARLY 2000s DECLARED THE RATIONAL CHOICE APPROACH ‘OUT’ AND AWARDED VAST GRANTS FOR THE EVOLUTIONARY APPROACH IN ANTHROPOLOGY, BIOLOGY, ECONOMICS, PSYCHOLOGY AND SOCIOLOGY THIS POLICY STATEMENT AND THE SPONSORED CONFERENCES I VISITED MADE ME RETHINK MY BATTLE CRY OF SOCIOLOGY’S THREE MAIN QUESTIONS AND THE HYPOTHESES OF EVOLUTIONARY SOCIOLOGY

  29. THE THREE LESS ABSTRACT MACRO HYPOTHESES OF EVOLUTIONARY SOCIOLOGY THE TECHNOLOGY HYPOTHESIS THE IDEOLOGY HYPOTHESIS THE RESOURCES HYPOTHESIS THESE HYPOTHESES CAN BE DERIVED FROM THE INDIVIDUAL ASSUMPTION THAT PEOPLE USE THEIR RESOURCES TO FURTHER THEIR CHANCES IN LIFE THAT IS RATIONAL CHOICE, BUT EVOLUTIONARY SOCIOLOGY IS MUCH RICHER IN BRIDGE ASSUMPTIONS THESE ASSUMPTIONS ALLOW FOR MOVING FROM THE MICRO-LEVEL TO THE MACRO-LEVEL SOMETHING THAT HARDLY HAPPENS IN A PROPER WAY WITHIN THE RATIONAL CHOICE APPROACH

  30. LENSKI’S TECHNOLOGY HYPOTHESIS: THE HIGHER A SOCIETY’S LEVEL OF TECHNOLOGY, THE LARGER THE DIFFERENCES IN STANDARD OF LIVING BETWEEN ITS MEMBERS, THE LESS INTERGENERATIONAL STANDARD OF LIVING MOBILITY, AND THE LESS INTERGENERATIONAL MOBILITY AS TO RESOURCES MAKING FOR A HIGHER STANDARD OR LIVING THIS HYPOTHESIS IS CONTRADICTED BY RESEARCH RESULTS COMPARING AGRARIAN AND INDUSTRIAL SOCIETIES

  31. THIS CONTRADICTION IS EXPLAINED BY THE IDEOLOGY HYPOTHESIS: THE MORE ACTIVIST THE POLITICAL IDEOLOGY DOMINANT IN (POST)INDUSTRIAL SOCIETIES, THE SMALLER INCOME INEQUALITIES WILL BE AND THE MORE INTERGENERATIONAL SOCIAL MOBILITY WILL OCCUR THIS HYPOTHESIS MORE OR LESS CAPTURES ‘THE NORDIC MODEL’

  32. THE MAIN AND ABSTRACT MACRO-HYPOTHESIS OF THE EVOLUTIONARY APPROACH: THE MORE A POPULATION OF A PARTICULAR SPECIES IS ADAPTED TO ITS ENVIRONMENT THE HIGHER THE REPRODUCTIVE SUCCESS OF THIS POPULATION WILL BE HERE WE HAVE THE AGE-OLD FIGHT ABOUT DARWINISM THE ISSUE OF WHETHER ADAPTATION CAN BE DEFINED AND MEASURED INDEPENDENT OF REPRODUCTIVE SUCCESS

  33. THE ADAPTATION OF A POPULATION TO ITS ENVIRONMENT IS INDICATED BY THE LEVEL OF A SOCIETY’S TECHNOLOGY THIS IS SPECIFIED IN BRIDGE ASSUMPTIONS OF EVOLUTIONARY SOCIOLOGY : FOOD OBTAINED BY HUNTING AND GATHERING FOOD OBTAINED BY WORKING GARDENS WITH HOES FOOD OBTAINED BY PLOWING FIELDS THE SHIFT FROM ANIMATE TO INANIMATE ENERGY IN (POST)INDUSTRIAL SOCIETIES FIGURE TAKEN FROM LENSKI, ECOLOGICAL-EVOLUTIONARY THEORY, page 84

