WNA Fuel Market Report Part Two - Supply. Name – Sashi Davies Position - Head of Marketing, Extract Resources. WNA Symposium 12 th September 2013. Uranium supply – demand sources. Uranium mining. Secondary sources. Reactor related uranium demand. Additional demand. SUPPLY. DEMAND.
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Name – Sashi Davies
Position - Head of Marketing, Extract Resources
12th September 2013
Reactor related uranium demand
Production was substantially ahead of reactor requirements until 1985, but has since fallen below. Since 1985, requirements have exceeded production by over 450,000 tU. The difference was covered by inventories and other secondary sources
Kazakhstan accounts for most incremental primary supply globally since 2005.
Main risks hampering the development of
the biggest U mining projects
Secondary supply projections do not include commercial inventory changes.
Expectations of secondary supply remain high.
The 2013 end of the US-Russia HEU Agreement results in nearly 8ktU/yr less supply.
Reference Scenario supply in 2030 is about 2ktU less than in the 2011 report.
Lower expected US DOE, ERU&MOX, Russian supply is largely offset by greater underfeeding.
Compared with the 2011 report, uranium requirement projections have fallen.
The greater uncertainty in the prospects for nuclear power have greatly impacted expectations of future mine development.
On current expectations for existing and future capacity, the market should remain balanced to about 2023.
After 2023, the depletion of existing mines and the reduced numbers of expected new mines results in the need for capacity to be developed from the ‘Supply Pipeline’.
Capacity is sufficient to meet conversion requirements till 2017.
Capacity is assumed in the projection to operate at 70% utilisation. The prospect of capacity shortfalls should incentivise converters to increase utilisation %.
In the longer term, new capacity will be required.