Estimating integrative effects of the H’s on salmon populations

1. Estimating integrative effects of the H’s on salmon populations

2. Physical processes Land use Habitat effects Hatchery effects Harvest effects Other ecological effects Life-cycle model (effects on abundance, productivity, diversity, spatial structure)

3. Integrative Analyses in Recovery Planning • Technical questions in the TRT/Shared Strategy Watershed Technical Guidance Document address integrative assessment. • The TRT is providing technical analyses to integrate the effects of the H’s as part of the Snohomish Case Study.

4. Snohomish watershed case study: overall purpose • Determine if we can actually use the Technical Guidance in a real watershed recovery plan. • Identify priority habitat, hatchery and harvest management actions that are consistent with achieving salmon population targets. • Assist the Snohomish Forum in identifying priority areas for action and prioritizing types of actions needed to improve VSP for the Snohomish chinook populations.

5. Snohomish watershed case study: participants • King County, Snohomish County • Tulalip Tribes • WDFW • Seattle City Light • City of Everett • NOAA Fisheries • Snohomish Technical Committee

6. Structure of Snohomish watershed planning groups Technical Committee Policy Development Committee Forum Ecological Analysis for Salmon Conservation Socioeconomic Analysis Goals Develop conservation scenarios Selection of conservation scenario for inclusion in plan Evaluate conservation scenarios using biological criteria

7. How Does the Guidance Document Help This Process? • Ecological Analysis • Questions guide compilation of information • Development of Scenarios • Scenarios are based on hypotheses about how the system works • Evaluation of Scenarios • VSP is the focus for assessing population status

8. Physical processes Land use Habitat effects Hatchery effects Harvest effects Other ecological effects Life-cycle model (effects on abundance, productivity, diversity, spatial structure)

9. Life-cycle models—estimating cumulative effects of suites of actions Egg Fry Smolt Adult

10. Life-cycle models—estimating cumulative effects of suites of actions Egg e.g., peak flows, sediment, temperature Fry e.g., peak flows, temperature, riparian condition, juvenile rearing capacity, hatchery interactions Smolt e.g., juvenile rearing capacity, hatchery fish, estuarine/marine habitat conditions, harvest Adult e.g., peak or low flows, temperature, sediment, spawning habitat capacity

11. Hypothetical alternative action sets • Improve riparian condition, reduce competition for spawning habitat with hatchery fish, adult harvest unchanged • In addition to #1, improve estuarine & floodplain habitat accessibility, reduce effects of competition with hatchery juveniles, reduce harvest in short term, increase harvest as habitat capacity increases.

12. Hypothetical alternative action set I Harvest management plan I improve riparian condition improve hatchery-wild spawner interactions

13. Hypothetical alternative action set II Harvest management plan II improve riparian condition improve hatchery-wild juvenile & spawner interactions

14. Example of integrative model results habitat/harvest/hatchery action alternative II Population size (or growth rate or diversity) habitat/harvest/hatchery action alternative I years

15. Physical processes W-shed group Land/water use PSC PFMC PSSMP BRAP HSRG Habitat effects ESA PSSMP ESA Hatchery effects Harvest effects Life-cycle model (effects on VSP) Other ecological effects

16. Existing groups developing alternatives • Habitat: watershed groups • Harvest: co-managers, Puget Chinook Harvest Management Plan • Hatchery: co-managers and HSRG Regional Reviews

17. Next steps—development of alternatives The TRT will work with co-managers, watershed groups, and other interested parties to develop sets of alternative actions in harvest, habitat and hatchery management that can be used in integrative analyses

18. Example of integrative model results: adding multiple population risk levels habitat/harvest/hatchery action alternative II Population size (or growth rate or diversity) habitat/harvest/hatchery action alternative I years

19. Questions for Development Committee • What are the key points of interface where scenarios combining actions across the H’s can be developed?