  34. THERE ARE VARIOUS INDICATORS FOR THE REPRODUCTIVE SUCCESS OF POPULATIONS A LARGER POPULATION A HIGHER POPULATION DENSITY A LONGER LIFE SPAN OF THE AVERAGE POPULATION MEMBER LESS STARVATION OF POPULATION MEMBERS A BETTER HEALTH FOR THE AVERAGE POPULATION MEMBER MORE OFF-SPRING (REACHING THE AGE OF REPRODUCTION)

  35. THIS TABLE IS FROM LENSKI’S HUMAN SOCIETIES, page 70 AND MAINLY USES MURDOCK’S ETHNOGRAPHIC ATLAS IN 1970 I COULD READ THIS TABLE BUT IT TOOK ME DECADES TO SEE THE PARAMOUNT IMPORTANCE OF THIS TABLE FOR ECOLOGICAL- EVOLUTIONARY THEORY IT ANSWERED THE MAIN QUESTION OF THIS THEORY, IT WAS A TABLE ABOUT REPRODUCTIVE SUCCESS

  36. QUESTIONS ABOUT REPRODUCTIVE SUCCESS MAY BE VIEWED ALS QUESTIONS ABOUT RATIONALIZATION PROCESSES BUT WEBER NEVER WAS CONCERNED WITH POPULATION DENSITY SO, THE EVOLUTIONARY APPROACH MADE ME DISCOVER NEW SUBPROBLEMS OF RATIONALIZATION OR PERHAPS EVEN A NEW MAIN QUESTION: POPULATION SIZE AND GROWTH

  37. DOES EVOLUTIONARY THEORY BYPASS INEQUALITY QUESTIONS ? INEQUALITY QUESTIONS FOLLOW UP ON THE CORE OF EVOLUTIONARY THEORY IF THERE IS A ‘STRUGGLE FOR LIFE’ OUTCOMES OF STRUGGLES ARE TO BE MEASURED AS THE UNEQUAL OUTCOMES OF COMPETITIONS BETWEEN THE MEMBERS OF SOCIETIES THESE STRUGGLES ARE NOT SIMPLY ABOUT LIFE AND DEATH THEY ARE ABOUT ANY SCARCE RESOURCE INCLUDING HEALTH AND INCOME

  38. I AM A SOCIOLGIST AND SOCIOLOGY IS ABOUT SOCIETIES IN THE PLURAL SO I WANT COMPARABLE DATA FOR DIFFERENT SOCIETIES AT FIRST SIGHT I DO NOT WANT DYNAMIC DATA ON INDIVIDUALS AND IF I WOULD WANT DYNAMIC DATA, I WANT DYNAMIC DATA ON SOCIETIES

  39. SO, I LIKE THE EUROPEAN VALUES SURVEYS AND OTHER CROSS-SECTIONAL STUDIES COMPRISING A RANGE OF COUNTRIES SOCIOLOGY IS ABOUT SOCIETIES IN THE PLURAL AND THESE DATA SETS INVOLVE A LARGE NUMBER OF SOCIETIES

  40. BUT THEN, OF COURSE, THE OVERARCHING QUESTION OF THE EUROPEAN VALUES SURVEY WAS OR IS WHY DO PEOPLE NOWADAYS DO THE THINGS THE POPE FORBIDS THEM TO DO? THAT IS A SOCIETAL QUESTION RESTING ON FALSE AND MISLEADING SUPPOSITIONS

  41. AND IT IS SILLY TO EXPLAIN ATTITUDES TOWARDS DIVORCE BY A PERSON’S CURRENT MARITAL STATUS ACCORDING TO A DATA SET THAT DOES NOT INDICATE WHETHER THIS PERSON’S MARRIAGE IS THE FIRST, SECOND OR THIRD ONE AND WHETHER THIS PERSON HAS BEEN COHABITING WITH OTHER PERSONS THAN THE CURRENT SPOUSE

  42. MAYER’S LIFE COURSE DATA ARE ON GERMANY, THAT IS, ONE COUNTRY ONLY THEY ARE DATA AT THE INDIVIDUAL LEVEL OF COURSE, THEY PERTAIN TO NON-OVERLAPPING BIRTH COHORTS TOO BUT ARE DATA FOR DIFFERENT COHORTS A PROPER SUBSTITUTE FOR DATA FROM DIFFERENT SOCIETIES ? YES